Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DraftKings Studs and Duds for May 6th

The point guard play has been fascinating in the second round. In just six total games we've already seen three excellent point guards miss games.

Chris Paul's Clippers were able to upset the home Rockets. Austin Rivers "started at point guard" for his pops, but Blake Griffin ran the offense. The point forward recorded his third triple-double in just eight playoff games this season en route to an upset victory. Though nobody in Houston's lackluster crowd seemed to notice.

Before the games began last night, I expected John Wall to play and Mike Conley to sit. Neither held true. Despite strong all-around games from several Washington starters, Wall's Wizards were out-shined in the second half in Atlanta.

Mike Conley is the most steady and battle-tested point guard in the league to have never made an All-Star team. He missed Game 1 against the lauded Warriors. His backup, Nick Calathes, scored zero points. Conley played in a Phantom of the Opera mask last night and led the Grizzlies in points. It was the Warriors' first loss in Oracle Arena since the heart of Deflategate. 

Quick reminder: All three of the guys that I just mentioned were ruled ineligible/eligible very shortly before their games started. To avoid starting a player who might not get you any points, do a final sweep on twitter.com, draftkings.com, and rotogrinders.com just before that player's game starts. I promise you, it's worth it. 

Studs

Austin Rivers ($2,200) at Rockets

If Chris Paul does not play tonight, Austin Rivers is by far the best value on the board. Let's be clear: Austin Rivers is a terrible offensive basketball player. Just look at his career shot chart:

statmuse.com

For their shot charts, statmuse.com uses a simple color key: Darker is better. Not a whole lot of dark for kid Rivers. But that's irrelevant, because Austin Rivers seems oblivious to his shooting woes. He loves to jack up shots, and the Rockets love playing the percentages. They know that Austin Rivers is statistically the least likely Clipper to convert. I imagine he'll get plenty more open looks tonight even though he went 4-6 from downtown on Monday. 

If Rivers plays just 25 minutes in Chris Paul's absence, he should walk into a 20-point fantasy night with a much higher upside. Anything above 15 fantasy points would be a value at that basement-level price.

Iman Shumpert ($4,700) vs. Bulls 

Shump struggled in his first three playoff games for Cleveland, but he righted the ship in Game 4 against the Celtics and continued his solid play in Game 1 vs. the Bulls.

According to statmuse.com, Cleveland dominates when Iman Shumpert plays. His offensive rating so far this playoffs is 142.7. That means Cleveland is scoring nearly one-and-a-half points per possession with Shump on the floor. 

When LeBron plays defense at his highest level, he's Cleveland's best defender, but on a per-possession basis, Shumpert should be their most feared. He took floor mastermind Isaiah Thomas away late in the Celtics series and he'll jump back and forth between Rose and Butler in this series. With J.R. Smith and Kevin Love out, Shumpert should play no less then than 36 minutes tonight.

Blake Griffin ($10,300) at Rockets  

I already wrote about Blake here, here and here. So, in the interest of time, here's Blake's game by game draftkings.com fantasy totals:

statmuse.com

Play Blake Griffin! With apologies to Anthony Davis, Blake's been the best player in the playoffs.

Other Studs

Kyrie Irving ($8,800) vs. Bulls

James Harden ($10,200) vs. Clippers

Jamal Crawford ($4,500) at Rockets (if Chris Paul doesn't play)

Matt Barnes ($4,400) at Rockets

Trevor Ariza ($5,600) vs. Clippers

LeBron James ($11,200) vs. Bulls

Pau Gasol ($8,400) at Cavaliers

DeAndre Jordan ($7,700) at Rockets

Joakim Noah ($6,300) at Cavaliers

Duds

Derrick Rose ($7,500) at Cavaliers

This was a really tough decision because Derrick Rose was incredible in Game 1. He attacked the basket with his same old vicious determination. He threw twisting midair cross-court passes to wide-open shooters, and he ran the pick-and-roll to perfection. He also remains well below the draftkings.com asking price for a top-tier point guard at $7,400. 

However, Rose has shown to excel with extra rest throughout this postseason. He was playing after three days of rest on Monday. According to statmuse.com, in four games in which Rose has had two or more days of rest, the former MVP is averaging 43.4 fantasy points. On one day of rest, Rose averages just over 30 fantasy points per game.

The sample size is small, but it does make sense that a guy with a history of knee problems would thrive with ample rest. I imagine Derrick Rose will be very highly owned tonight. I will be looking elsewhere at point guard.

Terrence Jones ($5,000) vs. Clippers

Taj Gibson ($4,000) at Cavaliers

Tristan Thompson ($5,200) vs. Bulls

Here's a trio of mid-range power forwards that I'll be avoiding tonight. Terrence Jones was incredible in Game 1 of the Rockets' first-round series against the Mavs. The stretch 4 scored 19 points, grabbed nine boards and added six assists that night. In the five games since that night, Jones has a combined two assists. His minutes have dropped significantly because he is generally abused by opposing power forwards. He played just 16 minutes on Monday, and I don't expect him to top 24 minutes tonight.

According to the Chicago Tribune, Gibson has been playing through a left-shoulder injury. Guess what? It shows. The former terror off the bench has struggled throughout the playoffs. He doesn't have the same explosiveness on the glass. Plus Chicago's big-man rotation is so deep that they can afford to play Gibson less than 30 minutes a game.

Thompson played 37 minutes (his 10th-highest minute total of 2014-15) on Monday with Kevin Love out of the lineup. However, the offensive rebounding savant failed to reach double figures on the glass. If his struggles against one of the best rebounding teams in the league continue, he'll be of no fantasy value. The Cavs never call plays for Thompson. His best chance of a big fantasy night are offensive rebounds and putbacks, and that's neither sustainable nor reliable against the long Bulls front line.

Other Duds

Chris Paul ($9,300) at Rockets (too risky)

Corey Brewer ($4,300) vs. Clippers

Josh Smith ($6,500) vs. Clippers

Nikola Mirotic ($3,400) at Cavaliers