Kentucky Derby 2015 Horses: Full Lineup, Favorites and Sleepers in 141st Race
We're getting closer and closer to race day for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. Another key part of the Derby process took place Wednesday night as the post positions were revealed.
We now know where every horse will start from and, as we've seen since the first time the starting gate was used back in 1930, that will have a huge impact on the type of performance we see out of each contender.
The post-position draw also gives us our first real look at the entire lineup of horses as well as our first chance to really sit down and look at each runner's chances in this year's Derby.
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In the sections that follow, I'll give you a look at the full lineup of horses running in this year's Derby, including post positions, odds and trainer-jockey connections. After that, we'll get into a full discussion of favorites and sleepers to watch in this year's Run for the Roses.
Let's see what we've got.
Full Lineup of Horses
| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 30-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Cristophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 20-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 30-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | Stanford | Florent Geroux | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 12 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 20-1 |
| 13 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 14 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 |
| 15 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 15-1 |
| 16 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 17 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 18 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-2 |
| 19 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 15-1 |
| 20 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 30-1 |
Favorites to Watch
Despite the new morning-line odds, and the post-position assignments, the favorites to watch remain the same. The results of the post-position draw don't change the fact that American Pharoah and Dortmund are two of, if not the two best horses in this field.
Though I'm not a huge fan of him having been assigned to the 18th starting position, AP is the best horse in this field.
The Pioneerof the Nile colt won by open lengths in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, despite never being shown the whip. Did I mention that he was already gearing down before crossing the finish line? No? Well, throw that in there, too.
AP's best Beyer number (105) ranks as just the fourth-fastest among Derby contenders, per DRF.com, but not many, if any horses in this field have a more impressive victory on their resumes than the one he worked to in the Arkansas Derby.
Like I said, not a huge fan of him starting out of the 18 hole, but Ed DeRosa of Twinspires.com summed up the whole situation in a way that should make any doubter quite comfortable:
Moving on to Dortmund, there are some concerns regarding his post position, and they're explained perfectly by this astute Twitter user:
If Dortmund finds his way into that early dogfight, he'll find himself on the outside looking in when it comes time to announce the win, place and show finishers.
That said, I don't think Dortmund is going to have too big of a problem working out of the No. 8 position. In fact, I think it gives him a rather clear-cut path to the front of the pack.
If he gets there, he can work to set a pace that not even AP can close into.
But even if he doesn't get out to an early lead, Dortmund can win coming from off the pace as well, and the Big Brown colt put that ability on full display in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity back in December.
Though the race wasn't won by the most comfortable of margins, Dortmund showed outstanding tactical speed, running a full two lengths off the brisk pace set by fellow Derby contenders Firing Line and Mr. Z.
Dortmund kicked out five wide during the turn for home but still managed to run down the two leaders through an impressive stretch run.
Maybe you're like that Twitter user above and you're still worried about Dortmund's post position. That's fine, but if nothing else, do yourself a favor and keep Dortmund on top of your ticket and remind yourself of what a ridiculous physical specimen he is.
If looking at that picture all day doesn't make you confident in him, I don't know what will.
Sleepers to Watch
Unlike the favorites to watch, some of the better sleeper choices received a bit of a boost following the post-position draw.
Mubtaahij was given what would generally be considered a less-than-desirable position to work from, but given the way he likes to sit on the rail, wait and kick out during the turn for home, it shouldn't be a problem for him. In no race was this more apparent than the UAE Derby, in which he mustered up an incredible eight-length victory, shown in the video below:
Mubtaahij's favorable post position as well as his new morning-line odds of 20-1 (really, 20-1?) make him a big-time sleeper pick. Add in Mike de Kock, one of the best trainers in the world, and you've got a horse who, providing he took well to shipping halfway across the world, could make a legitimate run in this year's Derby.
Frosted is another sleeper to watch, coming out of the 15th starting position.
The Tapit colt won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in impressive fashion. After running wide through the first turn, and wide through the entire back-stretch run, Frosted went—wait for it—three-wide through the turn for home before finishing off a two-length victory over fellow Derby contender Tencendur.
Despite the snail's pace set by front-runners Toasting Matter and Daredevil—oh, and all that running two- and three-wide business—Frosted closed, and closed hard.
Beyond that strong showing in the Wood, Frosted's connections are as solid as any horse in this field. Owned by Godolphin Racing LLC, this colt is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, whose $2,483,444 million earned in North American dirt races ranks as the fifth-best mark, per Equibase.com.
Rider Joel Rosario isn't too shabby, either, as the 30-year-old has already logged a first-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (Orb, 2013) and also in the Belmont Stakes (2014, Tonalist) and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (2010, Dakota Phone).
Consider him a major player and a must-use at 15-1 odds.
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