Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders

The journey to a Triple Crown begins Saturday at Churchill Downs. The 2015 Kentucky Derby serves a coronation for the winner, as well as a stepping stone to a potentially historic journey through the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. 

In such a fast-paced world, it's almost unfair to the group that wins a Kentucky Derby because that's when all the questions about what will happen next arise. It won't take long before someone mentions Affirmed in 1978, as everyone who watches the sport so desperately wants to see history. 

This year's Kentucky Derby field looks as good as any in recent memory, which only complicates the Triple Crown questions but makes for a compelling stretch of horse racing.

Here's how the odds look for this year's Run For the Roses, as well as predictions for Saturday's big race. 

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Predictions

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If you could bet on trainers to win the Kentucky Derby, Bob Baffert would be getting odds comparable to the New York Jets against the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. For his sake, hopefully there's a better outcome than that game had. 

Baffert trains American Pharoah and Dortmund, the top two favorites, among contenders in this year's field at Churchill Downs. It would be reasonable to expect the 62-year-old to win his first Kentucky Derby since 2002. 

Individual odds for the horses show that American Pharoah is the top draw generating most of the money. It makes sense because he's won four consecutive races, including the Arkansas Derby on April 11 in his final run before the Kentucky Derby. 

California Chrome spoiled everyone last year, by going from the Kentucky Derby favorite to finishing within one win at the Belmont Stakes of completing a Triple Crown. American Pharoah and Dortmund seem to have the goods to do something similar this year, but there's a caveat to mention if you believe in history. 

According to Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post, American Pharoah and Dortmund are descendants of legendary sire Storm Cat:

"

Since 1988, Storm Cat’s progeny are 0 for 44 in the Derby. Last year, eight runners had him in their pedigree — three of them finished in the last four spots. In 2013, six horses were descendants of Storm Cat, and four were among the last-place finishers. In 2012, eight Storm Cat runners ran and five finished in the bottom half of the field.

"

However, if you like to look at more direct bloodlines, Dortmund would seem to have odds in his favor as the son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion Big Brown. American Pharoah's father Pioneerof the Nile doesn't have quite that resume, but still excellent lineage after finishing second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. 

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Looking at pre-Derby results for the horses in this year's field, Materiality has the win that has been the best indicator for success, per Brad Beitz of ThoroughbredRacing.com:

"Since the establishment of the American Graded Stakes system in 1973, the Florida Derby has been the single most influential Triple Crown prep, producing 30 Classic winners in the last 42 years, including 13 Kentucky Derby winners," Beitz wrote. 

Materiality won the Florida Derby on March 28 by 1½ lengths, but he got a late start to his racing career having not competed in events until January 2015. According to Andrew Beyer of The Washington Post, no horse since 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old. 

Carpe Diem is the No. 3 betting favorite, though starting so far on the inside at post two doesn't do him any favors. 

One person who didn't mind Carpe Diem's post position is Scott Hazelton of Horse Racing TV (via WDRB.com), saying the horse's win at the Blue Grass Stakes was an eye-opening experience:

"

(American Pharoah and Dortmund) are both very capable of winning this race, but Carpe Diem is a horse that has very few questions in being able to get the distance. He's got the right trainer. ... I had a chance to see him run in person in Lexington at the Blue Grass Stakes, and he really did make a big impression on me. I really think he's the horse to beat.

"

The draw is difficult to get past for Carpe Diem, though he can get out of the box quickly to avoid being boxed into the rail and move comfortably ahead of the pack. 

Yet looking at everything objectively, with all of the various and random caveats in place, Dortmund looks like the horse to beat. He's got a perfect record of 6-0 in six career races, comes from a pedigree that's as good as any young horse possibly could and is trained by one of the best in the business. 

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

There are also deeper connections to the track at Churchill Downs for Dortmund than a typical horse at this stage, as noted by Jeremy Balan of ESPN after the Santa Anita Derby:

"Dortmund also has a win over Churchill Downs' dirt track [in an allowance/optional claiming event Nov. 29] and has a direct connection to the Kentucky Derby in his bloodlines," Balan wrote. "The last undefeated colt to win the Run for the Roses was Dortmund's sire, Big Brown."

That kind of resume is good enough to expect Dortmund to walk off the track at Churchill Downs draped in roses. It's not going to be an easy win because of a deep field, led by American Pharoah, but there's too much working in Dortmund's favor not to be victorious.