Kentucky Derby 2015: Examining Race Highlights and Early Preakness Projections

The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby saw a favorite win for the third straight year, stirring up hopes of a Triple Crown bid for American Pharoah.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert with jockey Victor Espinoza in the irons, American Pharoah rode to a one-length victory at Churchill Downs on Saturday to win The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.

This wasn't a mere coronation for American Pharoah, because he really had to fight down the final few furlongs to nose out in front of early front-runner Dortmund and a hard-charging Firing Line.

Dortmund happens to be a stablemate of American Pharoah's and hadn't lost in six prior starts. Only a three-time Derby winner in Gary Stevens was in the irons for Firing Line, so he was no slouch either.

Place	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Lengths
1	18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	-----
2	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	1
3	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3
4	15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	3 1/4
5	5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	6 1/2
6	3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	7 3/4
7	14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	8 3/4
8	6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	9 1/2
9	13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	10 1/4
10	2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	11
11	21	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	12
12	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	12 3/4
13	17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	15 1/2
14	1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	15 1/2
15	20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	15 3/4
16	16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	19 1/4
17	4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	35
18	19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	60 1/2
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova	SCR	7
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	SCR	11
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Michael Maker	SCR	12

An ambitious pace unfolded to start, so the best horses in the field separated themselves rather early. American Pharoah's speed was able to offset his No. 18 post position so far from the rail, but it still required some savvy on Espinoza's part to know when to push him.

It was such a swift trip right out of the starting gates, yet Stevens knew when to hit the gas on Firing Line. His horse just didn't have quite as much firepower as American Pharoah did, which is a testament to the quality of his victory.

The following analysis from NOLA.com's Jeff Duncan was fitting:

Frosted finished well back in fourth and even showed a decent burst down the stretch. He just didn't have the stamina to run with those who finished in the money in the first half of the race; by the time he turned it on, it was too little, too late.

And no one else really stood a chance against the odds-on favorites.

Traffic problems perpetrated by starting too far to the inside proved costly to Carpe Diem and Materiality, the top two perceived contenders from renowned trainer Todd Pletcher. Those horses finished eighth and sixth, respectively.

The Preakness Stakes is next up, and for some of the top contenders from Louisville who had their potential Triple Crown dreams dashed, the incentive to compete at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore may diminish.

Espinoza's comments from Saturday that suggest his horse has more in the tank to give, courtesy of The Courier-Journal, seem to justify Odds Shark's listing American Pharoah as a 5-2 favorite to win the Triple Crown:

Although the field won't be as strong or deep as it was at Churchill Downs, American Pharoah is no lock to take the Preakness. It's a quick, two-week turnaround that even the best horses can't prepare for leading up to the Triple Crown slate.

If anyone can handle the short rest, though, it seems American Pharoah is up for it. The strength of his connections is a big help.

Baffert has his first Kentucky Derby winner since War Emblem in 2002, and that horse went on to win the Preakness. Espinoza rode War Emblem and also California Chrome last year, so he's captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown after both times he's finished first in Louisville.

Presuming he shows up to Pimlico, there's little reason to predict any horse other than American Pharoah as the winner at the moment.