Can Padres Maintain Lethal Offensive Attack in Pitcher-Friendly Park?

The 2015 San Diego Padres actually have an offense, which is a lot different than the 2014 Padres, whose lineup was just plain offensive.

Last April, the Padres hit the fourth-fewest home runs (14) and ranked last in runs scored (74) on their way to finishing third worst in homers and dead last in runs scored.

This April? Well, San Diego hit 23 homers, third most in the NL, and scored a whopping 105 runs to lead the Senior Circuit. Although the club's pace has slowed some in May, the Padres rank tied for 16th in homers and seventh in runs in the majors through their first 34 games.

That's quite the turnaround thanks to first-year general manager A.J. Preller, who went to work almost immediately this past offseason to rebuild an offense on the fly that also placed rock bottom in all three of the triple-slash stats (.226/.292/.342) a year ago.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The operative theory was that the Padres already had the pitching to become contenders in short order, thanks to a rotation featuring Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy. To that, Preller added the consistent, durable James Shields for a cool $75 million, and a last-minute swap for closer Craig Kimbrel shored up the bullpen, too.

But the crux of this makeover is the trades for outfielders Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers, as well as catcher Derek Norris and third baseman Will Middlebrooks.

While Middlebrooks hasn't done much (.194 BA) and Kemp has slumped of late (.672 OPS), the much-improved offense has unquestionably been a huge part of San Diego's rebound. Even after having lost two straight entering play Wednesday, the Padres sit at .500 (17-17) and right in the thick of things in the NL West.

Not bad at all for a team coming off four consecutive losing campaigns.

The question is, can the Padres bats keep hitting throughout the six-month grind while playing half the time in arguably the most pitcher-friendly ballpark around?

Petco Park has a reputation—and a well-deserved one at that—for turning the production of power hitters into something resembling that of a utility infielder.

Here's a rundown of Petco's park factor for runs scored and home runs over the past five seasons, as well as in 2015 so far, according to ESPN.com:

SEASON	RUNS FACTOR (RANK)	HOME RUN FACTOR (RANK)
2010	0.882 (26)	0.856 (22)
2011	0.819 (28)	0.862 (23)
2012	0.854 (26)	0.626 (28)
2013	0.831 (30)	0.936 (17)
2014	0.826 (29)	0.808 (24)
2015	0.992 (15)	1.043 (14)

As a reminder, a park-factor rating of 1.000 means the stadium plays neutral, and anything below that number indicates a park that is favorable to pitchers. As you can see, Petco has ranked in the bottom half of MLB in home run factor from 2010-14 and in the bottom five in runs factor. It's basically where offense has gone to die.

But things look different so far in 2015, don't they? Granted, this is drawing on data from just six weeks and a grand total of 16 games played at Petco Park, so let's not get carried away just yet. The early returns, however, certainly are promising and present the possibility that Petco—where some of the fences were moved in prior to the 2013 campaign and again (slightly) before this season—might not play quite as pitcher-centric as it has in the past.

Want some more proof? San Diego's triple-slash stats at home (.250/.306/.400) look almost identical to the road numbers (.254/.315/.391).

A lot of that can be attributed to Kemp (.306/.343/.452 at home), Upton (.356/.400/.729), Myers (.281/.324/.469) and Norris (.304/.328/.482). Of those four, the only one who isn't hitting better at Petco than on the road is Myers, which is a good sign they can keep this up.

Denis Poroy/Getty Images

One thing to keep in mind with regard to the Padres' offensive performance going forward is that all of these aforementioned lineup additions are right-handed hitters.

San Diego started off like gangbusters against lefty pitchers, posting an .896 OPS against them through late April, but they've cooled since to .258/.327/.364. Enough, in fact, that the club actually has as good of a line against right-handers (.251/.306/.404). While it's not as if the Padres are wrecking righties, they're at least showing they aren't entirely exposed against them or simply overwhelmed by a club with a righty-heavy bullpen in the late innings. 

Ultimately, the Padres are likely to cool off from this hot start with the sticks, as they have somewhat since the start of May. Hey, Petco can get the best of 'em.

But here's the good news: As long as Kemp, Upton, Myers and Norris, especially, can stay healthy and continue to put bat on ball, San Diego should have enough offense to stick around the playoff picture.

Remember, after ranking the worst in the NL a year ago, the Padres lineup doesn't need to be best in the NL the rest of the way. Rather, if Nos. 1 through 9 are merely league average or so, the club will see a significant improvement on offense—and in the standings.

Statistics are accurate through Tuesday, May 11, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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