2015 NFL Rookie Season Predictions for Every First-Round Pick
The 2015 NFL draft is over. Now let's get to predicting how the rookies will fare in their first seasons.
Specifically, what can we expect from this year's first-round picks? After all, they will be the ones with the most on their collective shoulders and the biggest opportunities to play right away.
Here's a peek at each first-round pick and what sort of statistical impression they might make based on predicted playing time. Of course, offensive linemen don't really rack up stats, so we'll just look at team impact in those cases.
1. Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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There was little drama or fanfare as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took Jameis Winston with the first overall pick.
The former Heisman winner landed in a pretty good situation with big targets Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
The Buccaneers went about trying to get Winston some better protection than they gave Josh McCown and Mike Glennon last year, drafting tackle Donovan Smith and guard Ali Marpet in the ensuing rounds.
We could see Winston put the ball up a good amount as a rookie, especially if the Bucs defense doesn't keep up its end of the bargain. That'll mean some turnovers are in store for the Florida State product, who threw 18 interceptions in his last season in college.
Much like Andrew Luck a few years back, Winston will be entrusted to do more at quarterback than other rookies. He is more NFL-ready than his peers, and the running game isn't likely to be good to boot.
Prediction: 295-of-500, 3,650 yards, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
2. Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
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After all the hullabaloo surrounding the No. 2 pick, there was no trade—the Tennessee Titans took Marcus Mariota and went home.
Well, they participated in the rest of the draft, then they went home.
The reigning Heisman winner was brought in to get the Titans out of quarterback purgatory, and he will get right to work doing so.
Tennessee might try to protect their new investment by running the ball more than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will with Jameis Winston under center. The Titans would do well to bring Mariota around like the Seahawks did with Russell Wilson, who threw just 393 passes as a rookie.
Like Wilson, Mariota is going to do some damage with his legs regardless.
Prediction: 275/450, 3,400 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 70 rush attempts, 400 yards, 2 touchdowns
3. Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Jaguars have finally found their Leo.
Dante Fowler Jr. fits the mold at the position, at least in the opinion of The Florida Times-Union's Ryan O'Halloran. The former Florida star should come in and start right away, barring a disastrous preseason.
Whether or not Fowler will be the pass-rusher some expect is a different story—there were certainly other prospects who seem to be more talented at getting to the quarterback.
Still, Fowler should be a huge improvement for the Jaguars, and he will start to pay off right away.
Prediction: 45 total tackles, 7.0 sacks
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4. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
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The Raiders are building something in the Bay Area.
After a decade of defunct offenses, Oakland has a budding quarterback-receiver tandem in Derek Carr and now Amari Cooper.
Widely viewed as the best receiver in the class, Cooper is the de facto No. 1 receiver in a talent-starved corps in Oakland. That means he'll garner a ton of targets from his second-year quarterback, one who threw 599 passes as a rookie—the second-most in NFL history for first-year quarterbacks.
Whatever Cooper does, it'll likely pale in comparison to Odell Beckham Jr.'s ridiculous rookie campaign a year ago. But it'll still be a darn good season for the Alabama product.
Prediction: 80 receptions, 1,050 yards, 9 touchdowns
5. Brandon Scherff, OL, Washington
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The draft's first real surprise came in the form of offensive lineman Brandon Scherff, whom Washington selected fifth overall.
The pick was widely panned, given Scherff projects better as a guard in the NFL and interior offensive lineman aren't really worth top-five picks.
In the end, Washington got a plug-and-play starter—whether that's at right tackle or along the interior—who should improve pass protection for quarterback Robert Griffin III.
6. Leonard Williams, DL, New York Jets
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That Jets defense is going to be nasty.
New York brass watched Leonard Williams fall right into their collective lap. Regarded by some as the top player in the draft and by many as one of the safest picks, Williams didn't fill an immediate need.
As a rookie, the big defensive end will be thrown into the rotation with former Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson and outstanding defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. That is assuming Wilkerson isn't traded—ESPN's Adam Schefter reported teams were looking to trade for him before the draft, and the Williams selection set off a fresh round of trade rumors.
General manager Mike Maccagnan quashed those rumors by saying the Jets weren't actively shopping Wilkerson, as tweeted by the New York Daily News' Manish Mehta. So it seems New York has one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the league.
Getting shunted into a rotation won't do much for Williams' rookie production, but that won't really matter—the Jets will happily take what they can get from him while Richardson and Wilkerson shoulder most of the load.
Prediction: 25 total tackles, 3.5 sacks
7. Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears
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In what might have been a bit of a luxury pick, the Bears took West Virginia standout Kevin White with the No. 7 pick.
As needs go, it wasn't at the top of the list in Chicago, where Alshon Jeffery now reigns as the top wideout. He was to be flanked by promising third-year receiver Marquess Wilson and veteran slot man Eddie Royal.
White has been inserted into the mix now, and he figures to have the inside track to start opposite Jeffery given his draft status.
Of course, with Jeffery—and presumably tight end Martellus Bennett and running back Matt Forte—hogging targets and head coach John Fox's commitment to the run game, White's rookie production might not meet expectations.
Prediction: 65 receptions, 925 yards, 7 touchdowns
8. Vic Beasley, OLB, Atlanta Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons needed to address the pass rush in a big way, and they did just that with Vic Beasley in the first round.
Viewed as one of the safer picks in the draft, Beasley should come in and start immediately. His production will benefit from all that playing time, and the Clemson product thinks he will hit double digits in sacks, per NFL.com's Chase Goodbread:
"I'm a hard-working guy, a determined guy, a double-digit sack guy and a team leader. I'm a double-digit sack guy, and I think I'm going to be able to do that my first year.
"
That would be a tall task for any rookie edge-rusher—getting to 10-plus sacks isn't terribly common for rookies—but Beasley certainly has the athleticism and talent to get there.
Prediction: 50 total tackles, 8.0 sacks
9. Ereck Flowers, OT, New York Giants
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Ereck Flowers was one of the most polarizing players in the draft.
Many draft experts—like Bleacher Report's own Matt Miller, for example—had him as a second-day prospect. The NFL obviously felt differently, as did some analysts who felt he was a first-round value.
Rumors swirled in the week leading up to the draft that he would be taken in the top 10.
“He will not fail,” one team official said of Flowers, per Peter King's The MMQB's Peter King. “He is all ball. Don’t know if he’ll make many Pro Bowls, but he will play at a good level for years. To me, he’s a sure thing.”
The New York Giants took him at No. 9, presumably plugging a big hole at tackle in the process.
If Flowers plays to his potential, he will be a huge asset at right tackle right away. At the very least, the Giants running game would see an uptick in efficiency given the Miami product's run-blocking ability.
10. Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams
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The question about whether a running back would be selected in the first round was answered with a resounding "yes" when the St. Louis Rams took Todd Gurley at No. 10 overall.
There were top-10 rumblings for the big back out of Georgia, but they seemed ludicrous in the face of recent history. The Rams cared not for positional value, however.
Gurley was certainly the best running back in the class, but health is a serious concern for the Georgia product. A torn ACL ended his final season in college, and it could keep him out for the first part of his rookie year in the NFL.
The Rams might try to bring him along slowly, too, given they have somewhat productive Tre Mason on the roster.
Prediction: 175 carries, 800 yards, 6 touchdowns; 15 receptions, 125 yards
11. Trae Waynes, CB, Minnesota Vikings
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Where there was smoke, there was fire.
A ton of mock drafts pegged cornerback Trae Waynes to the Vikings, and it was all but written in the stars.
Minnesota got an incredible athlete with a ton of upside at No. 11. They also got a handsy cornerback who could have problems covering NFL receivers if he doesn't improve his technique.
The good news is the Vikings won't need to put him on an island like the Michigan State Spartans did in college.
Even better, they will be able to develop him without forcing him onto the field—Xavier Rhodes will continue starting in his second season, and veteran Terence Newman might be the other starter while Waynes gets up to speed.
Prediction: 30 total tackles, 5 passes defensed, 2 interceptions
12. Danny Shelton, NT, Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns lost nose tackle Ahtyba Rubin in free agency—though he wasn't particularly good last season, per Pro Football Focus—leaving a hole in the middle of that defense.
That was probably the biggest impetus in drafting Danny Shelton at No. 12. The big defensive lineman will have all the opportunity in the world to start as a rookie. He will have to fend off Phil Taylor and Ishmaa'ily Kitchen, but that shouldn't be too tough for the former Husky.
Of course, nose tackles don't tend to rack up statistics.
Prediction: 20 total tackles, 1.5 sacks
13. Andrus Peat, OT, Atlanta Falcons
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This was a bit of a curious pick from the New Orleans Saints.
Yes, they could use help on the offensive line, but the Saints are set at tackle—Terron Armstead and Zach Strief have the starting jobs locked down for the foreseeable future—and Andrus Peat doesn't project as a guard.
He could feasibly start for departed Ben Grubbs, but it's more likely Peat will spell Armstead or Strief while he bides his time.
14. DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
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There are no more excuses for Ryan Tannehill.
Miami's franchise quarterback—for better or worse—has himself a proper arsenal, one without a grousing, miscast No. 1 receiver. It was made complete by DeVante Parker, who has been compared to A.J. Green.
Despite his first-round status, Parker isn't necessarily in for a huge rookie season. Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and newly acquired Greg Jennings will see their fair shares of the field. It's possible he will be fourth on the depth chart to start the season.
Or, perhaps, the Green comparisons are spot on and he will become the No. 1 receiver right away.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Prediction: 60 receptions, 900 yards, 8 touchdowns
15. Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
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It wasn't long after a running back cracked the first round—and the top 10—before another one made his appearance on the first day of the draft.
Melvin Gordon was the one back who could challenge Gurley for top draft honors at the position, but the latter's Siren song was too loud to ignore. The one thing Gordon has on Gurley, however, is health heading into his rookie year.
Barring any injuries in the preseason, we should see plenty of the former Badger on the field right out of the gate. Even better, there isn't much serious competition for Gordon—Branden Oliver, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown don't exactly present a ton of upside.
Prediction: 250 carries, 1,100 yards, 7 touchdowns; 20 receptions, 200 yards, 1 touchdown
16. Kevin Johnson, CB, Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans already had a fierce defensive front led by J.J. Watt. That secondary hasn't been quite as strong, though Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson have been a solid duo at cornerback.
Kevin Johnson was brought in to help elevate that unit on defense, but he won't be doing it as a starter in 2015 unless he wrestles the job from Joseph or Jackson, who was re-signed to a four-year, $34 million deal.
Still, a role in nickel packages means Johnson should see the field plenty as he is groomed for a starting job down the line.
Prediction: 35 total tackles, 8 passes defensed, 3 interceptions
17. Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
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With Justin Smith nearly retiring this offseason and Ray McDonald gone to the Chicago Bears, it wasn't much of a surprise that the San Francisco 49ers took Arik Armstead out of Oregon in the first round.
Of course, Smith is still around, and Tank Carradine was just coming into his own last season. That means a rotational role for Armstead is likely in the cards.
That might be a good thing given Armstead was a bit raw coming out of college.
Prediction: 25 total tackles, 2.0 sacks
18. Marcus Peters, CB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Marcus Peters has the talent to start right away in the NFL. He just needs to control his emotions.
The former Washington defender was dismissed from the team after clashing with coaches, per ESPN.com. That incident might have prevented him from becoming the first cornerback taken in the 2015 draft.
He could get a shot to start right away if he can win the job opposite Sean Smith. That spot has been a black hole for the Chiefs, and Peters is certainly talented enough to avoid the event horizon.
Prediction: 45 total tackles, 10 passes defensed, 5 interceptions
19. Cameron Erving, OL, Cleveland Browns
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What position is Cameron Erving going to play for the Cleveland Browns?
Billed as a center or tackle at the next level, Erving was introduced as a guard on the NFL Network broadcast when he was drafted.
His versatility will be nice for that offensive line, but it might be best to keep Erving on the outside and move him to the right, where Mitchell Schwartz has drawn the ire of Browns fans since he became the starter.
Erving certainly won't be a center as long as Alex Mack is in town and healthy.
20. Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
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Losing your lead receiver in two consecutive offseasons could be problematic. Good thing Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly didn't think he could just go without addressing that fact this offseason.
It looked like that might be the case based on how the Eagles approached free agency, but the draft was a different story. Kelly wound up nabbing one of the more intriguing prospects outside the top three wideouts in the draft.
Agholor compares favorably to the departed Jeremy Maclin, who rebounded from a torn ACL to post a big year for the Eagles in 2014. Of course, it took Maclin a little while to become that guy for Philadelphia, and Agholor will have a learning curve like most other rookie receivers.
Still, the opportunity is there for the taking—the only other real competition at the position is Jordan Matthews, who is better suited to play in the slot.
Prediction: 65 receptions, 850 yards, 6 touchdowns
21. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
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Longtime starter Andre Smith all but dared the Bengals to draft his replacement, per Cincinnati.com's Paul Dehner Jr.
Game on in Cincinnati.
Texas A&M product Cedric Ogbuehi was the first-round pick for the Bengals, and he was joined by Oregon offensive lineman Jake Fisher in the second round.
Of course, Whitworth and right tackle Andre Smith will probably retain their starting gigs for the near future. That means Ogbuehi likely won't see the field much as a rookie.
22. Bud Dupree, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Outside linebacker was a huge need for the Pittsburgh Steelers, so naturally, one of the most gifted pass-rushers in the draft fell to the perennial power.
Alvin "Bud" Dupree burst onto the scene like the Kool-Aid Man with an outstanding combine performance, one that caught the eye of many a draft analyst and the Pittsburgh front office. His performance strapped a rocket to his draft stock, and here we sit, analyzing his first-round selection.
He might need a little seasoning out of Kentucky, but Dupree should see the field early and often given the dearth of pass-rushing talent in Pittsburgh these days.
Prediction: 45 total tackles, 8.5 sacks
23. Shane Ray, OLB, Denver Broncos
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Despite his citation for possession of marijuana just days before the draft, Shane Ray didn't fall terribly far.
The Denver Broncos not only took the Missouri defensive end in the first round, they moved up to snag him. That doesn't sound like a team that is going to keep him off the field, assuming his extracurricular activities were a one-time mistake, as he claimed, per The Denver Post's Nicki Jhabvala:
"I think in life, everyone makes mistakes. Unfortunately, I made a terrible decision on Monday, which could have possibly cost me my career. But when that happened, I also realized that this could be taken away from me at any point in time. Just the feelings I had, when I felt like everything was over, I never want to feel that again.
"
Whatever the case may be, Ray will be in on a rotational basis early in his career. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller should start as long as they're healthy.
Prediction: 40 total tackles, 3.5 sacks
24. D.J. Humphries, OT, Arizona Cardinals
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D.J. Humphries has to be better than Bobbie Massie, right?
The Arizona Cardinals selected the Florida product to continue revamping an offensive line that has been problematic for years now. A year after signing Jared Veldheer to lock down the left tackle position, they signed guard Mike Iupati to a massive contract.
Right tackle was still a problem, with Massie having allowed seven sacks and 42 total quarterback pressures last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Of course, being a rookie, Humphries isn't necessarily going to start over Massie, first-round status be damned. A bad preseason would probably keep Humphries on the bench early in the year.
25. Shaq Thompson, LB, Carolina Panthers
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Is he a safety or a linebacker? That question dogged Shaq Thompson all draft season.
He'll be the latter for the Carolina Panthers, who could have one of the strongest linebacking corps in the league if Thompson can parlay his athleticism into solid play right out of the gate.
It was a bit of an irony to see starting outside linebacker Thomas Davis announce his potential replacement, but we shouldn't see Thompson overtake him anytime soon. For starters, the Panthers need both on the field.
Then there is the fact that Davis should be left to man the strong side while Thompson develops into a more complete player.
Prediction: 65 total tackles, 2.5 sacks, 7 passes defensed, 1 interception
26. Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
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Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome doesn't spend early draft picks on offense often. Dark times call for drastic measures, however—Baltimore was hurting on that side of the ball heading into the draft, so Newsome went against his own grain.
Breshad Perriman should step into Torrey Smith's role and fill it nicely, even as a rookie. He lacks the polish Smith gained in his first few years in the league, but Smith wasn't very well rounded as a rookie either.
Perriman likely has just Marlon Brown to beat out for a starting gig opposite Steve Smith. The former might fend him off early in the season as the rookie acclimates, but we should still see plenty of Perriman this year regardless.
Prediction: 50 receptions, 800 yards, 6 touchdowns
27. Byron Jones, CB, Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys got themselves a heck of an athlete at cornerback in the first round. The question is whether he will be ready for prime time as a starter in 2015.
Byron Jones might be able to jump out of Lucas Oil Stadium, but it could be some time before he sees significant playing time. Not only was he raw heading into the NFL, but head coach Jason Garrett said he views the corner as a bit of a developmental player, per Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:
"This is not a workout warrior that we drafted. We drafted a football player who we really think plays the right way and has a chance to develop at a couple different spots for us.
"
Perhaps Jones is in for a job on special teams with an increasing role on defense as the year goes on.
Prediction: 25 total tackles, 5 passes defensed, 1 interception
28. Laken Tomlinson, OG, Detroit Lions
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The Detroit Lions did a nice job moving back in the first round to add picks and land the guy they were probably targeting all along.
Laken Tomlinson was the best pure offensive guard in the draft, though he didn't get much first-round buzz. He should jump in and start right away for a talent-starved offensive line in Detroit. He was a great pass-blocker in college, which should have Matthew Stafford a little happier this week.
29. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts
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There was some unexpected buzz for Phillip Dorsett in the first round, but his time was running out as the first day of the draft neared its closing.
Then the Indianapolis Hurricanes came calling.
The so-called Colts actually drafted the speedster out of Miami, adding yet another Hurricanes product to the roster after signing receiver Andre Johnson and running back Frank Gore this past offseason. It seems head coach Chuck Pagano can't get enough out of his old college club.
One thing Dorsett has that the others on the team don't: speed.
The question is whether the speedster will see the field much as a rookie. Receiver wasn't a big position of need, with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief also aboard, but Indianapolis couldn't resist the allure of Dorsett's afterburners, it seems.
Prediction: 45 receptions, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns
30. Damarious Randall, S, Green Bay Packers
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The Green Bay Packers had themselves a curious draft, and it all began with a seemingly superfluous safety.
Damarious Randall's draft stock rose dramatically in the weeks leading up to the annual event, and he wound up being the first safety taken.
Unfortunately, there might not be much playing time in store for Randall, who has last year's first-round pick Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett—not to mention Micah Hyde—to contend with for playing time.
At least there is special teams.
Prediction: 25 total tackles, 4 passes defensed, 1 interception
31. Stephone Anthony, LB, New Orleans Saints
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In a bit of a surprise, Stephone Anthony was the first inside linebacker off the board.
The New Orleans Saints waited until the 31st pick to snag him, but he could still come in and start right away. The position hasn't exactly been one of strength for New Orleans in recent years, and newly acquired Dannell Ellerbe isn't going to help much.
Anthony will be a big asset for New Orleans from day one.
Prediction: 110 total tackles, 2.0 sacks, 1 interception
32. Malcom Brown, DT, New England Patriots
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"Ya'll about to get the best player ya'll have ever drafted so just be ready for when I touch the field."
Those are the words defensive tackle Malcom Brown had for Patriots fans after New England took him at the end of the first round, per Phil Perry of CSNNE.com.
The Patriots let stalwart defensive tackle Vince Wilfork go this past offseason. So it makes sense that one of the best defensive tackles in the league fell to the Patriots—great franchises stay winning, right?
At any rate, Brown should be in the mix to start right of the gate, alongside last year's first-round gamble Dominique Easley, assuming the latter is fully recovered from a knee injury that ended his rookie year.
Prediction: 25 total tackles, 1.5 sacks
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