2015 Kentucky Derby Field: Picks and Predictions for All Horses and Jockeys

The pieces are in place for a memorable 2015 Kentucky Derby. There's a hyped favorite in American Pharoah, strong secondary choices in Dortmund and Carpe Diem, and an all-around talented group of other hopefuls capable of creating a long-shot winner.

It's rare to see a group of three-year-old horses this complete. Typically, you either have a top-heavy field with a few legitimate contenders or a middling, evenly matched group without any standouts. This year features the best of both worlds: top-end talent and plenty of depth.

Those elements should certainly create a terrific atmosphere at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The marquee race is set to go off at 6:24 p.m. ET on NBC. Let's check out the field before previewing the action and making full predictions for the outcome.

2015 Kentucky Derby Field

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux	SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena	SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	66-1

Race Preview

Perhaps the best way to illustrate the strength of the field is by looking at International Star. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus, the winner of the 2000 Kentucky Derby, has won three straight graded stakes races, including the Louisiana Derby, and yet checks in at 20-1.

American Pharoah is the rightful favorite, but he's truly going to have to earn the victory on Saturday. The field is far too strong to overcome a lackluster performance. Ramiro A. Restrepo of the Thoroughbred Acquisition Group gives the group high praise:

Quite frankly, that makes the fact longtime trainer Bob Baffert has the top two horses in the field even more impressive. Along with American Pharoah, he's also guided Dortmund into the spotlight. It gives him a golden opportunity to make his fourth trip to the Derby winner's circle.

The 62-year-old Triple Crown stalwart knows it still won't be an easy task, though. Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated passed along Baffert's comments about the uncertainty that exists when you bring so many good horses together for a spotlight race.

"This is the like the NCAA Tournament, with the brackets," Baffert said. "Horses from the East, the South, the West. We really don't know which ones are better until we race each other. I've got good horses, but other guys have good horses, too."

Carpe Diem caught a bad break by drawing one of the extreme inside posts. The positioning puts a boatload of pressure on jockey John Velazquez to get a clean break and establish a route on the rail before the mass of horses from the outside crash down on the inside.

Chris Fallica of ESPN notes the combination of Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher hasn't led to much Derby success, either:

One horse a bit off the radar that deserves more attention is Frosted. He's coming off his best performance to date, a victory in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, and gets to work with Joel Rosario. He would get my vote as the top jockey going right now.

David Aragona of NYRA liked the connection he saw between horse and jockey during that Wood Memorial triumph:

Frosted presents a lot of value based on his current odds, especially for exotic wagering.

Ultimately, the field should ensure the Triple Crown starts on a high note. It wouldn't be a surprise if there are six or seven horses forming a competitive lead pack heading into the stretch run. The one that comes up with the best finishing kick on that day gets the coveted victory.

American Pharoah is still the horse to beat, though.

Race Predictions

Finish	Horse
1	American Pharoah
2	Frosted
3	Dortmund
4	Firing Line
5	Carpe Diem
6	Mubtaahij
7	Tencendur
8	War Story
9	Materiality
10	Upstart
11	El Kabeir
12	Far Right
13	Itsaknockout
14	Bolo
15	Stanford
16	Mr. Z
17	Danzig Moon
18	Keen Ice
19	Ocho Ocho Ocho