Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Examining Favorites and Underrated Horses

The 2015 Kentucky Derby post positions have been set for Saturday's 141st running, but the biggest favorites and dark-horse contenders in the field made themselves known long before that.

Saying this year's field is loaded with favorites would be an understatement, as a handful of horses enter Churchill Downs with considerable win streaks and insane career records. That doesn't always indicate success in the year's first Triple Crown race, however, as a few other overlooked candidates have the chance to spoil the party.

Let's take a look at the latest information on the field for Saturday, including a closer glance at a few favorites and underdogs.

2015 Kentucky Derby Field and Odds

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Latest Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	17-2
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	33-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	15-4
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	16-1
11	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	25-1
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
15	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	22-1
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
20	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	50-1

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. Stanford (No. 11 post) withdrew from the Derby on April 30, per Claire Novak of Blood-Horse, and will be replaced by Frammento.

Favorites

American Pharoah

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So many favorites in this year's field figured to make for a wide-open race in terms of betting, but American Pharoah had other ideas.

The winner of four of his last five races and both 2015 events, American Pharoah is assuming the best odds and with good reason. He's won in every fashion you'd like—runaway, down-to-the-wire, come-from-behind and so on.

Trainer Bob Baffert has his sights set on a Kentucky Derby victory, but it will have to be a history-making endeavor. No horse has ever won the Derby from the 17th post, which American Pharoah was moved to after Stanford's withdrawal. To make matters worse, Baffert's history at No. 17 isn't great, either, as Chris Fallica noted:

History may not be on American Pharoah's side, but practically everything else is. He avoided starting near the rail, which will allow jockey Victor Espinoza to utilize the horse's speed to get ahead of the pack early on.

Dortmund

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If American Pharoah is the favorite, consider Dortmund favorite No. 1A.

While he doesn't have nearly the same odds, Dortmund is close enough to American Pharoah's favorite status that he's worth putting in the same category. His recent results suggest he might be worthy of being the top horse, having won all six of his career appearances.

The last one came at the Santa Anita Derby, but trainer Baffert doesn't think that track suited Dortmund as well as Churchill Downs, per USA Today's Gary Mihoces: "Dortmund moves so much better of this track that he does Santa Anita. He really didn't like Santa Anita. ... The way he moves over this track, he likes that. It's like a little softer and deeper."

Unlike American Pharoah, Dortmund received a favorable post draw, starting from the No. 8 spot. Not bunched in on the rail or stuck on the outside, Dortmund will get a fair shot out of the gates to use his huge gallop and stride to his advantage.

Underrated Horses

Firing Line

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The dominance of the two favorites in betting circles has made for a plethora of long-shot options, and none of them look more enticing than Firing Line.

If you like Dortmund, you should be a fan of Firing Line's chances as well. He led the Santa Anita Derby for a large majority before Dortmund overtook him by a head, and lost again by just a head to him in February as well.

Those performances show that Firing Line has some of the best speed in the field, which could very well push him to the front of the pack early on. Whether he can stay there will depend on if he's ready for the rigors of a longer race and a stacked group of opponents.

Firing Line didn't win a race in New Mexico this year, but his quality was certainly on display. If he builds off that and sustains his speed throughout the first mile, don't be surprised if he places or even wins.

Mubtaahij

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One of the Kentucky Derby dark-horses is getting his first taste of the United States, and he's hungry for a place in the winner's circle.

Mubtaahij has been dominating the horse-racing circuit in the United Arab Emirates, winning four races since New Year's Eve and finishing second in one other. Trainer Mike de Kock has his horse ready, but a win isn't the only thing he's craving, as ESPN's Jeannine Edwards noted:

The lack of experience in the American circuit could prove to be a huge deterrent for Mubtaahij, or no issue at all. One advantage he boasts is in distance familiarity, as his last two races went 1 3/16 miles, per HorseRacingNation.com. 

If Mubtaahij can start hot out of the gates and sustain the pace that notched him so many lopsided victories in the UAE, the field will be put on notice.