Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Triple Crown Odds and Predictions for Field

When 20 horses line up in the gates for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, connections will be dreaming of the Triple Crown. Around two minutes later, only one horse will still be in a position to fulfil that dream.

With no horse since Affirmed in 1978 having won the Triple Crown, it’s no easy achievement, especially when horses can run in the final race, the Belmont Stakes, without having competed in the previous two. As there are only five weeks between the first and last legs of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes certainly benefits fresh horses.

But winning the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs has to be done before anyone gets ahead of themselves with thoughts of the Triple Crown, and there are several horses with live claims, as you will see in the video below:

Here, though, we take a look beyond the Derby favourites to pick out one or two tips currently flying under the radar, as well as providing the post positions, odds and predicted finishes of all the Derby contenders:

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Odds accurate as of 2 p.m. (BST) on May 1.

Firing Line

The Simon Callaghan-trained three-year-old has twice been beaten by a head by Dortmund, but Firing Line could be had for four times the price of Bob Baffert’s horse. In both races, Firing Line and Dortmund were involved in a battle before the latter prevailed. It has certainly encouraged Callaghan to believe Firing Line has a chance in the Kentucky Derby, per Marcus Armytage of the The Daily Telegraph:

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It looks a strong Kentucky Derby and if they make Dortmund second favourite then we should not be far away. Firing Line is a legitimate horse and what has really pleased me is how well he has been training on the surface since he was shipped into Churchill Downs. My guys who brought him have been very happy with him and as all dirt surfaces are slightly different that is always a plus.

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Firing Line was a 14-length winner of the Sunland Derby last time out and also has the assistance of Gary Stevens in the saddle. Stevens has won the Kentucky Derby three times, with the last of his wins coming aboard Baffert’s Silver Charm in 1997. Silver Charm also went on to win the Preakness Stakes before finishing second in the Belmont in his bid for the Triple Crown.

Upstart

While by no means a complete outsider, Upstart’s chances have been a little overlooked since he finished second to Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten runner Materiality in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Upstart, though, was well clear of the rest of the field, and Andrew Beyer in The Washington Post stated his belief that the horse has been consistent throughout his career to date:

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Although Upstart has won just three of his seven starts, he has run well in every one of them. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he had a tough trip (wide, contesting a hot pace) before finishing a commendable third. Twice in Grade 1 Stakes he has finished a close second behind a winner who delivered a monster performance.

"

Upstart has claims of reversing form with Materiality, and his post position of 18 gives his jockey Jose Ortiz options. Only one horse may have won the Kentucky Derby from post 18, per Fox Sports, but Upstart is capable of bucking that trend.

Far Right

No match for American Pharoah on his last start, the Arkansas Derby, Far Right has the potential to run much better than his odds imply. He was eight lengths adrift of American Pharoah at Oaklawn Park but stayed on well up the straight to claim second place.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

He has been a consistent horse for Ron Moquett, only finishing out of the first three once in nine starts, and if the leaders go off too fast, he is capable of picking them off up the home straight. He will also appreciate a step up in distance.

Itsaknockout

The least fancied of Pletcher’s three runners in the Kentucky Derby, Itsaknockout does have the best post position in Gate 12. With stablemates Carpe Diem and Materiality drawn two and three respectively, there will be plenty of early scrimmaging for the lead, and Itsaknockout can avoid the trouble.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Itsaknockout does have 21 lengths to make up on Materiality on their Florida Derby running, and he was awarded the Fountain Of Youth Stakes on his penultimate start after finishing behind Upstart. However, subsequent Grade 1 winner Frosted was back in fourth, and that horse is half the price of Itsaknockout.

When it comes to the Triple Crown itself, though, few horses are being priced up, as you can see in the table below:

Horse	Trainer	Odds
American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	10/1
Dortmund	Bob Baffert	20/1
Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher	33/1
Mubtaahij	Mike de Kock	50/1
Materiality	Todd Pletcher	66/1

Baffert’s three previous winners of the Kentucky Derby—Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem—have all gone on to win the Preakness Stakes before failing to complete the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes.

American Pharoah and Dortmund should be evenly matched for Baffert and would be serious Triple Crown contenders if they can overcome this first hurdle.

Carpe Diem has to prove he will be quick enough, and Materiality lacks experience despite winning in a fast time in the Florida Derby. Mubtaahij, meanwhile, was impressive out in Dubai and is bidding to become the first South African-trained winner of the Kentucky Derby.