Preakness Odds 2015: Latest Vegas Betting Lines for Pimlico Field
The 2015 Preakness Stakes offers more certainty than the Triple Crown's second leg typically does. The favored trio of American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund came out on top in the 18-horse Kentucky Derby field, a surprising occurrence given the proliferation of talented challengers at Churchill Downs.
Regardless, that threesome will once again rule the headlines at Pimlico. The two-week lapse between the Derby and Preakness is hardly much of a breather, which often leads to a thin field at Baltimore. Apart from a couple of local challengers, it's hard to envision anyone butting their way into the top three.
Using the betting lines from Odds Shark as a guide, let's highlight some of the storylines surrounding the top horses headed into the Preakness.
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| American Pharoah | 5-6 |
| Firing Line | 5-1 |
| Dortmund | 11-2 |
| Materiality (pending) | 16-1 |
| Danzig Moon | 20-1 |
| Divining Rod | 22-1 |
| Bodhisattva | 40-1 |
| Stanford (pending) | 40-1 |
| Grand Bili (pending) | 50-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 66-1 |
Horses to Watch
The Favorite: American Pharoah
Bob Baffert's horse was a slight favorite at Churchill Downs, but having captured the Triple Crown's first leg, American Pharoah's odds have risen considerably. But despite a shiny 5-0 career record in graded stakes races, some, such as the Boston Globe's Joe Sullivan, have pointed out Pharoah's relatively pedestrian Beyer Figure, a time adjustment that takes into account the speed of a racing surface:
"Beyer has calculated American Pharoah’s final time of 2:03.02 in the Kentucky Derby as 105. That’s the exact same figure he ran when winning the Arkansas Derby.
Beyer said the average winning figure of the Derby is 108. Beyer would have to go back in time to 1973 to calculate Secretariat, but the Triple Crown winner still holds the record for the Derby at 1:59 2/5. That would probably translate to a Beyer Figure in the mid 120s. Beyer did estimate a figure for Secretariat’s 31-length victory in the Belmont at 139.
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That below-average time would seemingly reflect poorly on Pharoah's long-term chances at capturing the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. However, horse racing analyst Randy Moss also pointed out a faster-than-average field that Pharoah beat, as well as slower track conditions that may have artificially deflated his raw time:
If anything, the slow Beyer Figure would raise more concern for the Belmont, as Pharoah's relatively pedestrian finishing kick at the Derby might bode ominously for his chances in New York. Like most horses, Pharoah has never undergone the type of grind the Triple Crown demands, as he has yet to go less than three weeks between races.
But that doesn't necessarily apply to Pimlico, which Baffert dubbed the easiest leg to win. With his top challengers having raced at Churchill Downs and thus unable to benefit from the additional rest some Belmont challengers will have, Pharoah is a deserving favorite.
Top Challenger: Firing Line
The distinction of Pharoah's top challenger is between Firing Line and Dortmund, another Baffert horse. However, though Dortmund suffered his first loss at Churchill Downs, Firing Line might be the more intriguing horse, as the Derby was his third runner-up finish in four graded stakes starts.
Indeed, Simon Callaghan's horse is becoming the perpetual bridesmaid, as he has lost to Dortmund twice and Pharoah once. His only graded stakes win game at the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in March, which featured a relatively pedestrian field.
Firing Line's jockey, Gary Stevens, lamented the fact that his horse was not able to take advantage of a fairly benign pace down the stretch at Churchill Downs, per the U-T San Diego's Ed Zieralski:
"We got away from Dortmund in a matter of two or three strides, so there was one down and now the battle was between Firing Line and American Pharoah. Lots has been made of Firing Line not switching leads, and why he did not switch, I don’t know. I wasn’t prepared for it because he had never shown me any inclination that he wouldn’t before, but he was digging hard, he was trying.
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Indeed, Firing Line is a clearly talented horse, probably on the same level as Pharoah and Dortmund, but one who has simply failed to deliver against those particular competitors. Even more painfully, it's not as if Firing Line has been the best of the rest against the top two three-year-olds, as he has yet to have anyone run away from him:
Dortmund's front-running style could make him dangerous at the short track, but Firing Line was also the more impressive horse at Churchill Downs. If the two-week turnaround is manageable for him, look for Firing Line to emerge as the top challenger to Pharoah down the stretch.
Dark Horse: Materiality
One of the top second-tier contenders at Churchill Downs, Materiality was done in by a poor post draw and a slow start. And yet, despite floundering at the back of the pack for much of the race, his strong finishing kick landed him in sixth, making him a horse who could be dangerous with a more favorable draw:
However, it's not entirely clear if Materiality is going to run at all in the Preakness, as trainer Todd Pletcher often opts to have his horses race the bookend legs and skip Pimlico. According to Daily Racing Form's David Grening, Pletcher is at least letting Materiality receive serious consideration by having him gallop ahead of a decision:
"Materiality, the Florida Derby winner who finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby after a hesitant start, looked nice and smooth and relaxed during a 1 3-8-miles gallop shortly after 7:30 a.m. over the Belmont Park training track. Though his trainer, Todd Pletcher, is often reluctant to run horses back in two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, Materiality is giving him and his owners serious reason to consider it.
“He looks as good as he can look,” Pletcher said. “He hasn’t missed a beat since he came back. His appetite has been excellent, his energy level’s been good, he’s been galloping really well. I’ll talk to the connections and make a decision here soon.”
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If Materiality does run, he'll be the top second-tier horse in what is expected to be a much smaller field than the Kentucky Derby. His upside is quite appealing, for while Churchill Downs was just his second graded stakes start and fourth overall, Materiality's times belie a horse with the talent to overcome his inexperience. Moreover, Materiality was sired by Afleet Alex, who happened to win the Preakness 10 years ago.
The Florida Derby champ was a trendy sleeper pick at the Kentucky Derby, and if he does remain in the field, expect him to receive similar buzz once again. If he can remain closer to the front over the first half of the race, perhaps that finishing kick will propel him past the favorites.
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