Which AFC East Team Has the Best Shot at Dethroning the Patriots?

For more than a decade, the New England Patriots have been utter rulers of the AFC East.

The Pats have won 11 of the last 12 division titles, posting a 57-15 record against the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. The one year they didn't win the division crown (2008), they didn't have All-Galaxy quarterback Tom Brady for virtually the entire season, and yet they still finished tied for first with an 11-5 record that year.

They've won the division by at least a three-game margin in eight of the remaining 11 seasons. It's been sheer domination.   

In 2014, New England finished three games up on Buffalo, four up on Miami and eight ahead of New York, but things have changed dramatically in all four of those places this offseason, and there are signs the Pats could be vulnerable. 

For starters, nobody's been able to successfully defend a Super Bowl championship since the Pats last did it 11 years ago. The fact that was Brady, Bill Belichick and New England suggests there's a better-than-usual chance we see this team defend, but only four of the last nine Super Bowl winners have won their divisions the following season. 

So faced with a slightly harder schedule than their divisional peers, and with a target on their back, it'll be very hard for the Pats to keep rolling in 2015. Making things worse, they lost top free agent Darrelle Revis to the rival Jets and were forced to part ways with key cogs Vince Wilfork and Shane Vereen. 

And yes, Brady is coming off a Super Bowl MVP performance, but he'll be 38 this season and will enter the year facing scrutiny and maybe even a suspension related to Deflategate. 

If indeed the AFC East is up for grabs, who has the best chance to make a run? Let's break it down. 

The Bills technically have the smallest gap to close

They finished 2014 "just" three games back of New England, but that's a little deceiving because Buffalo beat the Patriots' backups in a meaningless Week 17 matchup at Gillette Stadium. Realistically, they'd have probably lost that game had it mattered (prior to that, they had lost 13 straight against New England on the road). So the gap was still quite large. 

But Buffalo did finish the season 4-2 and maintained that momentum in the offseason. It hurt that the Bills lacked a first-round pick in this year's draft, but they brought in some major offensive weapons by acquiring LeSean McCoy, Percy Harvin and Charles Clay in March. Throw in potential starting quarterback Matt Cassel and controversial veteran guard Richie Incognito, and they've added four former Pro Bowlers to the offense this offseason. 

There are major questions, though.

Can McCoy bounce back from a difficult 2014 campaign while defying the odds as an aging back who has been worked heavily throughout his career? 

Can Harvin stay healthy and out of trouble? Can Incognito still be effective after nearly two years away from football? 

And most importantly: Can they get steadier play at the quarterback position? 

The league's No. 4-ranked defense from 2014 is now being run by defensive mastermind Rex Ryan, who has spent the last 10 years as a defensive coordinator (four in Baltimore) or head coach (six in New York) and has led units that ranked in the top 10 in nine of those 10 seasons. The only season not included? That would be 2013, when the Jets ranked 11th.

The Bills led the NFL with 54 sacks while being one of three defenses to record 30 or more takeaways last season, so there's really no reason to worry about the D. And with McCoy, Harvin and 2014 first-round receiver Sammy Watkins holding things down, there are plenty of weapons for Cassel and/or 2013 first-round quarterback EJ Manuel to work with. 

But Cassel, Manuel, Tyrod Taylor and Jeff Tuel are the only quarterbacks on Buffalo's roster. Taylor and Tuel have thrown a combined 94 passes in six NFL seasons, while the 32-year-old Cassel became nothing more than a backup the last two years with the Minnesota Vikings. Among 32 quarterbacks who have started at least 25 games the last four years, Cassel has the third-lowest passer rating. 

Manuel was supposed to be the answer when they drafted him 16th overall two years ago, but the Florida State product hasn't been able to hold the starting job in each of his first two seasons. He's completed just 58.6 percent of his passes since coming into the league, a rate which ranks 30th among 33 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 400 passes during that span. 

Quarterback	Comp.%	Rating
Brian Hoyer	56.0	77.6
Geno Smith	57.5	71.5
Derek Carr	58.1	76.6
EJ Manuel	58.6	78.5
Mike Glennon	58.8	83.7

Not exactly breaking news here, but the quarterback position is kind of important. The last two seasons featured more passing than any other stretch in NFL history, and it's no coincidence that the only team in the AFC East with a star quarterback has won each of the last six division titles. 

So unless the Bills can get a surprisingly strong third season from Manuel, a late-career rebound season from Cassel or something out of Hollywood from Taylor or Tuel, they're going to continue to have their work cut out for them in the AFC East in 2015. 

The Jets have a special vibe going

They always have, at least with New England. The Jets beat the mighty Pats three out of four times between 2008 and 2010, they beat them on the road in the 2010 playoffs, and they defeated them in overtime in 2013. 

Plus, they stole one of the Patriots' best players by signing Revis to a monster contract in March. And that wasn't the only big move the Jets made this offseason. They also traded for Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and brought back veteran cornerback Antonio Cromartie before adding arguably the best defensive player of the draft—defensive tackle Leonard Williams—with the sixth overall pick. 

With Williams and former first-round picks Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson—who were ranked second and third among all 3-4 ends by Pro Football Focus in 2014—the defensive front is loaded up to harass Brady (or any opposing quarterback, for that matter). A defense that ranked sixth in the league last year shouldn't be an issue, and new head coach Todd Bowles could breathe new life into that unit. 

The problem is that a similar Jets team with Richardson and Wilkerson and key offensive cogs Nick Mangold and Eric Decker won just four games last season. Yes, they've added Marshall and Revis, but the Bears got rid of Marshall for a reason (and they weren't the first team to do so), and ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if Revis alone can transform a team. 

The bigger problem is that the Jets are also still searching for a reliable franchise quarterback. Among 32 pivots who have started at least 25 games the last four years, Smith has the third-lowest passer rating, ranking one spot below Cassel. 

Quarterback	Rating
Blaine Gabbert	66.8
Geno Smith	71.5
Matt Cassel	74.0
Josh Freeman	75.1
Chad Henne	75.8

Beyond that, they have journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 32 and has been cast aside by three teams in each of the last three offseasons, and fourth-round rookie Bryce Petty. 

So the Jets actually face similar questions to those the Bills are dealing with. But they have even more room to make up. 

But the Dolphins are in the best position to leapfrog New England

Not only did Miami make the biggest splash of the offseason by signing All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, but the Dolphins also have the best quarterback not named Tom Brady in the AFC East.

Ryan Tannehill had the league's fifth-highest qualified completion percentage in 2014, and the 26-year-old should only continue to improve entering his fourth season, especially if youngsters Jarvis Landry and Ja'Wuan James keep progressing at receiver and tackle, respectively. 

Tannehill's sack and interception rates dropped significantly in 2014, while his touchdown rate, yards-per-attempt average and passer rating shot up. And it was encouraging to see that he got better as the season wore on. Just take a look at his numbers from the final nine games of the year:

Quarterback	Comp.%	Rating
1. Tony Romo	70.59	121.5
2. Aaron Rodgers	64.72	108.7
3. Ben Roethlisberger	67.98	108.5
4. Tom Brady	66.07	98.1
5. Ryan Tannehill	69.39	97.6
6. Drew Brees	68.96	96.7
7. Matt Ryan	67.71	95.6
8. Alex Smith	63.86	93.6
9. Andrew Luck	57.64	92.7
10. Russell Wilson	61.22	92.3

Miami also got rid of the overpriced Mike Wallace and replaced him with DeVante Parker in the first round of the draft, while adding weapons Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills to Tannehill's arsenal. 

This has the look of a talented, balanced team. The offense should click in a major way with Tannehill and his weapons as well as Lamar Miller—who was one of only three qualified backs to average more than 5.0 yards per carry last season—in the backfield. And the defense is primed to take off with that dynamic duo of Suh and Pro Bowl edge-rusher Cameron Wake. 

There's a chance nobody will slay the Patriots in 2015, especially if these three relatively talented teams beat each other up in their own matchups. But if I had to bet on one team making a run at a seemingly vulnerable New England team, there's no doubt it'd be the Dolphins. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon