Kentucky Derby 2015 Predictions: Final Odds, Betting Lines and Pre-Race Picks
As the 141st Kentucky Derby fast approaches, punters across the world are frantically getting their bets in, putting on their lucky socks and crossing fingers.
That much reflects just how big a lottery the heralded "most exciting two minutes in sport" really is, as favourites can amount to nothing and underdogs can reign supreme.
Here’s a look at the final odds from 2015’s eagerly anticipated race, with a look at a few horses that could be worth throwing a dollar or two on before Saturday evening's 6:24 ET post time.
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| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds | Prediction |
| 1 | NO HORSE | ||||
| 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 | Bottom 4 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 | Top 5 |
| 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 | Top 5 |
| 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 | 11th-15th |
| 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 33-1 | 6th-10th |
| 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 12-1 | 6th-10th |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 15-4 | 1st |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 | 11th-15th |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 | Top 5 |
| 11 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 | 6th-10th |
| 12 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 40-1 | 11th-15th |
| 13 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 | 11th-15th |
| 14 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 | Bottom 4 |
| 15 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 | 11th-20th |
| 16 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 | Top 5 |
| 17 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 25-1 | 6th-10th |
| 18 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 | Bottom 4 |
| 19 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nick Zito | 50-1 | Bottom 4 |
| 20 | NO HORSE |
Danzig Moon, 33-1
Churchill Downs debutant Danzig Moon touched down in Kentucky as a relative unknown with odds of 50-1 on his head.
However, strong performances in training have seen the horse’s odds cut down to just 33-1, with an each-way bet looking very tempting.
ESPN’s Jeannine Edwards was particularly impressed with Danzig Moon, putting him in the same league as overwhelming favourite American Pharoah:
The Canadian-bred colt will start from the No. 6 post on Saturday after El Kabeir pulled out from 7, and while that’s an undesirable inside post, trainer Mark Casse told thestar.com that it’s perfect for Danzig Moon’s tactical approach:
"If we had drawn way outside I don’t know if we could overcome that. We need a great, great trip to win and a lot of things to go our way and the first step was drawing the post we did. We’re inside but we’re not too far inside. What I would hope is we could save some ground and let [jockey Julian Leparoux] get him together. With this post position, we can sit in the back of the pack and come from behind.
"
The likes of Firing Line, Dortmund and American Pharoah will undoubtedly spring out of the traps, but Danzig Moon’s stamina means he can catch them.
His habit of coming on strong in the latter stages of races will be ideal at the Kentucky Derby, as such a frantic start can leave horses fatigued in the final furlongs.
America’s Best Racing’s Joe Kristufek sat down with Bleacher Report and said that long shots have to be horses that have trained well all week—kicking off his list of underdogs with Danzig Moon:
The success that Danzig Moon reaps at the Kentucky Derby will depend on how quickly he gets out of the traps.
Although a quick closer, the colt doesn’t want to give himself too much of a mountain to climb, or he’ll quickly become an also-ran.
Itsaknockout, 33-1
It’s just written in the stars for Itsaknockout to make his name heard at Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
With the fight of the century, Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao, taking place a matter of hours after the Derby winner is crowned, believers in fate will happily put a few dollars on Itsaknockout.
The horse has been promoting the big fight with a special blanket all week, and he’ll be hoping to upset the odds and land a decisive blow at Churchill Downs. Mayweather himself certainly hopes so, too:
But just how realistic are Itsaknockout’s chances?
Well, he’s been training incredibly well, per Edwards, although he still needs lady luck on his side.
Co-owner Chris Mara reflected on as much, saying that Itsaknockout will have to overcome endless talented horses to stand a chance, but he admitted that it’s not beyond the realms of possibility—per Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News:
"Hopefully we just draw a line through that. The biggest problem this year is this is the best Derby field we've had in a long time. So it's just highly competitive. Let's just hope the horse runs back [like it did] 6-8 weeks ago. We're going to be a longshot, but plenty of longshots have won before.
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Mara is absolutely right—plenty of long shots have won the Kentucky Derby before. And the combination of Itsaknockout’s strong form and good post position of 11 could be a formula for success.
And if it is, those who believe in when things are meant to be will be reaping the rewards of generous 33-1 odds.
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