Analyzing American Pharoah's Triple Crown Odds Ahead of Preakness Stakes

Does the Preakness Stakes stand any chance against American Pharoah's dash to a Triple Crown?

It sounds like an odd question, right? By most measures, though, the Bob Baffert-trained horse won't have any issues at Pimlico after turning it on down the stretch at the Kentucky Derby to best a deep field despite a poor starting post position.

Over at Odds Shark, American Pharoah rests at (-120) in the "yes" and "no" categories regarding whether he can win the Triple Crown. It's interesting, because he's the major favorite at Pimlico, coming in at 5-6 odds.

For good reason, too.

The Preakness Stakes more often than not is a much weaker field than the prior event at Churchill Downs. The 1 3/16 mile-scamper is unkind to losers of the Kentucky Derby, and many owners would rather save their top horses for a better chance at the Belmont Stakes.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

So long as American Pharoah stays healthy and runs well, the current field doesn't offer much in the way of suspense. Fellow Baffert horse Dortmund makes the confirmed list, but he suffered his first loss at Churchill Downs.

Firing Line will be there, but the element of surprise is no longer in trainer Simon Callaghan's corner. Materiality and Carpe Diem out of Todd Pletcher's stable are recognizable names still pending, but they fizzled in the Kentucky Derby.

There are new faces, too, such as Divining Rod and Bodhisattva, but a horse who didn't participate in the Kentucky Derby hasn't won the Preakness Stakes since 2007.

USA Today's Jennie Rees offers one of many reasons American Pharoah won't have any issues against this developing field, which applies to the final leg of the Triple Crown, too: "He's still lightly raced, with three starts at two and only two Derby preps. What might have seemed a detriment going into the Derby is now a positive because he's a fresh horse."

During recent practices, Baffert made a point to stress his top two horses remain in great form ahead of the Preakness Stakes, per Rees for the Courier-Journal:

"

Pharoah, he’s still floating over the ground, looked like he was really into it. We just let them pick up their gallop a little bit the last half and they went really well. Dortmund was getting really aggressive with Dana (Barnes). But they looked good. They were traveling really well over it. They look like energy-wise they still have it. You can tell by their brightness and the way they carry themselves to the track.

"

There's little reason to doubt American Pharoah going to Baltimore, not with so many dominant victories to his name on fresh legs. Not only does he receive training from a legend such as Baffert, he also receives guidance from jockey Victor Espinoza up top, who guided California Chrome to near-Triple Crown legendary status last year.

Pimlico offers a new challenge for American Pharoah, especially if a speedy horse lines up outside. But he answered more questions than created them out of a poor starting position at Churchill Downs.

There, it might not have been the sexiest of finishes for such a dominant horse, but questions about American Pharoah's big-race experience were answered against what many consider the deepest field in years.

More concerning to his Triple Crown dreams is the Belmont Stakes, where any holdovers who watch the Preakness from the sidelines will be fresh. It's impossible to know where American Pharoah's endurance will be by then—fresh legs with few races under the belt or not.

Where things stand now, though, it's silly to throw money at anything other than American Pharoah winning the Preakness and the Triple Crown, especially the former. All of Baffert's three Kentucky Derby winners so far have gone on to win the Preakness.

There's no doubt American Pharoah touts the talent to win the final leg of the pursuit and settle a 37-year drought, too, especially with Espinoza up top one-year removed from almost pulling off the feat.

Matched with as much hype, if not more, than California Chrome last year, American Pharoah might have the juice to turn things on down the stretch and end the drought—the same feat he accomplished at Churchill Downs.

Right now, Las Vegas is right on the money with the lines.

Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.