Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Early Payout Projections for Churchill Downs Field

Winning the Kentucky Derby is a life-changing moment for everyone involved. Everyone associated with the horse, from the owner and trainer to the jockey, etches his or her name in stone forever as a winner of the sport's biggest race. 

Most of the people who are in charge of these horses have huge bank accounts already, so it's wrong to say winning at Churchill Downs is life-changing in that regard. Instead, the purse is merely a nice boost to the already-loaded portfolio for owners, trainers and jockeys.

The odds for this year's Kentucky Derby are reflective of this idea that payouts aren't going to be life-changing unless something completely out of the box happens. Just take a look at the updated odds and how favorable they are for the top contenders.

Horse	Odds	Trainer	Jockey
American Pharoah	9-4	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
Dortmund	9-2	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
Carpe Diem	7-1	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez
Mubtaahij	12-1	Mike de Kock	N/A
Materiality	12-1	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano
Frosted	16-1	Kiaran McLaughlin	N/A
Firing Line	18-1	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens
International Star	18-1	Mike Maker	Miguel Mena
Upstart	20-1	Rick Violette Jr.	N/A
El Kabeir	33-1	John Terranova II	Calvin Borel
Far Right	33-1	Ron Moquett	Mike Smith
Bolo	40-1	Carla Gaines	Rafael Bejarano
Danzig Moon	40-1	Mark Casse	N/A
Ocho Ocho Ocho	40-1	Jim Cassidy	Elvis Trujillo
Mr. Z	40-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Ramon Vazquez
Keen Ice	40-1	Dale Romans	N/A
Itsaknockout	40-1	Todd Pletcher	N/A
War Story	40-1	Tom Amoss	N/A
Tencendur	66-1	George Weaver	Manny Franco
Stanford	66-1	Todd Pletcher	Florent Geroux
Frammento	N/A	Nick Zito	N/A
Metaboss	N/A	Jeff Bonde	N/A
Firespike	N/A	Mike Maker	N/A
Bold Conquest	N/A	Steve Asmussen	N/A
Toasting Master	N/A	Dale Romans	N/A

Per the Triple Crown website, the minimum guaranteed payout for this year's Kentucky Derby is $2 million total, with the winner receiving $1.24 million.

After the winner's share is calculated, payouts drop steeply. The site notes the second-place finisher will get $400,000, third place gets $200,000, fourth place gets $100,000 and fifth place gets $60,000. 

In the event of a tie or dead heat, the guaranteed purse for each finish then gets divided equally. So if there's a tie at second place, the two horses will each receive $200,000. 

Last year's purse featured the same $2 million guarantee, but the purse wound up being $2,177,800, with California Chrome collecting $1,417,800 from that, per KentuckyDerby.com. 

Danny Johnston/Associated Press

Looking at the list of odds, there are three horses getting all of the betting love right now. American Pharoah is riding high off an eight-length win at the Arkansas Derby on April 11, his fourth consecutive win dating back to September 2014. 

Mike Dempsey of Odds Shark provided more in-depth detail about the rapid career ascent for American Pharoah:

"

The Bob Baffert trainee won the Arkansas Derby (G1) by eight lengths as the short priced favorite, a dominating performance in his second start this year. The colt won the Rebel Stakes (G2) in his previous start off a 5 ½ month layoff, rolling to a 6 ¼ length victory.

After a fifth place finish in his debut, he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Frontrunner (G1) last year and was going to be the betting favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) until a foot issue knocked him out of the race.

"

Dortmund is a perfect 6-0 in his career and had his own dominant effort at the Santa Anita Derby on April 4, winning by 4.5 lengths. Bob Baffert also trains him, so it certainly seems reasonable to expect the 62-year-old to win his first Kentucky Derby since 2002 (War Emblem). 

One thing to keep an eye on for Dortmund, per Kenneland Dan on Twitter, is where he lines up when post positions are announced on Wednesday:

The "BB" mentioned by Kenneland Dan is Dortmund sire and 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown. 

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Carpe Diem has won four of his five career races and emerged as a betting favorite at Churchill Downs after knocking off fellow Kentucky contender Danzig Moon by three lengths at the Blue Grass Stakes. 

As much as American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem stand out on the betting line, the entire field is getting a lot of praise as one of the deepest in years. 

Bob Ehalt of ESPN.com said there's even an argument to be made that this is the deepest collection of talent in Kentucky Derby history:

"

Going back to 1955, this is the only Derby to have as many as five U.S.-based entrants who are undefeated at 3 years old.

Statistics were unavailable beyond that year, yet considering the smaller fields, amount of times horse ran at 3 prior to the Derby, and the paucity of stakes in that era, it's unlikely any of those Derbys featured five horses who were perfect at 3. Only once from 1955 through 1977 were there as many as three horses undefeated at 3 in a single Derby.

"

Last year featured the seemingly unstoppable force in California Chrome, who came within a victory at the Belmont Stakes of winning the Triple Crown. That became one of the best sports stories in 2014, only to end in defeat. 

This year, while a horse like American Pharoah or Dortmund might be considered a legitimate Triple Crown threat in an average year, putting them against each other and others like Carpe Diem, Florida Derby winner Materiality and Louisiana Derby winner International Star makes a Triple Crown seem unlikely. 

Fortunately, the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby can take some solace in knowing that the guaranteed payout is going to be well worth the time and effort the horses, trainers and jockeys have put into their craft over the last year.