Kentucky Derby Field 2015: Entries List, Betting Lines and Picks
The 2015 Kentucky Derby Field has been shaken up by the scratching of Stanford, who will be replaced by Frammento, per the event's official Twitter account. As a result, the betting lines for the 141st Derby will be undergoing a number of changes between now and the start of the race:
Favourite American Pharoah was originally drawn to start from Post 18 and will now move further inside. As shared by journalist Pat Cummings, no horse has ever started from Post 17 and managed to win the Derby:
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Bob Baffert's prized colt remains the favourite for now, via Odds Shark, but punters should be wary of the historical trend. And with potential question marks now surrounding American Pharoah, it opens the door for other contenders to potentially emerge as favourites. Here are the latest odds, as of Thursday, April 30 (all odds are courtesy of Odds Shark):
| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 17-2 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 14-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 50-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 12-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 33-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 7-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 14-1 |
| 11 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 22-1 |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 22-1 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 33-1 |
| 20 | Frammento | Joe Bravo | Nick Zito | Not available |
Can American Pharoah Make History At Churchill Downs?
Everything seemed so perfect. In a strong field of contenders, American Pharoah (13-5) stood as the favourite thanks to his incredible burst of speed and stamina, which was on full display at the Arkansas Derby:
With last year's winner, Victor Espinoza, riding American Pharoah on Saturday, there was a sense of inevitability surrounding the colt. Sure, the post draw wasn't ideal, but Post 18 wasn't an absolute disaster, either.
And then Stanford dropped out, and Frammento came in. The latter will move into Post 20, and the rest of the field slides one post inside until Stanford's spot, at Post 11, has been filled.
Punters believing in the horse will still go with American Pharoah, as they should. But those on the fence may start to doubt their choice, and given the dearth of talent in this year's race, those doubts are only normal.
Baffert's other colt, the giant Dortmund (7-2), is still unbeaten and displays just as much raw speed as his stable mate. America's Best Racing's Joe Kristufek certainly counts the horse among his favourites:
He's also a big fan of Irish-bred Mubtaahij (12-1), who is one of the more experienced horses, particularly on longer distances, and enters the race having dominated in Dubai up until this point. International horses have had a bad record at Churchill Downs in recent years, but Mubtaahij could certainly be a trend-breaker.
Journalist J.J. Hysell noted he's been making an excellent impression of late:
Legendary trainer Mike de Kock knows his colt may not be a match for the top favourites as far as raw speed goes, but believes in Mubtaahij's incredible stamina, via the Associated Press' Gary B. Graves:
"I think the cream gets settled in the early part of the race most of the time. If he can deal with that first 400 to 600 meters of frenzy, he'll be all right.
[...]
From afar, the thought of actually having a runner wasn't really a thought because I didn't think it could happen. Not in your wildest dreams did you think that you would buy a European horse good enough to come across and compete here. ... Having one of the 20 good enough to run is a satisfying feeling.
"
And then there's Firing Line (14-1), whose battle with Dortmund at the Robert B. Lewis stakes should have fans salivating in anticipation of Saturday's race:
As of right now, American Pharoah is still the favourite, but there's plenty of quality competition for that role.
Picks
Punters who aren't superstitious should just stick with American Pharoah. Streaks were made to be broken, and the colt has shown the talent and potential to do just that. The fact he's now moved to Post 17 may see his odds drop somewhat, which could be good news for punters looking to play it safe.
Dortmund provides a nice alternative, as he's still undefeated for a reason. Firing Line, Carpe Diem and even Frosted are worth a look as well. But Mubtaahij's combination of pedigree, physical skills and long odds due to his status as an international contender makes him the top pick for those looking to win big.
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