Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Horses, Jockeys with Best Shot at Triple Crown

In the final hours before the 2015 Kentucky Derby begins, a lot of the conversation revolves around the horses. It's understandable because they are the ones who ultimately cross the finish line and get the accolades, but these animals need help from the jockeys who ride them. 

A horse and jockey are like a pitcher and catcher in baseball. They work so closely with each other to develop a feel for things that do and don't work on the field or track that the bond becomes almost familial.

The jockey has to know when to push the horse or when to pull back before making a move, whether it's to try to win a race or preserve the animal's health. 

This year's Kentucky Derby features horses who are capable of putting together a three-race streak to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. They aren't going to do it alone, as the jockey plays a pivotal role in the process. 

Going over the field at Churchill Downs, here are the best horse-jockey duos capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. 

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	17-2
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	50-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillion	Mike de Kock	12-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	33-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	7-2
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	14-1
11	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	22-1
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
15	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	22-1
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	33-1
20	Frammento	Joe Bravo	Nick Zito	N/A

Note: Per Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form, Stanford (No. 12 post) withdrew from the race and Frammento will take his spot. As a result, all horses who initially drew posts 13-20 will move up one spot with Frammento starting out of the 20th gate. 

Dortmund (Jockey: Martin Garcia)

Uncredited/Associated Press

If there is going to be a horse-jockey pairing to break the 37-year streak without a Triple Crown winner, Dortmund and Martin Garcia are an obvious starting point. He got an excellent draw, starting from the eighth post. 

The reason to start here is because Dortmund checks all of the major boxes one could look for, which The Associated Press (via Sports Illustrated) breaks down:

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Dortmund comes into the Derby with a 6-0 record, equaling the marks of Seattle Slew and Smarty Jones when they won the Derby in 1977 and 2004, respectively. He's got the pedigree, too, having been sired by 2008 Derby winner Big Brown. His front-running style could keep him out of trouble in the jammed field.

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Dortmund enters the Kentucky Derby coming off an impressive 4 ¼-length win at the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Two of the last three winners at Santa Anita (California Chrome, 2014; I'll Have Another, 2012) have gone on to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown. 

Just using that track record and raw talent are a good baseline for Dortmund to win all three Triple Crown races. 

Uncredited/Associated Press

Garcia is looking for his first career Kentucky Derby win, but he's no stranger to success at Churchill Downs. The 30-year-old rode Plum Pretty to a victory in the 2011 Kentucky Oaks and has been on Dortmund's back for all six of his victories. He also has a win at the Preakness Stakes (Lookin At Lucky, 2010). 

Speaking to Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form after the Santa Anita Derby, Garcia said that Dortmund can essentially toy with opponents before turning on the jets: “He can play around a bit, but when someone comes to him or I ask him to go, he’s push-button. He takes off.”

While Dortmund can't afford to waste time at the Kentucky Derby because the field is as deep as it has been in years, the fact that he's able to go from zero to 60 in the blink of an eye is a nice trick to have in the back pocket if needed. 

It also helps that Garcia has ridden Dortmund in all of his races. There are no surprises between the two heading into the gate and off the starting block. 

American Pharoah (Jockey: Victor Espinoza)

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Just in terms of raw talent, the only horse in Dortmund's league is American Pharoah. He's been rolling, coming into Churchill Downs with four consecutive wins, including an eight-length romp at the Arkansas Derby over fellow Kentucky Derby contenders Far Right and Mr. Z.

Gary West of ESPN noted that since 2004, the Arkansas Derby has been an accurate indicator of success in Kentucky:

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Since Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby in 2004 and went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, no race has been more productive in terms of top-four finishes at Churchill Downs than this race at Oaklawn Park. But even longtime Arkansas Derby observers couldn't remember a more impressive performance in the race than American Pharoah's.

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It's also helpful that American Pharoah is being ridden by Victor Espinoza, who has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown twice in his career (2002, 2014). 

The gap between American Pharoah and Dortmund has been a conversation piece leading up to the Kentucky Derby. That gap is minuscule, according to Bob Baffert, who trains both of them. But he did seem to favor American Pharoah in comments to Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal:

"They're two different types (of horses). Dortmund, he's all lanky—built like a greyhound. This horse (American Pharoah)—he's more of a full package. Like Shaq and Kobe Bryant, you know? But they're both really good horses, and we don't know how good they really are."

Based on Baffert's words, American Pharoah sounds like the all-world talent coming out of college who is learning to put all of those skills together. His recent race results suggest something has started to click, likely thanks in large part to Espinoza's work. 

The only minor concern for American Pharoah going through three races in the span of five weeks is injury. He was forced to withdraw from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November due to foot problems. The three-year-old didn't get a great draw, originally at post 18 but getting to move one spot closer when Stanford withdrew. 

Even though American Pharoah's injury was six months ago and there hasn't been any evidence of lingering problems, it's one of those things that can stick in your craw with so many races, all of them longer than what he's run to this point, in short succession. 

Materiality (Jockey: Javier Castellano)

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Materiality isn't immediately jumping off the page at anyone who's looking for a potential Triple Crown winner, mostly due to an unfavorable draw that starts close to the rail, but going back to the bloodlines, he's a fantastic option in that regard. Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes and came in third at the Kentucky Derby in 2005, is his sire. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher told Lintner that Materiality has responded well to all the challenges put in front of him so far:

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It's pretty rare that you see a horse go from a six-furlong maiden race to a 1 1/8-mile situation. It's not something that we'd planned on months ago. It just sort of gelled at the right time. Honestly, I wasn't really expecting the Islamorada to even be an option. When it came out in the condition book and he breezed well, we decided to go ahead and try it. I was very concerned about the 1 1/8-mile distance. When he handled that so well, it changed everything, really. It basically put him in a position to come back in the Florida Derby, so it just sort of came together at the right time.

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There's always a danger that a young, untested horse will take on too much too soon. He's only got two races under his belt over one mile, but he has taken care of business in both, most recently the Florida Derby. That race at Gulfstream Park has produced recent Kentucky Derby winners in Orb (2013) and Big Brown (2008). 

Jockey Javier Castellano doesn't have a long track record of success in Triple Crown races, boasting one victory at the 2006 Preakness Stakes with Bernardini, but his overall resume is as good as anyone riding at Churchill Downs. 

Castellano won his 4,000th career race earlier this year and has won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey each of the past two years. He's not going to have any issues taking control of Materiality. 

Don't underestimate the fresh legs Materiality brings to the table with just three races under his belt, pulling off an upset of Upstart at the Florida Derby and having the same DNA as one of the best horses in recent memory.