Preakness Odds 2015: Outlook for Each Horse Prior to 2nd Triple Crown Race
The good news: American Pharoah got the job done in the first leg of the Triple Crown.
The bad news: American Pharoah will face one of the toughest Preakness fields in recent memory.
Eschewing the recent tradition of skipping out on the second race in favor of resting their horse for the Belmont, the owners of Derby contenders Dortmund and Firing Line have entered the field. Dortmund led much of the early portion of the Derby before falling off in third place, and Firing Line was competitive enough to stick within a length.
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Add in Carpe Diem and Materiality—both pre-Derby sleepers—and the 13 entrants for Saturday's race are no joke. It won't be the easy walk through to the Belmont we saw last year for California Chrome. In fact, with a slightly shorter race length, American Pharoah might have a harder time taking the second leg than the first.
With that in mind, here is a quick look at the full field, power ranked by their likelihood of winning.
Preakness Power Rankings
1. American Pharoah (5-6)
This is American Pharoah's race to lose. The colt has been brilliant over the past year, blasting nearly every field he's entered. His "worst" win was probably at the Derby, which featured a massive field that was tough to navigate.
With only 12 other horses to contend with, Pharoah is the clear favorite. Bob Baffert horses have gone on to win the Preakness each of his first three times going through this process. Jockey Victor Espinoza also has experience pushing an elite talent to the front, as he pulled off the back-to-back with California Chrome a year ago.
As is always the case, the Derby winner has a far higher likelihood of winning the Preakness than the Belmont. Look for American Pharoah to figure it out.
2. Firing Line (5-1)
Firing Line was a bit of a surprise at Churchill Downs, getting off to a solid early start and moving with the pack the rest of the way. For most of the race, he was on par if not better than American Pharoah. The final push from Espinoza helped put Pharoah over the top, but the shorter track may work in Firing Line's favor.
3. Dortmund (6-1)
Undefeated before the Kentucky Derby, Dortmund ran out of gas down the stretch of his biggest race. After being the leader of the top threesome for much of the early going, Dortmund wound up three lengths behind as his ride tapered off.
Like Firing Line, Dortmund might be better off in the shorter race. It's nonetheless surprising to see him in the field given Baffert's chance at a Triple Crown with Pharoah. Seeing his two prized horses splitting the first legs of the Triple Crown would be awfully interesting.
4. Carpe Diem (12-1)
A 10th-place finisher in the Derby getting 12-1 odds? Count me out. That said, Carpe Diem was a stealth sleeper heading into Churchill Downs for good reason. He took the Tampa Bay Derby and Bluegrass Stakes in fine fashion and still has the Todd Pletcher seal of approval.
If you don't think Pletcher would relish knocking off Baffert's big Triple Crown hope, you've got another thing coming.
5. Competitive Edge (14-1)
I can't possibly think of a more proper name. Competitive Edge, another Pletcher-trained horse, enters having won each of his four previous events and remains a bit of a mystery after skipping out on the Kentucky Derby. Instead, Competitive Edge earned a dominant win in the Pat Day Mile to continue his winning streak.
Bred from 2010 Derby winner Super Saver, Competitive Edge has a chance to play the spoiler. He's at least worth a look at 14-1.
6. Materiality (16-1)
You guessed it: another Pletcher-trained horse looking to atone for a disappointing Derby performance. After winning his first three career races, including the Florida Derby, Materiality dropped to sixth at Churchill Downs.
I'd be surprised if Materiality fared much better here given the strength of the field. It's telling that Carpe Diem finished worse than Materiality and has better odds. The extra pop necessary to win these races does not appear to be there.
7. Danzig Moon (20-1)
Relatively unheralded coming into the Triple Crown season, Danzig Moon wound up fifth at the Derby and turned in a strong showing. The horse has won only once in six career races, so an upset here probably isn't in order. But don't be surprised if Danzig Moon winds up on or near the podium when everything is said and done.
The Field
| Divining Rod | 22-1 |
| Mr Z | 33-1 |
| Bodhisattva | 40-1 |
| Stanford | 40-1 |
| Grand Bili | 50-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 50-1 |
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark
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