Kentucky Derby Entries 2015: Race-Day Predictions for Horses, Jockeys in Lineup

The 2015 Kentucky Derby is fast approaching, with hours remaining until every contender steps their hooves into the entry gate and takes off for the 141st Run for the Roses.

Endless months—OK, years—of preparations result in hours of around-the-clock coverage and thousands of dollars in bets placed. But it all comes full circle in the span of just two minutes, as the top favorites only have 1 1/4 miles of Churchill Downs track to prove themselves against the best in the business.

Hopes are high entering the year's first Triple Crown race, as a bevy of contenders hope to win the Derby and threaten to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. The sport's competitiveness across the board has made it a near-impossible task to rattle off all three victories, but one horse will put himself in position to do just that after winning Saturday.

Here's a final look at the full lineup for Saturday's race, as well as win-place-show predictions.

2015 Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	7-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	40-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	28-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	15-4
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	14-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark

Win-Place-Show Predictions

Win: American Pharoah

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Wednesday's draw nearly spelled doom for American Pharoah, and one early scratch threatened to push him into the dreaded No. 17 post that no horse has ever won from. But with more scratches gracing the field before Saturday, Pharoah is once again sitting pretty.

The speedy favorite initially drew the 18th post but has now fallen to No. 16 following the scratches of El Kabeir and International Star. That's a much more favorable position to work from, as Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden noted:

He will technically be lining up from the 16th post, but it's No. 15 for all intents and purposes with the No. 1 post vacant. That puts American Pharoah in quite the position to continue his incredible recent run of victories.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Pharoah has won both of his events in 2015. He comes in fresh and ready for the rigors of the Triple Crown, but first up is taking care of the Kentucky Derby.

His smaller size would have been an issue near the rail, but there won't be any such issues with American Pharoah lining up near the outside. That will allow him to use his wheels early on and avoid getting bunched up, which is so easy to do at Churchill Downs amid 20 horses.

American Pharoah will be among the leaders down the stretch, and that's all it will take for his top-line speed and prestige to shine through.

Place: Dortmund

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Not only does Baffert boast the two biggest favorites in this year's Kentucky Derby field, but each of them also have different styles that could produce victory depending on how the race unfolds.

Unlike American Pharoah, Dortmund is one of the biggest horses in the field—Baffert told The Wall Street Journal's Michael Driscoll that the contender weighs 1,280 pounds, while the thoroughbred average is around 1,000 pounds. 

That size and those long strides will pay dividends for Dortmund starting from the eighth spot, as it will allow him to get an early leg up on the field. The similarities he shares with a couple of recent Kentucky Derby winners caught the attention of Twitcapper:

Dortmund isn't quite as fast as American Pharoah, but he won't be far off if he's able to get off to a strong start out of the gates. Even amid two wins at Santa Anita Park earlier this year, he struggled early before coming on late.

The longer distance can doom some horses who start out hot, but Churchill Downs can cater to those who come on late like Dortmund. If he's able to turn on the afterburners, he could gallop to victory or a second-place finish.

Show: Materiality

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Baffert's duo is getting all of the hype, but don't overlook the two contenders trainer Todd Pletcher is inserting into Saturday's race. Carpe Diem is the third favorite in the field, but the best money is with Materiality.

Jockeyed by Javier Castellano, Materiality has won all three of his races in 2015—the last of which was a Grade 1 Florida Derby victory. The post draw wasn't kind to him and fellow Pletcher pupil Carpe Diem, but things began to improve when a scratch pushed them one post down, as Chris Fallica noted:

Materiality is just one of five horses that come into the race undefeated in 2015, but few can boast the same level of lineage. He's championed by Afleet Alex, who won both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 2002. 

It will be a shock if Materiality knocks off Dortmund or American Pharoah to win the race, but nobody should be surprised if he finds his way into the top three.