The 5 Most Intriguing 2015 NBA Draft Prospects for the Miami Heat
The Miami Heat aren't exactly known for using the NBA draft to build their squad. Team president Pat Riley has always preferred to create the core of his roster through trades or free agency, as he believes experience wins. He recently said, per the Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman:
"Every time you guys turn on the television and watch a playoff game, take a look at who's out on the court, the top eight or nine guys, with the exception of maybe one or two. But the very, very best teams in this league are playing developed players, who have had three or four years, or five or 10 years of experience.
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Not all that much has changed in Miami—the Heat are attempting to re-sign Goran Dragic to a max-level contract this summer. But Miami is also slated to add a major piece through the draft for the first time in years.
The Heat are more than likely going to have the 10th pick in this year's draft. There's a 9 percent chance they convey the pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, (should it fall outside the top 10, per Winderman) and a 4 percent chance they luck into a top-three pick, per NBA.com. But the odds suggest they'll be picking at No. 10 come June.
Assuming it re-signs Dragic, Miami is pretty well-stocked at point guard and in the frontcourt. There is, however, a real need for a wing who can back up Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. The Heat are ideally looking for a player who can both shoot and defend at a high level and who has plenty of potential moving forward.
No. 5: Willie Cauley-Stein—Junior, Center
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Miami will, in all likelihood, take a wing with its pick—its needs there are too big to ignore. But should Willie Cauley-Stein be available at No. 10, the Heat might be tempted to go a different direction—especially if they're unsure about their ability to retain Hassan Whiteside for the next few years.
Cauley-Stein is a polished defensive product with a chance to be one of the league's best on that end. He's a fantastic athlete and showed a real knack for swatting shots at Kentucky. He averaged 3.6 blocks per 40 minutes over the course of his college career. He's also somewhat unique in the sense that he doesn't often sacrifice his positioning to chase blocks. That's a rarity for a young big.
Cauley-Stein isn't just a rim protector, however. He's extremely versatile. DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony recently wrote:
"He legitimately guarded five positions for Kentucky this season, showing incredible versatility and agility covering ground on the perimeter and staying in front of players much smaller than him.
His exceptionally quick feet give him the ability to switch seamlessly on pick and rolls, and he does a great job of contesting shots on the perimeter or recovering into the paint and offering rim protection.
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That kind of flexibility makes him just about the perfect big for Miami's defensive scheme. He has the quickness to blitz ball-handlers and zip back to his man or to aggressively hedge on even the league's most athletic guards and wings. A Cauley-Stein-Chris Bosh defensive combo could be a nightmare to attack in the pick-and-roll.
Cauley-Stein's also not a terrible offensive player, though he's much more limited offensively than defensively. He's a very good finisher (he shot 72.7 percent at the rim, per hoop-math.com) and drew a lot of fouls this season.
He's also improved his free-throw shooting over the years. He shot 62 percent at the line this year, up from 37 percent as a freshman. That bodes well for his ability to some day develop a workable mid-range jumper someday.
No. 4: Kelly Oubre—Freshman, Small Forward
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Kelly Oubre is one of the top-rated wings in the 2015 draft class, per ESPN's Chad Ford, and he has the potential to be a great two-way player. The problem is that potential, and not actual basketball ability, is probably his biggest draw right now.
He averaged just 21 minutes per game this season and wasn't terribly productive in those minutes. Riley has made it very clear that he's looking for polished players who can make an impact immediately. And in that sense, Oubre might not be the best fit in Miami.
Still, he's got great physical tools, and that alone might convince the Heat to gamble on him. He should be a plus defender from day one and could be one of the league's best defensive wings if everything breaks right. He's quick enough to guard most 2s and 3s, though he doesn't yet have the size (he's listed at just 200 pounds) to bang with bigger forwards.
Offensively, Oubre is a mixed bag. He shot an encouraging 36 percent from deep and has serious three-and-D potential should a team decide to lead him down that development path. He's also a scoring threat in transition, which could be appealing to a Heat team that's looking to push the pace next season.
Oubre's problem is shot selection. He's a bit of a gunner and can fall in love with his pull-up jumper. Nearly a third of his jumpers came inside the arc, and he was assisted on just 20.7 percent of them, per Hoop-Math.com. Part of that is due to his shaky handle. It's entirely possible that he would fare much better on the Heat, where he wouldn't handle the ball so much.
No. 3: Sam Dekker—Junior, Small Forward
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Sam Dekker doesn't have quite as high a ceiling as the other players on this list. But he might be the most NBA-ready wing on the board and should be a useful player immediately.
Dekker is a jack-of-all-trades. DraftExpress' Givony recently wrote:
"He is good in transition, can attack his man off the dribble, moves off the ball intelligently, crashes the offensive glass, and can make an open jumper, giving him many different ways he can contribute to a NBA team early on in his career.
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While his lack of an elite skill may hurt his chance at stardom, it makes him a terrific glue guy. Dekker is the type of player who just fills needs, and that might be what Miami needs most of all.
A big part of what makes him so efficient offensively (60.5 percent true shooting this season) is his shot selection. Nearly 82 percent of his shots came either at the rim or from behind the arc, per Hoop-Math.com. He showed some good off-the-bounce punch and the ability to create a lot of space for himself with a wicked step-back jumper.
The biggest concern surrounding Dekker is his shooting. He shot 39 percent from three as a freshman. Unfortunately, he followed that up with seasons of 32.6 and 33.1 percent shooting from behind the arc.
Miami doesn't necessarily need an elite shooter at the three, but it would ideally have someone who could hit something like 36 percent or greater from outside. Dekker may not be capable of that at the moment.
Defensively, he offers similar versatility, though he doesn't have the physical tools of the other top-rated wings. He's a good athlete and should be able to defend both forward positions without many problems.
Because of that defense, he has the potential to be a scary small-ball 4. Bigger 4s may be able to bully him on the block, but he could go right back at them off the dribble. Deng currently serves that role for Miami, but he has a 2015 player option, per HoopsHype, and could be gone next season. Dekker would be a solid replacement.
No. 2: Stanley Johnson—Freshman, Small Forward
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Stanley Johnson likely isn't quite as NBA-ready as Riley would like. But he could be a rotation player even as a rookie, and he has a ton of potential on both ends.
Johnson, like Oubre, is a great athlete who should be able to defend the 2 through 4 at the next level. He's a massive wing (DraftExpress lists him at 6'8” and 243 pounds), and Miami could throw him at even bruising bigs such as David West with little fear. He's also a very good rebounder for a wing, pulling down 19.1 percent of available defensive boards this season.
Offensively, Johnson is a quirky player. Young, defensive-minded wings tend to fit a similar profile on offense. They're typically weak ball-handlers with shaky jumpers who make up for those deficiencies by killing defenses in transition and at the rim.
Johnson does not fit that mold. He shot 37 percent from deep this season and showed a refined pull-up game. He shot 44.4 percent on pull-up two-point jumpers, very few of which were assisted, per Hoop-Math.com.
Conversely, he fared poorly close to the basket. Only about 29 percent of his shots came at the rim, and he hit 53 percent of them, per Hoop-Math.com. According to DraftExpress' Givony, he connected on just 40 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court settings. That's a terrible mark for any wing, let alone one with Johnson's physical gifts.
Still, his combination of defense and shooting is rare and would make him a terrific fit alongside Dragic and Wade. He may not make it all the way to No. 10—most mock drafts have him slotted in the five to eight range. But if he is available, Miami may have a hard time passing on him.
No. 1: Mario Hezonja—20 Years Old, Shooting Guard
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As good as the other prospects listed here are, none of them have quite the upside of Mario Hezonja. Like with Johnson, it would be a surprise if he fell to No. 10. But if he does, the Heat should snatch him up immediately.
Hezonja, who last played for FC Barcelona, is an amazing athlete. He routinely does things like this and would be one of the most athletic wings in the league from day one.
He's not an athletic project, though. He has a lot of skill, and FC Barcelona uses him in a lot of different ways offensively. He's a good secondary ball-handler who's experienced at scoring in the pick-and-roll and is a strong shooter as well. He hit 38.2 percent from deep this season and can shoot while spotting up or on the move.
FC Barcelona ran Hezonja through a lot of screens, a la Klay Thompson, and he often cashed in on those opportunities. He's really quick and has great footwork—he's often able to fool his defender by leaning one way and then darting past a screen in the opposite direction.
He's also not short of confidence. In January, he told Basketball Insiders' David Pick:
"If I was in college I’d probably be the No. 1 pick. I had an offer from Kentucky. I’m European and I need to work harder to break into the U.S market."
It's good that Hezonja is so sure of himself, but his confidence can sometimes be a weakness. He has a tendency to hunt for his own shot, even when teammates are available for easier looks. Head coach Erik Spoelstra would have to be patient with him if he was drafted by Miami.
Defensively, Hezonja has all the tools to be great. But he has a tendency to fall into some of the traps that many young wings do. Though he's a solid on-ball defender, he's sometimes inattentive and often gets caught ball-watching.
His athleticism makes him perfect for Miami's blitzing defense, though. With some proper coaching, he could be quite good on that end.
All statistics accurate as of 4/26/2015 and courtesy of Sports-Reference.com/cbb unless stated otherwise.
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