Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Latest Vegas Lines, Payout Info and Predictions

Days before 20 horses step onto the dirt at Churchill Downs for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, there's an air of optimism for all the competitors. History will be made on Saturday, though no one can say with any certainty at this moment who will make it. 

Fortunately, there are odds to help put things in perspective for this year's field. This is one of those odd years with a lot of strong contenders who would be favorites most of the time but have to settle for the underdog label due to the presence of a tremendous trio at the top. 

Here's how the field looks after the post positions, odds and latest breaking news complete with a prediction for the 141st Run For the Roses. 

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	17-2
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	50-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillion	Mike de Kock	12-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	33-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	7-2
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	14-1
11	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	22-1
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
15	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	22-1
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	33-1
20	Frammento*	Joe Bravo	Nick Zito	N/A

*Note: Per Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form, Stanford (No. 11 post) was scratched with Frammento taking his spot. Horses will move up one gate with Frammento starting from Gate 20. 

Payout

Total Purse	Winner's Purse	Runner-Up Purse	Third-Place Purse	Fourth-Place Purse	Fifth-Place Purse
$2 million	$1.24 million	$400,000	$200,000	$100,000	$60,000

Note: In the event of a dead heat, shares will be equally divided and split among the horses. For example, if two horses finish tied for second, the total payout of $400,000 will be split in half with each participant receiving $200,000. 

Prediction

Elsa/Getty Images

American Pharoah enters the Kentucky Derby as the odds-on-favorite to win on Saturday. He didn't get a great draw, starting outside at post 18 when positions were announced, but did catch a break when Stanford pulled out of the race to move up one gate and get closer inside. 

The hype around American Pharoah isn't just hyperbole. Other trainers at Churchill Downs are raving about him. D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Mr. Z, had this to say about the morning-line favorite, via Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports:

"

I have not been that impressed with a horse in a long time. We came up to him, and when [jockey] Victor Espinoza just nudged him, he opened up four or five lengths on us. … That just breaks horses' hearts. That impressed the hell out of me. In terms of conformation, just standing there, he doesn't blow you away. But when he moves, goes full flight, he's got an amazing stride.

"

American Pharoah didn't come out of the gate as a superstar, finishing fifth in his first race last August, but found his stride quickly with four consecutive wins with the highlight being an eight-length romp at the Arkansas Derby. 

Even the far outside post isn't scaring anyone off the Bob Baffert-trained horse. Baffert took the high road when American Pharoah's initial draw came in, via Gary Mihoces of USA Today:

"As long as there's been a winner (from that gate)," Baffert said. "I didn't want to carry that with me. But it takes a good horse to win it. I mean the break is going to be so important.''

The move into the 17th gate does change Baffert's historical perspective. According to the Kentucky Derby website, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from that post, and the last top-five finisher was Don’t Get Mad (fourth in 2005). 

Yet even with that historical perspective looking grim, American Pharoah seems to be such a physical marvel that he could start anywhere and be the favorite. 

Rob Carr/Getty Images

As tempting as it is to go with the No. 1 contender, American Pharoah is not my pick. I'm not straying too far down the list for a prediction, as Dortmund (3-1) looks really good right now. He's got a perfect career record of 6-0, winning the Santa Anita Derby by 4.25 lengths in his final tuneup. 

If you are looking for an impressive physical specimen on the track, Dortmund is the horse. His enormous size actually led to stable owners shying away from him as a colt, but the son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion Big Brown is having the last laugh. 

The win at Santa Anita seems like a major turning point for Dortmund's career as explained by Jeremy Balan of Blood-Horse:

"

Drawing the inside post for the first time in his career, the undefeated Bob Baffert trainee recovered quickly from a bobbled start, led by a neck during his first trip through the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile race, and never allowed a rival by in a 4 1/4-length gate-to-wire victory in front of a crowd of 38,647 at Santa Anita Park.

"

Being thrown out of his usual comfort zone at a prestigious pre-Derby race, stumbling out of the block and still winning with ease speaks a lot about Dortmund's natural ability.

It also speaks well to the ability of jockey Martin Garcia, who has ridden the three-year-old in all six of his races, to understand how to settle the horse down in a potentially disastrous moment and unleash the wild beast. 

Combine that with Dortmund's massive size—Bill Dwyre of The Los Angeles Times noted Dortmund is near "the 17-hands category," which means he's about 68 inches tall—that allows him to take longer strides than a typical race horse, and he looks more attractive. 

There's not going to be a dominant winner in this year's Kentucky Derby because the field is so good. Carpe Diem, the No. 3 favorite, has almost become an afterthought simply due to a bad inside draw, yet he's one great burst out of the gate from putting those doubters to rest. 

Looking at things as they stand right now, Dortmund looks like the best and safest bet at the Kentucky Derby.