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LOUISVILLE, KY - APRIL 29:  American Pharoah runs on the track during the morning training for the kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 29, 2015 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KY - APRIL 29: American Pharoah runs on the track during the morning training for the kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 29, 2015 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Race Lines and Post Positions for Churchill Downs

Sean ODonnellApr 30, 2015

The 2015 Kentucky Derby's contenders received their post positions Wednesday evening, and Vegas oddsmakers quickly adjusted the race's betting lines as a result.

Due to the large field participating in the Derby, starting positions are extremely important. While starting in the far inside (No. 1) gate may seem like an advantage, it isn't. Horses that don't get an extremely fast jump out of the gate have a huge chance of getting pinned against the rail and losing momentum quickly. Conversely, gates five and 10 have produced the most winners since 1930.

So, which contenders landed in these starting positions, and is American Pharoah still considered the odds-on favorite following the post draw? Let's answer those questions by taking a look at the updated odds and starting gates for all 20 Kentucky Derby contenders.

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Odds and Post Positions

18American Pharoah11-4
8Dortmund13-4
2Carpe Diem9-1
3Materiality14-1
6Mubtaahij14-1
10Firing Line16-1
15Frosted16-1
12International Star20-1
19Upstart22-1
7El Kabeir33-1
9Bolo33-1
13Itsaknockout33-1
20Far Right33-1
11Stanford40-1
17Mr. Z40-1
1Ocho Ocho Ocho50-1
4Tencendur50-1
5Danzig Moon50-1
14Keen Ice50-1
16War Story50-1

Race odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Post Position Analysis

American Pharoah remains the favorite despite a poor draw. That speaks volumes to the sheer talent of this horse, as gate No. 18 has only ever produced one Kentucky Derby winner, and that was Gato Del Sol in 1982. If Pharoah is to make good on his favorite status, he must become the first horse to don the garland of roses from that starting position in 33 years.

Watch out for Dortmund. This powerful colt has been the Kentucky Derby's second favorite behind Pharoah, and that trend continues following the post draw. However, while Pharoah received a less-than-favorable outside position, Dortmund claimed the No. 8 gate that has produced eight winners over the years, most recently Mine That Bird in 2009.

Carpe Diem is holding strong as the race's third favorite, but he's in a precarious position in the No. 2 gate. While he won't have quite as much risk of getting pinned against the rail as Ocho Ocho Ocho (No. 1 gate), he'll need a blazing start to get into a good position to contend.

Materiality continues to gain steam with bettors, and that will likely continue following the post draw. He drew the No. 3 gate, which is still a bit inside but not quite as dangerous. Still, wagering on any horse so close to the rail comes with risk, as the first three positions haven't produced a winner since Real Quiet in 1998.

One horse to keep a keen eye on is Firing Line. He had a very favorable draw, acquiring the No. 10 gate. Nine horses have won the Derby from that position, with the latest being Giacomo in 2005. While Firing Line hasn't been able to defeat Dortmund in their two head-to-head races, he did lose by just a head in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Expect another close call at Churchill Downs.

The sleeper horse to watch this year may be International Star. He finished as the leading points scorer in the Road to the Kentucky Derby and has been in top form this year. He drew the No. 12 gate, which hasn't produced a winner since Canonero II in 1971, but it's still a decent position.

You may want to stay away from Mr. Z this year. Not only is this colt one of the race's biggest long shots, but he drew the notorious No. 17 gate—the only starting position that has never produced a winner in the history of the Kentucky Derby. That's not a good omen.

Far Right is aptly named, as he'll be starting in the No. 20 gate. Only Big Brown in 2008 has ever won from that far outside position, and that will likely continue to be the case following this year's race.

All historical post position information courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com.

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