Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Race-Day Picks for Top Horses and Jockeys

The 2015 Kentucky Derby features an intriguingly deep field. The talented group bodes well for fans hoping for a memorable Run for the Roses. The same might not hold true for those waiting to see the extended Triple Crown drought end.

By now, the name Affirmed is firmly in the mind of sports fans. He's the last horse to capture the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont in the same year, which was 1978. Many have come close, but none have matched the feat ever since.

Given the highly competitive nature of this year's three-year-old group, it's going to take a rise in form for a horse to do it this Triple Crown season. The journey starts at Churchill Downs. Let's check out all of the key details for the first leg along with a closer look at the top contenders.

Race Information

Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky

When: Saturday, May 2, at 6:24 p.m. ET

Watch: NBC

Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra

2015 Kentucky Derby Field

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Breaking Down Top Contenders

American Pharoah (Jockey: Victor Espinoza)

If you watched American Pharoah's racing debut, a maiden special weight at Del Mar last August, you wouldn't have thought he was a monster in the making. He finished fifth, failing to showcase the necessary top-end speed to succeed on the Triple Crown trail.

Some connections may have decided to pull back the reins after that performance. His pushed forward, and he rewarded that faith with a terrific showing in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity. It marked the first of four straight victories leading into the Derby.

He's trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, who also works with fellow top contender Dortmund. While they are both impressive horses, they tackle a race in different manners. The Courier-Journal's Derby News feed provided an NBA comparison from Baffert:

Working with Victor Espinoza should help American Pharoah's cause. The 42-year-old jockey did an outstanding job with California Chrome in the Derby last year. Expect a similar strategy of staying just a bit off the pace before making a charge around the final turn.

Pick: Winner

Dortmund (Jockey: Martin Garcia)

The fact that Dortmund is an imposing presence on the track doesn't come as much surprise once you learn he was sired by Big Brown. The 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner made many of his opponents look like the mini horses you might see at a county fair.

Dortmund has followed in his footsteps with a dominant start to his career. He's won all six of his career races heading into the Derby, including two Grade I and two Grade II contests. His strong finishing kick in the most recent, the Santa Anita Derby, solidified him as a top Triple Crown contender.

Having two upper-echelon horses in the same group is a coup for Baffert. He won three Kentucky Derby titles in a six-year span ending in 2002. He hasn't been back in the winner's circle since, though. Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports discussed what his presence means on these big stages:

Dortmund has worked well with Garcia at the helm. The question is whether the jockey, who's never conquered the tricky Derby, can find enough room in a crowded field to set him up for the horse's preferred late charge. The answer could decide the race.

Pick: 3rd Place

Carpe Diem (Jockey: John Velazquez)

If there's a horse capable of outshining the dynamic Baffert duo at the Derby, or elsewhere on the Triple Crown journey, it's likely Carpe Diem. The Todd Pletcher trainee has won four of his five career races and is coming off his most complete performance in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes.

His only loss was a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. That's not a major concern, though. He actually posted his best 1 1/16-mile time in the race. It was just a strong field that maintained a good pace, with Texas Red edging him in the end.

As always, these spotlight races always come down to which horse is displaying top form at the right time. His win in the Blue Grass was a positive sign. Matt May from Keeneland Race Course believes he's a legitimate threat:

Velazquez has one Derby win under his belt. It came thanks to a little good fortune, as Robby Albarado couldn't mount Animal Kingdom in 2011 due to an illness. Johnny V stepped in and made the most of the opportunity. He'll try to secure a more standard trip to the winner's circle this time around.

Pick: 6th Place