Realistic Expectations for Real Madrid's Jese Rodriguez in the 2015/16 Season

Jese Rodriguez has received limited game time at Real Madrid since returning from the anterior cruciate ligament injury that kept him out of action for six months from March to December last year.

He scored off the bench on his return to action against lower-division side Cornella in the Copa del Rey on December 2. But he has subsequently received just 406 minutes of playing time across 17 appearances in all competitions, as per Soccerway.

Prior to handing the young forward his first start of the season at home to Eibar on April 2, Carlo Ancelotti explained that a gradual reintroduction to first-team action was always to be expected given the severity of Jese’s injury.

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Now he's starting to get into good shape. He has needed time to recover from his injury. It's normal to return to action after nine or ten months, but they have problems for up to a year. Khedira had problems. Now I think he's going to be fine, he lacks minutes but I think he's going to get more minutes until the end of the season.

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Jese went on to score the third and final goal against Eibar. He will hope to get further opportunities to start between now and the end of season, particularly in light of recent injuries to Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema.

But looking beyond the current campaign, what should realistically be expected of the 22-year-old in the 2015-16 season? It is a question with an answer that very much depends on where he will be playing his football.

On Saturday, Alvaro de la Rosa of AS reported that Jese has decided to leave the Bernabeu at the end of the campaign. His introduction in injury time of the Champions League quarter-final, second-leg victory over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday was the final straw for a player who has become frustrated at his lack of game time since his return from injury.

De la Rosa notes that Madrid have no intention of selling the young forward outright. A loan deal or a sale with a repurchase option are the only alternatives they will consider.

The attraction of a move away is obvious. Jese need only look at Denis Cheryshev, who is flourishing on loan at Villarreal, or Alvaro Morata, who has been highly impressive since his move to Juventus, and think that he, too, could be making similar waves given more opportunities to impress.

He would not be short of suitors. Per Simon Jones of the Daily Mail, Everton and West Ham United have both made enquiries as to his availability. Closer to home, Espanyol were heavily linked with a loan move for the Canarian in December, as per Cadena Cope radio (h/t Inside Spanish Football).

Alastair Grant/Associated Press

These kind of mid-ranking clubs would be the best fit for a player who is keen to secure regular first-team football. Any side able to offer him 20 or more league starts would represent a good option.

Per WhoScored.com, Jese has notched seven goals and five assists in 1,048 minutes of league and Champions League action for Madrid since making his league debut in 2012. That averages out to a direct contribution to a goal every 87 minutes.

That rate would most likely drop slightly in a lower-ranking team. But an output equivalent to that managed by Cheryshev at Villarreal should be within his reach. Per WhoScored, the Russian has notched four goals and nine assists in 1,693 minutes of league action to date.

That averages out at a direct contribution to a goal every 130 minutes or so.

AS reported in January that Cheryshev’s form at Villarreal had been sufficiently impressive for Madrid to want him back at the end of the season. With a similar output out on loan, Jese would strengthen his own claim for regular minutes at the Bernabeu.

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Cheryshev's father: "My son's plan is to win trophies w/ RMadrid. He's happy at Villarreal, but he wants to return." pic.twitter.com/ypS7K7dH7k

— RMadridHome (@RMadridHome) February 3, 2015"

A temporary move away from the club currently looks the most likely outcome for the 22-year-old. Particularly if Madrid dip into the transfer market to add another forward to their squad this summer.

If he were to stay, Jese would want assurances over the volume of game time he should expect. At minimum, 15-20 starts in all competitions and regular substitute appearances. Given those kind of minutes, and based on his previous output, he would be expected to produce a direct contribution to goal every 100-115 minutes.

The 2015-16 season is likely to be a decisive one for Jese’s career in Madrid. Whether at the club or on loan elsewhere, he will need to produce a regular end product to prove that he has a long-term future at the Bernabeu.