Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: 10 Betting Tips from Handicapping Expert
The Kentucky Derby is the most challenging race of the year to handicap. Put together 21 relatively lightly raced three-year-olds in front of over 100,000 screaming fans wearing funny hats and drinking mint juleps, and just about anything can happen.
We have seen crazy results in recent years, with Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009 both returning over $100 for a $2 win wager. Last year, we saw the betting favorite, California Chrome, get the job done, paying just $7.
This year American Pharoah has been the early Kentucky Derby favorite for months at Odds Shark, ranging in price from 8-to-1 back in March to his current price of 13-to-5 in early Derby betting. His official morning line price is 5-to-2.
Will it be a bomb or chalk? Here are a few betting tips to keep in mind if you are partaking in a little pari-mutuel wagering on Derby Day.
Know Your Betting Menu
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The wagering options on the Kentucky Derby continue to grow over the years, and there are many ways to pad the wagering bankroll.
Some horse players spend a ton of time handicapping the races and don't put enough effort into wagering strategy. Plan in advance how you are going to attack the race with your bankroll.
Smaller bankrolls or bettors who are more conservative may want to stick to the win, place and show pools. The payoffs are smaller, but so are the risks.
If you have a larger bankroll and want a bigger score, there is exacta, trifecta, superfecta and Hi-5 wagers.
With such a large field, the payoffs in exotic wagers can be huge. Despite the favorites' winning the past two years, the $2 exactas still returned $340 and $982.
The $2 superfecta has ranged from $3,270 to as high as $864,254 over the past 15 years. A life-changing score in two minutes is not out of the question.
Look for a Long Shot to Land in Money
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It is rare indeed for the top two or three betting choices to run in the money, so expect to see a long shot land in the second or third spot.
In the past two years, Commanding Curve and Golden Soul rallied from off the pace to complete the exactas at betting odds of 50-to-1 and 50-to-1, respectively. In addition, they both exited the same prep, the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.
It would not be a surprise to see a late-running long shot do the same this year. The smallest exacta we have seen in the past 15 years was in 2004. Smarty Jones was the favorite at 4-to-1 and second choice Lion Heart (5-1) combined for a $65 payoff.
Experience as Juveniles Matters
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You may hear the name Apollo a lot over the next few days. The colt was the last Kentucky Derby winner who did not race as a juvenile, way back in 1882.
In order to win the Kentucky Derby, a grueling 1 1/4 mile race, a solid foundation as a juvenile is needed. It is one of the few Derby handicapping “rules” that has stood the test of time.
However, the rule will get a test this year. The talented Materiality won the Florida Derby (G1) in his last start in fast time, earning the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field. The colt is 16-to-1 in early Derby wagering at OddsShark.
The Todd Pletcher trainee did not make his debut until Jan. 11 of this year and has just three starts under his belt.
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Look to Experienced Trainers, Jockeys
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Yes, few had heard of trainer Chip Woolley until he drove Mine That Bird cross country in his truck to pull off the huge upset in 2009. Casual fans would have never heard of jockey Stewart Elliott without Smarty Jones. But experience does matter.
Most of the recent Kentucky Derby-winning trainers and jockeys are at the top of their profession. Last year’s winning trainer, Art Sherman, was not well known outside of California but spent two decades as a jockey before taking out his trainer’s license and is one of the most respected trainers in Southern California.
It does not hurt to have an experienced jockey in the irons. Calvin Borel has won the Derby three times, and recent Derby-winning jockeys Victor Espinoza, Joel Rosario and John Velazquez each have very live mounts this year.
Pletcher’s Derby Struggles May Continue
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Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer seven times, but that success has not translated into wins on the first Saturday of May.
He lost with his first two dozen Derby starters before finally getting a win with Super Saver in 2010. He has not won since and comes into this year’s race sporting a 1-of-40 record.
He has three shots this year, with Carpe Diem, Materiality and Itsaknockout.
He could finds things tough again this year. Carpe Diem is the third choice in early betting at Odds Shark but has not earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. Materiality is up against the Apollo curse having not raced as a juvenile and Itsaknockout lost by 21 lengths in the Florida Derby.
Stalkers and Closers Rule
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With a 21-horse field, we usually see a fast early pace in the Kentucky Derby. That does not bode well for horses on the front, who usually tire in the stretch. We have to go back to War Emblem in 2002 to find the last Derby winner to take the field gate to wire.
When the pace is very fast, horses coming from far out of it have fared well, including Orb in 2013, who was 18 lengths back after a half-mile.
When the pace is moderate, horses tracking or stalking fare well. California Chrome is a good example. Victor Espinoza had the colt just two lengths back after a half-mile and just 1 1/2 lengths back after six furlongs.
Find a Contender with a Winning Profile
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Take a look back at previous Kentucky Derby winners, and it is easy to see a pattern or a winning profile.
First, a solid foundation as a juvenile is needed, and two or three starts with a good effort in a graded stakes are race preferred.
As three-year-olds, it used to be most of the Derby winners started three or four times, but the recent trend is bringing in runners more lightly raced. Orb and California Chrome each had three preps as three-year-olds, but the previous six winners had just two starts.
A sharp final race is very important. The last four Derby winners came in off victories, and the last to run out of the money was Mine that Bird in 2009.
If a horse ran poorly in their final prep, they have little or no chance to be draped in roses on the first Saturday of May.
Betting Favorite Is Vulnerable
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While the betting favorite won the last two editions of the Kentucky Derby, if we go back three decades there were only four more.
Just six Derby favorites winning means there have been some prices, and the average win payoff the past 29 years is $28.
With a 21-horse field, getting a good trip is essential; these horses have never travelled 1 1/4 miles and many are lightly raced.
That adds up to unpredictability, and we have seen winners pay $32 or more in five of the last 14 runnings of the race topped by a couple of $100-plus winners.
The average odds of the runner-up going back 29 years is 15-to-1, so going against the grain is usually the way to go when betting on the race.
Be Smart with the Wagering Bankroll
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Between Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday and Kentucky Derby Day on Saturday, Churchill Downs will offer up 25 races, 13 that are stakes and a seemingly endless way to wager.
In addition to straight win, place and show wagers there are exactas, trifectas, superfectas, Pick 3 and Pick 4s, a Pick 6 and rolling daily doubles.
There are enough options to make even the seasoned horse player’s head spin. It is important to plan how you are going to wager, and just don’t wager it all on the Kentucky Derby.
There will be great wagering opportunities throughout the two days, and it is important to decide well ahead of time a strategy on what type of bets to make.
A good betting plan is the best way to keep your bankroll in the black.
When on Track or Home Stay Hydrated
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First post on Saturday is 10:30 a.m. ET with the final race set to go off at 8:05 p.m. ET. That is a long day of betting.
Whether you are on track or wagering from home, it is important to keep hydrated throughout the two days.
My suggestion is keep a few cocktails handy. The official drink of the Kentucky Derby is the Old Forester Mint Julep.
As a public service, here is the official recipe:
- 2 Cups sugar
- 2 Cups water
- Sprigs of fresh mint
- Crushed ice
- Old Forester Kentucky Bourbon
- Silver Julep Cups
Enjoy the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby and remember the corny old saying, “Bet with your head, not over it.”
Kentucky Derby betting odds provided by Odds Shark
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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