Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Race-Day Outlook for Entire Lineup

The final post positions for this year's Kentucky Derby were confirmed on Wednesday evening, and the excitement levels for the first leg of the 2015 Triple Crown are nearing critical status.

Many will debate just how important it is to come upon a lucky draw in the post positions, with different horses reacting to different placements, but the fact remains that certain gates have never produced a Derby winner.

Regardless of what impact the starting positions have on Saturday's Derby, we provide a look at the final lineup and analyse how each horse might fare.

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Stanford was originally positioned at No. 11, but was scratched on Friday and replaced by Frammento, who comes in at No. 20. All horses positioned after No. 11 move up one in the order as a result.

All odds come courtesy of OddsShark.com and are correct as of 9 a.m. ET on May 1. Only 18 remain in Saturday's field after the official Kentucky Derby Twitter account confirmed El Kabeir and International Star had been scratched from the field, with Gates No. 1 and 20 left open as a result, according to Gene Kershner of The Buffalo News:

Race-Day Outlook

Ocho Ocho Ocho didn't appear to have the greatest chances of Derby success prior to Wednesday's post positions being announced, but El Kabeir's withdrawal gives him slightly more breathing room, moving to Gate No. 2.

Still, unless Elvis Trujillo can bolt out of the gates early, Ocho Ocho Ocho stands a shot of being damned to ride behind the pack via the inside rail. Trainer Jim Cassidy remains upbeat, per Derby News:

Carpe Diem and Materiality at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, can harbour stronger hopes of victory, but that placement at the near side of the turn again promises to be the undoing of both.

It just so happens both Carpe Diem and Materiality are each trained by Todd Pletcher, representing something of a double blow.

That being said, Carpe Diem in particular was being seen as one of the top outsiders building up to Saturday's race and may still provide some value at 17-2.

Fighting out of New York, long-shot Tencendur has the joint-slimmest hopes of any at No. 5 with odds of 50-1. However, the probabilities may not speak for everything after Jeannine Edwards of ESPN spoke highly of Danzig Moon, placed at 40-1 and just one position further infield at No. 6:

Danzig Moon has neither the most decorated trainer nor jockey in Mark Casse and Julien Leparoux, respectively, but it's around No. 6 that position could actually come to be a benefitting factor should he discover an early gallop.

At No. 7, we have a first start in the United States for Mubtaahij, who could prove to either sink or swim in his American debut, but a record of four wins and one second-place finish in his last five looks hugely encouraging.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

He'll now be riding alongside one of the standout favourites for victory on Saturday with Dortmund to his right, due to El Kabeir's scratch on Friday.

There's a great deal of anticipation on Bob Baffert's 7-2 shot to carry on a triumphant stretch of form, illustrated by Bleacher Report UK, and live up to the legacy of his father, Big Brown, who won the 2008 Kentucky Derby:

In terms of horse quality and post position, Dortmund may have the most enticing combination of both, bringing real pedigree into the Run for the Roses and a potentially appealing middle-of-the-line position.

Likely to be intimidated standing alongside Dortmund's imposing frame comes Bolo at No. 9, sandwiched between a hot favourite to his left and an intriguing underdog runner to his right, No. 10 Firing Line.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Nestling among the leaders' pack could prove to help Firing Line, who has never placed outside the top two and is jockeyed by Gary Stevens, winner of nine Triple Crown races.

No. 11 and No. 12, respectively, Itsaknockout and Keen Ice will be happier with a draw out wide rather than tighter to the rail, giving their bids for victory a much-needed jolt of fortune after each placing fourth in their most recent races.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Something similar might be expected of Frosted, except Joel Rosario will feel he has a more genuine chance of clinching a lead earlier on, rather than riding as second fiddle.

As 50-1 outsiders, War Story and Mr. Z look unlikely to ruffle many feathers in Saturday's Run for the Roses, but again, their wide positions at No. 14 and No. 15 give them a lifeline heading into the left turn.

In some ways, race favourite American Pharoah could have been happy with being moved down to No. 16 following Stanford's exit, but as ESPN's Lane Gold tells, no horse has won from this position in 36 attempts:

Having been pegged as the race's hottest ticket for weeks and something of a superhorse, it's an unfortunate stroke of luck at this late hour, but only as far as one buys into superstition.

The three remaining horses—Upstart, Far Right and Frammento—were unlucky enough to be drawn at No. 17, No. 18 and No. 19, respectively, and would stand little chance of beating American Pharoah in the early phases.

Even if by some miracle any of those three do make it to the inside rail before the behemoth-like, Bob Baffert-trained beast inside them, it's likely to use up a reserve of energy even the most talented horse would struggle to maintain.

All race records and pedigree information provided courtesy of the official Kentucky Derby website.