A Scout's Take on the Round 1 Strategy of the Green Bay Packers

We are now just four days away from the beginning of the 2015 NFL draft. The Green Bay Packers will have pick No. 30 in the first round of the draft, which will be held on Thursday night. 

It would seem likely that the Packers would address either the cornerback or inside linebacker position with that selection.

Those positions happen to be the Packers' two primary needs.

But one never knows with general manager Ted Thompson.

"You factor everything in, but [drafting for need] doesn't carry as much weight as it might with other organizations, because they go about weighing those things differently than we do," Thompson said last week during his pre-draft press conference.

"There's a certain amount of weighing in terms of need, but I am adamant that that's not the way to draft," he continued. "The way to draft is to take the best player because you don't know what you're going to need. You think you need something, but this isn't play time or anything like that. This is real life. People get banged up, injuries happen, life happens."

So although cornerback and inside linebacker are the positions at which the Packers need the most quality depth, Thompson may select the best player on his board at a different position.

Case in point—even though it's unlikely, what if running back Melvin Gordon is available at pick No. 30? And what if Gordon is the top-rated player on Thompson's board?

I could definitely see Thompson taking him. Yes, the Packers have Eddie Lacy, who is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but he plays a bruising style of football that gets him nicked up from time to time.

Adding to that, backup running back James Starks will be an unrestricted free agent in 2016.

Could you imagine a Lacy/Gordon combination to go along with the potent passing attack of the Packers?

In terms of the Packers' draft strategy in the first round, I wanted to get the take of NFL scout Chris Landry, who is one of the best in the business.

I had the opportunity to speak with Landry on 620 WDAE's Steve Duemig Show last Friday.

First, it's important to know the amount of first- and second-round grades Landry has on the various prospects in this draft. Landry has them listed on his horizontal draft board on LandryFootball.com.

Landry has 19 players who have first-round grades. He also has 45 players who have second-round grades. That means the Packers will most likely be selecting a player to whom Landry has assigned a second-round grade.

But not if Gordon falls to the Packers, as Landry has a first-round grade on the former Wisconsin Badger.

Getting back to the draft strategy of Thompson and the Packers, Landry talked about what they might do at No. 30.

"We'll see what they do with that first pick," Landry said. "It's going to be interesting at [No.] 30. You are getting second-round value there.

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"Maybe someone like [inside linebacker] Benardrick McKinney or Jalen Collins at corner. But it's going to be interesting to see as you get closer. You've got about 18 or 19 first-round grades, so picking at [No.] 30, is a guy going to drop, or are they going to move back?

"All those things come into play when you are picking late in the draft."

Speaking of getting closer to the draft, Albert Breer of NFL.com reported on Friday that Collins failed multiple drug tests while at LSU. How that will change Collins' draft status remains to be seen.

Landry breaks down the Packers' team needs and draft strategy even more extensively on his site:

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Strategy and Personnel 

Best fit: CB Jalen Collins, LSU

The free-agent losses of longtime starter Tramon Williams and would-be successor Davon House probably has general manager Ted Thompson paying closer attention to an impressive upper echelon of cornerbacks in this draft class. Depending on how the board shakes out before Green Bay's turn at No. 30 in the first round, Thompson could be faced with choosing between Florida State's starter-ready P.J. Williams and an untested Collins. In the wake of P.J. Williams' recent DUI arrest, the safer pick just might be the imposing Collins, whose imposing 6'1", 203-pound frame and boundless potential as a playmaker on the boundary outweighs having only 10 college starts in three seasons. If they feel like taking Collins is a reach here, or if they do not have a comfort level with him, they could look to a guy such as Benardrick McKinney, ILB from Mississippi State, a second-round value, but that is what their draft board will be showing at this point.

 

Team Needs

1. Cornerback

Heir apparent Davon House (Jacksonville Jaguars) preceded the departure of veteran starter Tramon Williams (Cleveland Browns) in free agency last month. The Packers can go about addressing a suddenly glaring need right away in the draft with a good group of cornerbacks expected to get plenty of first-round attention. Green Bay runs the risk of having to plug in slot-cover holdovers Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde, the latter of whom was converted to safety last offseason, on the perimeter to start opposite Sam Shields. The Packers can avoid that experiment by selecting a natural, proven boundary cornerback if they stay put at No. 30 in Round 1 or by sliding back into the top half of Round 2.

Visits by defensive backs: 1, workout, Darryl Roberts, CB, Marshall (WO)

2. Inside linebacker

If general manager Ted Thompson rolls the dice by turning to Hayward or Hyde as a full-time contributor at cornerback, then targeting a playmaker at another defensive position in major flux this offseason figures to be in order with the first pick. The Packers have yet to replace underachieving veterans A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, who were cut in February for substantial cost savings. Of the two starting spots at inside linebacker purportedly open, one figures to be filled by young up-and-comer Sam Barrington. If defensive coordinator Dom Capers still wants to capitalize on All-Pro outside linebacker Clay Matthews' versatility to flourish inside as he did on a situational basis the second half of last season, then the Packers may be inclined to target another pass-rusher.

Visits by linebackers: None

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I agree with Landry that McKinney could be the choice at No. 30 in the first round if the Packers do decide to select an inside linebacker, but I also believe that the Packers would entertain picking either Stephone Anthony of Clemson or Paul Dawson of TCU with that pick as well.

So will the Packers select a cornerback or an inside linebacker with the 30th pick?

Or will they just select the best player on their board no matter his position?

Or will the Packers trade back a few spots to get early second- and fourth-round picks like they did in 2008?

We will find out late in the evening this upcoming Thursday.