Kentucky Derby 2015 Horses: Odds, Triple Crown Candidates, Projected Payouts
The 2015 Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, and by the end of the Greatest Two Minutes in Sport, one of 20 horses will start being talked about as a potential candidate to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.
Affirmed was the last to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in the same calendar year, a feat that has quickly become one of the hardest in sports. Odds Shark listed the chances of it happening this year as 6-1, but those odds will likely plummet in the coming weeks.
Let's have a look at the field for the upcoming Kentucky Derby:
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| 1 | ||||
| 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 17-2 |
| 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 |
| 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 |
| 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 33-1 |
| 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 12-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 15-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 16-1 |
| 11 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 25-1 |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 40-1 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 22-1 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 |
| 20 | Frammento | Joe Bravo | Nick Zito | 50-1 |
Projected Payout
| $2 million | $1.24 million | $400,000 | $200,000 | $100,000 | $60,000 |
Triple Crown Candidates
Winning the Triple Crown has become an almost impossible feat in recent years, with the varying distances between the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes often cited as the main reason.
California Chrome came close last year, losing the Belmont Stakes to Tonalist after suffering an injury during the start, per Time's Sean Gregory.
FiveThirtyEight's Benjamin Morris explains why so many horses have managed to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, only to fall short of ultimate glory:
"The main thing that separates the Belmont from the other two races is its length: At 1.5 miles (or 2.4 kilometers, or 12 furlongs), it’s over a quarter-mile longer than either the Derby or the Preakness. This distance has become increasingly rare in American horse-racing over time, to the point where almost all horses entering the Belmont these days have never raced it. Even highly experienced trainers may not have much experience with it. One trainer has come across Belmont’s extra distance only one in every 1,000 races.
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So, are there any potential Triple Crown winners in 2015? The field starting at Churchill Downs is incredibly deep, and that's not a great sign. But there are still two horses worth highlighting.
American Pharoah
Arguably the one horse from this year's field that could match California Chrome for pure speed, American Pharoah will be ridden by Victor Espinoza, the same jockey who nearly rode last year's winner into the record books at Belmont.
As reported by journalist Daniel Ross, the experienced jockey told the Guardian he believes the colt has what it takes to win this year's Kentucky Derby:
Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah enters the race as the odds-on favourite thanks to impressive showings leading up to Saturday. He dominated the Arkansas Derby and has looked in fine form all week, and punters have taken note.
Two factors stand in the way of American Pharoah's success. The first is obvious, and the same thing that plagued California Chrome last year. Should American Pharoah win the Kentucky Derby, he'll face a heavy schedule to get ready and race in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
By the time he gets to the final leg of the Triple Crown, he'll be taking on far fresher horses over a distance that's a lot greater than he faced at Churchill Downs or in the Preakness.
And that's if he wins the Kentucky Derby to begin with. Not only is this field particularly strong, but he'll have to make history to overcome the fact he's starting from Post 17, via WAVE TV's Kent Taylor:
Yes, American Pharoah could win the Triple Crown, but as of right now, the odds are certainly against him.
Mubtaahij
There are a lot of other strong contenders in this field, with Dortmund and Firing Line deserving special mention, but out of all the horses, Mubtaahij may just have the best chance of winning the Triple Crown.
As explained by Joe Kristufek of America's Best Racing, his incredible stamina is the main reason:
An Irish-bred colt mainly racing in Dubai, Mubtaahij has already raced―and won―at far greater distances than most American horses are used to. He's experienced and has a history of success, albeit against inferior competition.
Mubtaahij shouldn't be a favourite to win this year's Kentucky Derby, but if he manages to pull off the incredible feat, his stamina would make him an unlikely candidate to win the Triple Crown. If he can recover from traveling to the United States in time, he could be a major dark horse.
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