Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Updated Race-Day Outlook for Top Favorites
The cream always rises to the top, and heading into the 2015 Kentucky Derby, a small handful of horses have emerged as the favorites in the Run for the Roses.
Owning the most favorable odds isn't a guarantee for success, of course. Anything can happen on the track, and plenty of talented colts have fallen flat on their faces at Churchill Downs in the past.
With that said, horses are favorites for a reason. They have generally established themselves in major races before, and they possess the physical traits necessary to topple the competition.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Here's a look at four of the top favorites for the 2015 Derby.
Top Favorites
American Pharoah (13/5)
No horse is heading into Churchill Downs with as much hype as American Pharoah. The three-year-old colt has won his last four races, including the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes. In both, American Pharoah won with relative ease. He flipped a switch down the final stretch, and nobody could keep up.
Of course, it's impossible to accurately predict exactly how a race will unfold, but the Kentucky Derby is American Pharoah's to lose. He's a brilliant blend of size and speed, and with jockey Victor Espinoza, he has somebody who knows what it takes to win the Derby.
Expect American Pharoah to start strongly out of the gate and stick near the front of the pack until the last half-mile or so. That's when Espinoza will really let the colt loose, and if American Pharoah hits his stride, he'll capture the Run for the Roses.
Starting in the 18th post position should ensure that American Pharoah doesn't get caught on the rail, which is a concern with a horse of his size.
Dortmund (15/4)
It's good to be Bob Baffert. Not only is the legendary trainer handling the odds-on favorite American Pharoah, he's also working with Dortmund, who currently boasts the second-best odds of winning.
Baffert had a unique way of comparing the two horses.
"They're two different types," he said, per Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal in Louisville, Kentucky. "Dortmund, he's all lanky—built like a greyhound. This horse (American Pharoah)—he's more of a full package. Like Shaq and Kobe Bryant, you know? But they're both really good horses, and we don't know how good they really are."
Although Dortmund is undefeated in his professional career—six wins in six races—some of his victories came by the slimmest of margins, most notably the Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
Dortmund is rightly considered a favorite for the Derby, but don't be surprised if he fails to live up to expectations. He may dig himself into a hole with a slow start that eliminates him from contention later in the race.
Carpe Diem (7/1)
Carpe Diem hasn't been perfect in his competitive racing career, but he's not too far off that mark. In five races, the three-year-old owns four wins and one second-place finish. With that kind of success rate, it's not a big surprise he's one of the favorites for the the Derby.
Some might question Carpe Diem's chances through no fault of his own. The colt's trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a less than glittering record at Churchill Downs. Aside from Super Saver's win in 2010, his horses have more than often disappointed.
"Clearly, we would love to win the Kentucky Derby," said Pletcher, per Tom Pedulla of The New York Times. "We try to make sense of it, and we probably throw more in there at the end than we should have. We ran horses that probably needed a miracle to make it happen."
Maye Carpe Diem can help Pletcher turn around that narrative.
The key for the colt will be getting off to a great start. He isn't used to coming from behind to win, so a poor initial run out from the gate might doom him right at the beginning.
Carpe Diem is certainly talented enough to win the Derby, but he should be considered one of the outsiders today. Navigating the race from the No. 2 post position will be extremely difficult with so many horses converging on the rail. Carpe Diem could be in trouble early.
Mubtaahij (12/1)
Mubtaahij is one of the great unknowns of this year's Kentucky Derby. The colt hasn't proven himself against some of the better American horses. All of his races have taken place at the Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.
Trainer Michael F. De Kock remains confident as to Mubtaahij's chances, per Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse:
"Given the little I know about the horses that are in there, the emphasis in America does seem to be on speed, and he's a horse who can relax fairly well off a hot pace and has a big kick and will be doing his best running toward the end. Certainly I'm not there to match the American horses for speed; I don't think we have that ability. But I do know we have the ability to get the 10 furlongs and we have the ability to come home strong the last three or four furlongs.
"
Clearly, distance won't be a problem for Mubtaahij. His last two victories came at 1 3/16 miles.
However, Mubtaahij remains too much of an unknown for me to label him a favorite for the Run for the Roses. Another reason to question his chances is the fact he drew the sixth position. According to KentuckyDerby.com, horses from the No. 6 gate won just twice between 1930 and 2012.
Note: Kentucky Derby odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
