Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Final Vegas Odds and Projections for Top Horses

In what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Kentucky Derby fields in years, the line between the favorites and everyone else isn't pronounced. The event is set for 6:24 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Last year, everyone knew California Chrome was the best horse on the track at Churchill Downs. The only question was how long would it take him to pull away from the field. That made for great theater, especially as he marched to a near-Triple Crown, but 2015 is different. 

There are favorites in this year's field for a good reason, but when a field can go seven or eight deep, it leads to a lot of fun and excitement on race day. 

Before the horses and jockeys step on the dirt to take their post, here are the final odds to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby and projections for the race. 

Kentucky Derby Odds

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Note: Per the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter, El Kabeir (No. 7) withdrew from the race. Per Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form, Stanford (No. 11) withdrew from the race. 

Projections

Uncredited/Associated Press

Only time will tell if American Pharoah vs. Dortmund can stand alongside some of the biggest rivalries in horse racing, but there's little doubt those are the two names everyone is watching heading into the Kentucky Derby. 

American Pharoah has been the favorite to win this race since winning the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. It was his fourth consecutive victory going back to September. 

Gary West of ESPN called American Pharoah's victory in Arkansas an emphatic statement because it was so different than his past wins:

"

In his previous victories, American Pharoah had controlled everything from start to finish, leading throughout. He had worked behind horses in the mornings and had run down targets in workouts, but his natural speed and talent had enabled him to dominate his races from the initial jump out of the gate. But Saturday, Bridget's Big Luvy, the winner of the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park in Maryland, sprang out of the gate and grabbed the early advantage, running the opening half-mile in 45.99 seconds and three-quarters of a mile in 1:10.54.

"

A challenge is exactly what a dominant horse needs before the Kentucky Derby. With a field this talented, the gap between the best and worst closes dramatically. American Pharoah proved he doesn't need to run out front to win a race as had been his previous M.O.

Despite the excitement around the horse, trainer Bob Baffert told the Associated Press (via MLive.com) that he's trying to keep everything in perspective: 

"We're trying to keep our excitement to a normal level because I know the disappointment in this game," Baffert said. "I know that uppercut is waiting for you around the corner."

That's probably hard to do for Baffert, who also trains Dortmund. It would be a safe bet to expect the 62-year-old trainer to capture his fourth Kentucky Derby and first since 2002. 

As good as American Pharoah has looked, Dortmund isn't far behind. He has yet to lose a race, jumping out to a 6-0 record, and Beth Harris of the Associated Press (via Yahoo Sports) noted that record and running style bode well for Churchill Downs:

"

The colt is a son of 2008 Derby winner Big Brown. He brings a gaudy 6-0 record into Churchill Downs, equaling the records of Seattle Slew in 1977 and Smarty Jones in 2004 when they both won the Derby. He proved he can win with a front-running style in his last two starts in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Earlier in his career, he stalked the pace and came from behind to win.

"

If you can boast having the same DNA as Big Brown and a career record on par with Smarty Jones and Seattle Slew, something good is bound to happen. 

Given the track records of American Pharoah and Dortmund, they have to be the picks to go win-place in either order. Dortmund gets a slight edge for the top spot because he's got a more pristine track record and is coming off a win at Santa Anita, which has produced two of the last three Derby winners. 

Finding the horse for show is a bit trickier. Carpe Diem has the odds in his favor thanks to a big win at the Blue Grass Stakes, but in terms of value, Materiality looks really good. 

Materiality doesn't have a resume that leaps out at you with just three races (all wins) under his belt. Yet it's the way trainer Todd Pletcher has handled him that's encouraging. The three-year-old went from competing in a six-furlong race in January to winning consecutive nine-furlong races over a three-week span in March. 

The Florida Derby is Materiality's greatest triumph to date, upsetting the favorite Upstart to prove he is a serious Kentucky Derby contender. 

An underrated aspect of Materiality's style, pointed out by Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse, is how smart and aware of the surroundings he has been during practice sessions:

Another point in his favor is lineage. If Dortmund gets points for being the son of Big Brown, Materiality has to get recognition for being the son of 2005 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion Afleet Alex. 

It's easy to wonder if Materiality's lack of race experience compared to the rest of the field will hurt him soon, but all the pieces are in place for him to be a monster this Triple Crown season. 

Prediction: Dortmund (Win), American Pharoah (Place), Materiality (Show)