American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza: Expert Predictions for 2015 Triple Crown

Yesterday marked the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. The race featured arguably the best crop of three-year-olds in recent memory and garnered a record turnout as fans hoped to see history in the making.

Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah and his rider, Victor Espinoza, took home an impressive victory in a time of 2:03.02, cementing his status as the best three-year-old in North America.

Now, winning the Derby and being the best in North America doesn't necessarily guarantee a win in the Preakness, let alone a full sweep of the Triple Crown races. Even so, based on what we saw Saturday, there is most certainly a possibility of seeing our first Triple Crown winner since 1978 (Affirmed).

How likely is American Pharoah to win the Preakness? How likely is he to win the Triple Crown? That's what I'm here to sort out for you. First, I'll take you through a look at his performance in the Derby, and then I'll explain what it tells us about his chances in the Derby, before breaking down his chances at taking all three legs of the elusive Triple Crown.

First up, AP in the Kentucky Derby.

American Pharoah in the Derby

AP was easily the best horse in this field. We knew that going into the race, and we certainly know it now after his victory.

Though he didn't run away with an eight-length victory like we saw in the Arkansas Derby, his best was more than enough in the Kentucky Derby.

The Pioneerof the Nile colt staked himself out to a nice, forward position, tucking in just outside of Dortmund as they moved through the backstretch.

The move to stay just outside of Dortmund proved to be a solid one on the part of Espinoza, as he and Pharoah saved a good amount of ground compared to most horses in the race. The position also helped to make their presence felt among the early leaders.

Pharoah looked stoic along the backstretch and never seemed to fight his rider, allowing them to rate nicely just off the pace.

All that energy the Baffert trainee saved through tucking in toward the rail, and through that somewhat-slow backstretch run, paid major dividends as he continued to draw even through the turn for home.

With an impressive kick out six wide, Pharoah found a clear path to run through, and he looked primed to peel off a strong stretch run. Once they reached the top of the stretch, it became abundantly clear that Pharoah was going to win this race.

After gaining the lead from Dortmund and Firing Line, all that was left to do was waltz across the finish line. And that he did.

Preakness Stakes Prediction

American Pharoah's win in the Derby showed us quite a bit, and from the looks of things, he seems like a clear-cut favorite to walk away with the Preakness in equally impressive fashion.

The Preakness plays well toward speed, especially for those who can both lead or sit comfortably just behind the pace-setters. To get an idea of what to expect in the Preakness, take a look at last year's running of the race, depicted in the video below:

California Chrome set himself up for a very similar race to the one we saw AP run in the Derby. The Lucky Pulpit colt sat in third just a length off the lead, riding two-wide through the backstretch run. 

Just before the turn for home, Espinoza let the reins out and allowed Chrome to make his move, taking hold of the lead by the middle of the turn for home. Through the stretch run, Chrome opened up to a one-length lead that he never relinquished.

American Pharoah could run a very similar race to the one Chrome ran last year, but AP also has the ability to get out to an early lead and play catch-me-if-you-can better than Leo DiCaprio in that awesome 2002 film.

The distance won't be an issue for American Pharoah, as the 1 3/16 miles is actually a bit of a cutback from the 1 1/4-mile distance in the Derby. What is an issue, though, is the fact that the majority of the field is still up in the air.

Obviously Pharoah will be there, and according to Preakness.com, we'll definitely see Divining Rod and Bodhisattva. After that, your guess is about as good as anybody else's. 

According to Tim Wilkin of the Albany Times Union, he and early Derby scratch Stanford's ownership group felt he was better suited for the Preakness, as opposed to the Derby:

It's a very good possibility that we'll see Stanford run in the Preakness, and according to owner and Bloodstock agent, Michelle MacDonald, the possibility of Dortmund running in the Preakness was present prior to the start of the Derby:

Though he didn't get the win they were looking for, Dortmund could still end up making the trip to Pimlico.

The composition of the rest of the field is certainly an important variable. But, there's a reason AP was set as a -150 favorite, according to Odds Shark. Stick with him in the Preakness. 

Triple Crown Prediction

If you're asking me whether or not I would bet on American Pharoah to win the Triple Crown, the answer is "No." Odds Shark has AP's odds to complete the first Triple Crown since 1978 at 5-2, and to be honest, I don't know if we'll ever see another Triple Crown winner.

Now, I could sit here and go on an Art Sherman-esque rant about how horses not running in all three legs of the Triple Crown ruins everything and how it's a total sham and whatever else that wily old man had to say about the field construction for the final two legs, but where's the fun in that?

American Pharoah could win the Triple Crown, and here's why.

The Preakness is the easiest leg of the Triple Crown. The field is generally significantly weaker than the Derby field, and it's run over a slightly shorter distance, and a slightly more favorable track.

The speed bias and slight cut back in distance play heavily into AP's favor. So long as Espinoza keeps him out of trouble, winning the Preakness shouldn't prove nearly as difficult a task as winning the Derby.

The Belmont, however, is a whole different animal. At 1 1/2 miles long, the Belmont Stakes truly lives up to the nickname of "The Test of the Champion."

AP will face another different crop of contenders at Belmont Park after winning the Preakness, but his pedigree, as well as his performance in the Derby and Derby prep races suggest that he's capable of holding up over the long haul that is the Belmont Stakes.

Sired by Pioneerof the Nile, AP is a distance specialist. If that weren't enough, his grandsire, Empire Maker, was a Belmont Stakes winner back in 2003.

I made the prediction in an earlier recap piece for the Derby that AP would win the Triple Crown, so I'm going to stick with it.

Fans are hankering for a Triple Crown winner:

It's time to see if American Pharoah, Espinoza and Baffert can give them what they want.

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