Kentucky Derby 2015: What Replay Shows for American Pharoah's Triple Crown Odds

This year's Kentucky Derby was one for the ages.

A loaded field of three-year-olds took to the Churchill Downs dirt track in front of a record crowd and put on a show that most of us will never forget. 

With a rather modest time of 2:03.02, the Bob Baffert trainee American Pharoah won the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby under the steady hand of back-to-back Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. The Pioneerof the Nile colt was clearly the best horse in this field, logging a one-length victory over would-be challengers Firing Line and Dortmund.

Sure, Pharoah's win was impressive, but to be fair, we tend to hype up solid Derby winners as the next big slump-buster—cut us some slack, we've been waiting 37 years for a Triple Crown winner.

But what are American Pharoah's actual chances of winning the highly sought-after Triple Crown? Well, his win in the Derby can tell us a whole lot about that, and I'm going to break down the video replay in an attempt to tell you what it shows us about the legitimacy of his pursuit for a Triple Crown.

Before we get to that though, take a quick look at the final order of finish to get a feel for how things shook out Saturday. Follow that up with a look at the Derby replay and then regroup with me in the "video breakdown" section to find out how real Pharoah's Triple Crown quest really is.

Order of Finish

Place	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Lengths
1	18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	--
2	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	1
3	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3
4	15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	3 1/4
5	5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	6 1/2
6	3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	7 3/4
7	14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	8 3/4
8	6	Mubtaahij	Cristophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	9 1/2
9	13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	10 1/4
10	2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	11
11	21	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	12
12	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	12 3/4
13	17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	15 1/2
14	1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	15 1/2
15	20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	15 3/4
16	16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	19 1/4
17	4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	35
18	19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	60 1/2
	7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova	SCR
	11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	SCR
	12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Micael Maker	SCR

Race Replay

Video Breakdown

The first thing that pops out to me in this race is the gate speed displayed by American Pharoah. While Dortmund and Firing Line were quicker to the front of the pack, Pharoah proved that he has what it takes to get himself forwardly placed quickly, and with very little effort.

This bodes well for his chances in the next two legs of the Triple Crown.

At Pimlico, he will look to be on the lead or, at the very least, within striking distance early. At Belmont, he'll need to be somewhat forwardly placed, because the likelihood of there being fractions quick enough for him to come from the stars is unlikely.

That shouldn't be an issue, though, after seeing him break cleanly and quickly in the Derby.

After breaking from the gate, Espinoza did a wonderful job of getting his colt as close to the rail as possible. Riding most of the race somewhere between the two and three paths helped conserve a great deal of energy, justifying the virtue of working with a full-length lead over the mid-pack grouping.

Though Espinoza showed the wherewithal to keep his colt reined in, Pharoah didn't fight him for anything more. The Pioneerof the Nile colt seemed content to ride along the backstretch through modest quarter and half-mile fractions of 23.24 and 47.34, respectively.

The tactical speed he displayed to keep himself within shouting distance of the leaders should serve him well if he chooses to sit off the pace in the Preakness. In the Belmont, it'll be that much more important, as he'll need to conserve all the energy he can in order to make a legitimate run at a Triple Crown, should he reach that point.

As they entered the final turn, Pharoah showed impressive kick. Now the winner of five straight, he bumped out to the five path during that turn for home, but it didn't seem to faze him one bit as he was able to draw even with both Dortmund and Firing Line as they reached the top of the stretch.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

By the time they reached the 50-yard mark, Pharoah had claimed a half-length lead, and Espinoza had no more use for the whip as he stretched out for a one-length win.

American Pharoah's ability to jump out in front of 15 other horses jumps off the page in this race, and that's what I'm most pleased with. There were rumblings from some who were concerned about the relative lack of quality competition in his previous races—the best horse he had previously beaten was Far Right—but he proved to be significantly faster than the vast majority of the field both out of the gate and down the stretch.

Peter Morgan/Associated Press

The Preakness isn't a concern, as it's both a weaker field and a faster-playing surface. Look for him to win with relative ease there.

The Belmont Stakes will be the true test —hence its nickname, "The Test of the Champion." That said, I love what we saw here in relation to what we would need to see in the Belmont.

American Pharoah looked like he had more in him. The Baffert trainee didn't see the whip inside of the 50-yard mark but was still pulling away from the second-place finisher, Firing Line.

I see that and immediately think he has more distance in him. His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, won routinely at 1 1/16 miles, and his grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont in 2003.

If there's one horse that scares me and could also make a Triple Crown spoiling appearance in the Belmont, it's Frosted. The Tapit colt won his last race at Belmont Park, logging an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.

After seeing the way he nearly tracked down Dortmund for a third-place finish, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he found his way to the winner's circle in the Belmont Stakes.

Whether all of this proves to be an accurate assessment or not remains to be seen. But, if my analysis here, and his 5-2 odds to win the Triple Crown, via OddsShark.com, are any indication, American Pharoah may be our best shot at seeing this long drought finally come to an end.

Follow me on Twitter! Follow @TylerDuma