10 College Basketball Teams Doomed for a Rebuilding Year in 2015-16

This isn’t necessarily a disaster report. Having to rebuild or reload—whatever tone you want to use—has its benefits.

No one really thought young Duke would be a championship-contending team in 2015, but look what happened. Same goes for Michigan State, which seemed to have decent parts but not enough to make a reliable automobile to get to Indianapolis.

The beauty and agony of college basketball reaches its out-of-season peak right around now. The NBA draft guys have declared. Most transfers have switched allegiances and coaching changes are mostly in the books heading into next fall.

We’re left to look at who’s got a lot of work to do, amid significant roster shuffling.

Here is a closer look at teams which stand the risk of the biggest drop-off from last season.

Kentucky Wildcats

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Now, we’re not saying that Kentucky is going to go down in flames, like a pile of sidewalk-placed couches, after losing to Wisconsin.

But there’s certainly not going to be any undefeated talk next season. UK lost virtually every NBA prospect it had on the roster, seven in all (Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Dakari Johnson). It’s hard to say immediately, even with a high presumption of Wildcat reload, that this is a title contender right now.

This is the time for Tyler Ulis to step up after playing a very limited role last year as a freshman. The 5’9’’ guard will be complemented by old veteran Alex Poythress, who only played eight games last year, and Marcus Lee in the frontcourt.

Top recruit Skal Labissiere is 6’10’’ and will give UK the inside presence the team had in spades last season.

Coach John Calipari can crack jokes about how quickly Kentucky can bounce back. But the rest of the college basketball nation can at least take solace that the word “platoon” won’t be floating so freely around Lexington this season.

Arizona Wildcats

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Man, did some guys really desert Tucson (sorry, couldn’t resist).

Now, there was some furor a few weeks ago when it was suggested that Arizona was in danger of not making it to the NCAA tournament after another Elite Eight run. That may be extreme, because we all know the Wildcats are well coached and will continue to recruit at the level of the Dukes and Kentuckys to always stay in contention.

But basically UA’s top four contributors are gone, including two young NBA talents (Stanley Johnson, one of the last draft declarations; Rondae Hollis-Jefferson) and Brandon Ashley is gone, too, along with veteran point guard T.J. McConnell.

Another big recruiting class comes in, along with Boston College transfer Ryan Anderson (6’8’’ power forward).

This will be a prime opportunity for Gabe York and Kaleb Tarczewski to provide an inside-outside presence. Tarczewski is the lone returning starter and knows how to win. The big fella is 24 wins shy of becoming the winningest player in program history after already being part of two Elite Eight teams and one Sweet 16 team.

Getting back to that stage will obviously require him to mesh with a lot of young, new parts.

And there’s all that angst in tow, because of such close calls the last two years while coming up one step short of the Final Four.

Brigham Young Cougars

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A season’s reputation can change in the blink of an eye. BYU went from being a fun-loving, tempo-pushing, 17-point-halftime-leading team in the first half against Ole Miss to a “First Four” casualty because of an entire lack of defense and shot-making in the second.

Its roster has been overhauled just as fast.

BYU recently announced the departures of role players Frank Bartley and Isaac Neilson—Bartley’s transfer appeared to catch the coaching staff off-guard—and it adds up to losing nine players from last year’s squad that went 25-10 and even won a road game at Gonzaga.

BYU has three players about to begin serving two-year LDS (Mormon) missions. Throw in the graduations of Skyler Halford, Josh Sharp, Anson Winder and all-time Cougar scoring leader Tyler Haws, and it bears wondering how on earth Kyle Collinsworth will get a triple-double next year. Rose has some players coming back from church service and Jamal Aytes after he disappointingly missed last year with an injury.

Rose did a fantastic coaching job last season, considering all of the injuries and rotation flux. He'll need to muster every bit the same effort in 2015-16 from his staff. Though that's even seeing change.

Top assistant Mark Pope left to take the head coaching job at nearby Utah Valley University (part of the WAC). And Pope brought on board BYU’s director of basketball operations, Cody Fueger, for a promotion to assistant coach.

UNLV Rebels

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And speaking of BYU, that actually leads us to Las Vegas.

UNLV head coach Dave Rice is in what could be a make-or-break fifth season. He was the former top assistant in Provo, Utah, and ran the offense when Jimmer-mania had its clutches on the country in 2011.

The Runnin’ Rebels weren’t an NCAA tournament team last year (18-15) but we consider them because of past, major roster turnover that the program hasn’t caught up from. It has missed the last two NCAA settings and another letdown could become the first major job opening for 2016-17.

Rice lost seven key players after the 2012-13 season and five at the end of the following season. There isn’t as much turmoil heading into this year, but losing Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood to the NBA draft doesn’t bode for a good start.

Rice is a terrific recruiter and will again bring in a stud class (it helps having two of the country’s premier high school programs nearby, Bishop Gorman and Findlay Prep), but the buildup will have to be done quickly because of past failings.

Georgia State Panthers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

There are good rebuilds out there. Georgia State could easily be one of them in the big picture.

It’ll lose R.J. Hunter a year early to the NBA draft. Coach Ron’s son could be a late first-round draft pick, and the shooting guard striking while the iron was hot makes perfect sense.

It leaves dad in a little bit of a bind, but the big season—advancing in the NCAA tournament by upsetting Baylor in the round of 64—could more than make up for it.

Doug Roberson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution pointed out that D’Marcus Simonds, who was expected to attend Mississippi State, flipped to GSU to became the first four-star recruit to commit to Georgia State out of high school in the past 10 years.

Beyond that, GSU has promised to build a new practice facility. These are good days, indeed, but losing Hunter—whom the Panthers relied on so much for shooting—and senior guard Ryan Harrow could mean the dreamlike season is pretty tough to duplicate right away.

Arkansas Razorbacks

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Arkansas is one of those programs right now that makes us sad. We (as college basketball fans) say that in the nicest way possible.

The Razorbacks won 27 games last year and could’ve been primed for a huge follow-up. A wickedly talented, veteran team. Top-10 potential. But then Bobby Portis, the SEC’s best player, took his 17.5 points and 5.3 rebounds to the NBA two years early. Then Michael Qualls, a versatile 6’6’’ junior, did the same thing. It surprised a lot of folks, who figured a solid senior year could make him a better draft pick than his current second-round projection.

What could've been a team that seriously threatened Kentucky for league supremacy appears to be firmly back in the pack. The NCAA tournament suddenly becomes a question mark, too.

But these are the days of college basketball’s lives.

Throw in the graduation of Rashad Madden, Arkansas’ third-highest contributor according to KenPom, and coach Mike Anderson will require a lot of focus to not spend all of next season looking in the rear-view mirror, even as a strong recruiting class will include high-level power forward Ted Kapita.

Texas Longhorns

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

This is a different kind of rebuild than what’s been previously dissected here. Texas could very well be better than last year’s 20-win team.

The question, of course, is how a new, demanding coach—with an intense defensive system—matches with an experienced roster.

If it’s anything like Texas football, which was led last year for the first time by Smart’s close friend, Charlie Strong, it could take some time. Those Longhorns went 6-7 under a similarly demanding coach.

Perhaps that is a stretch comparison. But UT also lost Jonathan Holmes to graduation, and big man Myles Turner declared for the NBA draft.

The biggest deal so far is getting back point guard Isaiah Taylor, who missed 10 games last year with a wrist injury. He seemed genuinely excited to spend a junior year with Smart. That kind of attitude could certainly help build a skyscraper in Austin.

But it won’t be easy. Some players, perhaps most notably 6’9’’ senior Cameron Ridley, don’t exactly seem like they’ll mesh in Smart’s “Havoc.” Will the coach need to bend so the team doesn’t break?

Louisville Cardinals

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Is Rick Pitino’s program down-and-out? Of course not. But it’s worth wondering if this upcoming team is one that can make it back to the Elite Eight.

Last year took some gumption to make it that far, and now Louisville loses its top four scorers from a team Pitino freely admitted often wasn’t a particularly good scoring team.

That includes Montrezl Harrell, Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear (a senior), who have all (you guessed it) opted for the NBA path. One aspect than could actually help was losing Chris Jones to an in-season suspension, as it sped up the development of freshman point guard Quentin Snider.

"Certainly Quentin Snider filled in admirably when we had a problem, but he's got to get markedly better," Pitino said in an end-of-season interview session. "He's got to get better on defense. He's got to get better with his arc on his jump shot. He's got to get quicker, but I know he'll do it because he's a gym rat."

Louisville seems to have a lot of guys in that mold—talented, but must get markedly better next year. And what could be most noticeable is the absent leadership traits of Harrell, whose example, motor (in practices and games) and high basketball IQ won’t be easily replaced.

Getting a top-tier transfer, Drexel’s Damion Lee (24 points, six-rebound average), certainly helps steady the learning curve. His experience and defense will be critical to avoid the “rebuild” tone.

Northern Iowa Panthers

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Seth Tuttle, KenPom’s No. 5-ranked MVP last season, is graduated.

That makes it pretty simple to figure the Panthers are in for a downturn, after going 31-4.

Tuttle was a star among stars, a brilliantly effective shooter who also drew fouls, found open teammates and generally made them better.

Major contributors Deon Mitchell and Nate Buss are also gone, leaving a seemingly huge gap between the Panthers and Missouri Valley Conference rival Wichita State, which is returning a big chunk of its key figures.

Don't expect Ben Jacobson to feel a lot of external pressure to replicate 2014-15 right away. He recently signed a 10-year extension.

Wyoming Cowboys (Among Others)

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This 10th and final post could’ve gone a number of directions.

Duke has to replace four starters from last year’s national championship team. There could certainly be a drop, though four extremely high-level recruits are coming in.

Florida lost a couple of players early to the NBA draft (Chris Walker and Michael Frazier), and could also lose longtime coach Billy Donovan. But the Gators were also a losing-record team last year and could still be better this year with the incoming recruiting class.

Wisconsin loses Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker from the runner-up team. A drop is certainly plausible. But it’s Bo Ryan we’re talking about, so maybe not too drastic.

Ohio State lost (no surprise here) D’Angelo Russell to the NBA draft, and he did so much for the Buckeyes. But a solid recruiting class should help Thad Matta stay on a fairly even course.

LSU is losing standout forwards Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin after their sophomore years.

Stanford’s top three players from the NIT title team were all seniors, including Chasson Randle.

New Mexico State went to the NCAA tournament, but four of the top six players (including steals maestro Daniel Mullings) are gone to graduation.

But for the final team, we’ll pick…Wyoming.

Larry Nance Jr. headlined a group that was mostly seniors. It’ll be on versatile guard Josh Adams (who will be a senior) to keep the Pokes in the Mountain West hunt after a special season, making the NCAA field for the first time in a dozen years.

Adams is the only senior, and he could be surrounded by as many as six freshmen.

Unless noted otherwise, all recruiting info courtesy of 247 Sports.