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Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Sleepers Who May Win the Fastest 2 Minutes in Sports

Jessica PaquetteApr 28, 2015

The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is just days away, and while American Pharoah remains the star of the show and the favorite at odds of 5-2, courtesy of Odds Shark, the field is one of the deepest and most competitive to assemble in recent years.

Though American Pharoah has the look of a horse who could be something special, the Kentucky Derby has shown one thing over the years—very few horses are truly unbeatable. With 19 contenders ready to dethrone the Pharoah, some legitimate contenders are flying under the radar with the chance to pull off the upset.

The best thing about a horse that is as dominant a favorite as American Pharoah is that plenty of value will be had in the rest of the field. Some horses have strong records but have still gotten no respect, while others are trying to redeem themselves after disappointing recently. Here is a look at some sleepers who could step up and win Saturday.

Frosted, 16-1

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After Frosted finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2), it appeared that Kiaran McLaughlin's Kentucky Derby hopes for 2015 were dwindling. The colt had entered the race as a promising, top contender, and his performance left many, including McLaughlin, scratching his head, as he told The Associated Press, via USA Today:

"

"I thought, like everybody else in America watching the race, or around the world, that he was going to win easy," McLaughlin said of the Fountain of Youth, "and when Irad (Ortiz, Jr.) threw the reins to ask him to go, he seemed to just put his head up and stop. We were quite frustrated, so we decided to just change everything that we could."

"

He came back to redeem himself with a sharp victory in the Wood Memorial (G1) and is back on track to potentially give McLaughlin his first Derby victory. McLaughlin is no stranger to disappointment in the Kentucky Derby; in 2010, he saddled long shot Closing Argument to a runner-up finish, and last year, his top contender Cairo Prince went to the sidelines weeks before the Derby with an injury. 

Far Right, 33-1

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There is no denying that Far Right got completely dusted by American Pharoah when they met in the Arkansas Derby (G1). While American Pharoah was geared down to win by eight lengths, Far Right gamely ran on to close and finish second and was clearly the best of the rest. 

Far Right's greatest strength lies in his consistency. From nine starts, he has been on the board in eight of them, and unlike several of his rivals, he is a proven competitor at Churchill Downs. As trainer Ron Moquett told Lady and the Track, "He loves the track. He’s already won over it and hit the board in all his races over it."

Can he make up eight lengths on American Pharoah, or is the superstar colt that superior? That is a question that can only be answered on the first Saturday in May. 

Itsaknockout, 40-1

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Itsaknockout is the obvious choice in the Kentucky Derby for boxing fans, and while the colt did disappoint in the Florida Derby (G1), there is a legitimate chance he could rebound and have some long-shot potential.

Prior to the Florida Derby, the lightly raced colt was a perfect three-for-three and made his stakes debut a winning one when he placed first via disqualification in the Fountain of Youth (G2). When the Florida Derby rolled around, he seemed to struggle over the deep track and had to settle for fourth. 

With a pedigree rich in stamina, he should relish the mile-and-a-quarter distance. From only a handful of starts, he has proved to be a tactical, versatile horse and with the right trip could have a big impact. 

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Danzig Moon, 40-1

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On paper, Danzig Moon seems to be up against it. After taking three tries to break his maiden, he has not exactly excelled against stakes competition. He has faced top threat Carpe Diem twice and was fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and second in the Blue Grass (G1).

He has, however, made a positive impression at Churchill Downs while training under the Twin Spires. The colt also has earned a reputation as one tough customer to handle, as evidenced by some of assistant trainer Norman Casse's battle scars on social media:

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We have always referred to Danzig Moon as "racing's bad boy" here is an example why @ChurchillDowns #kyderby 👿 pic.twitter.com/aX0kLZga7r

— Norman W Casse (@casseracingnc) April 19, 2015"

To win the Kentucky Derby, a horse needs physical gifts but also the mental toughness to withstand the large crowds and a full field of rivals. Danzig Moon's aggression off the track could translate to a terrific performance. 

Firing Line, 16-1

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Firing Line spent the first two stakes races of his career in the massive shadow of the imposing Dortmund. After finishing second to the undefeated colt in both the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), he went out on his own and demolished the field in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) by 14 ¼ lengths.

Firing Line also has one major strength, and that is his pilot, Gary Stevens. The veteran jockey is no stranger to success in the Kentucky Derby, and since returning from a knee replacement surgery in the fall, he has been better than ever. Though he will be competing against jockeys nearly half his age, he is still at the top of his game.

Firing Line will have to face his rival Dortmund again. Perhaps this time he can turn the tables on the tenacious chestnut or at least thrill the racing world with a renewal of their rivalry.

International Star, 18-1

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International Star has done everything right in his three-year-old year and yet remains overlooked and potentially at big odds. Though his juvenile season was nothing spectacular, he went undefeated in three starts as a sophomore and at this point has passed every test.

He has a good closing kick, and that is the type of running style that could set him up for success in the Kentucky Derby. While his victory last time out in the Louisiana Derby (G2) was not visually impressive as he only won by a neck, it was a game effort, and he did prove that he has the will to win.

He has accumulated more points than any other contender this year and despite that seems like a forgotten horse heading toward the Derby. 

Mr. Z, 40-1

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Mr. Z is a massive long shot and, based on his unimpressive resume, justifiably so. At this point, his greatest claim to fame may be the fact that, as youngsters growing up together in Kentucky, he may have been the one that chewed off American Pharoah's tail, leaving the likely Derby favorite without flowing locks.

However, Mr. Z has one major positive in his corner: D. Wayne Lukas. He is the master of the Triple Crown and is the sort of trainer you can never throw out on a big day. Mr. Z has a lot of catching up to do to be considered in the big leagues along with American Pharoah and the other top contenders, but disregard him at your own risk. 

Mubtaahij, 10-1

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Mubtaahij is the biggest wild card heading into the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby. While he was a visually impressive winner of the UAE Derby (G1), he is following a trajectory to the Run for the Roses that has not been successful at all up until this point.

He will be trying to make history and could have some potential to steal the show. With such a talented and fast group of colts, there is a chance that some serious pace could be set up for a horse from off the pace. While there are other closers in the race, Mubtaahij has shown a devastating turn of foot, and his explosive kick could make him a dangerous contender. 

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