Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Final Projections for Race-Day Favorites
A horse will transform into a legend in two heart-pounding minutes at Churchill Downs Saturday.
That is the beauty of the Kentucky Derby.
While horse racing fans will undoubtedly look ahead to a potential Triple Crown run the second the Kentucky Derby ends, it is worth taking two minutes to smell the Run for the Roses Saturday. It is one of the most notable events on the sports calendar and brings an element of prestige that few other competitions can match.
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With that in mind, here is a look at the odds for the Kentucky Derby contenders, per Odds Shark (as of May 1), as well as the projected finish for the favorites.
| 1 | 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 |
| 2 | 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 33-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 12-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | SCR | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 18-5 |
| 9 | 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | Stanford | Florent Geroux | SCR | ||
| 12 | International Star | Miguel Mena | SCR | ||
| 13 | 11 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 |
| 14 | 12 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 40-1 |
| 15 | 13 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 |
| 16 | 14 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 17 | 15 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 18 | 16 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 |
| 19 | 17 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 25-1 |
| 20 | 18 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 |
| 21 | 19 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nick Zito | 66-1 |
| 1 | American Pharoah |
| 2 | Dortmund |
| 3 | Carpe Diem |
Predicted Winner: American Pharoah
Dortmund is undefeated, but American Pharoah turned enough heads at the Arkansas Derby to establish himself as the favorite at Churchill Downs.
It wasn’t just that American Pharoah won in Arkansas but the way he did it that made the performance notable. He demolished the competition by a full eight lengths after taking an early lead and turning on the jets.
It is important to point out that the Arkansas Derby wasn’t exactly loaded with top-notch competition, but he was just so dominant that the result cannot be ignored.
It’s not as if the Arkansas Derby was American Pharoah’s first impressive performance either. He won the Rebel at Oaklawn Park in March and the FrontRunner at Santa Anita Park in September and gradually resembled a Kentucky Derby favorite with every passing race.
Richard Rosenblatt of The Associated Press (via Yahoo News) did point out an important wild-card factor when considering American Pharoah’s Derby chances: “Of course, since American Pharoah has won so easily—without breaking a sweat, really—there's no telling what he's capable of if seriously challenged. Then again, he could simply blow away the competition on the first Saturday in May.”
Don’t be surprised when American Pharoah does exactly what he is known for and jumps out to that early lead and controls the pace until the end. He may even blow away the field in the process.
American Pharoah also boasts a Kentucky Derby-type of pedigree as the son of 2009 Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile. What’s more, American Pharoah is the grandson of Empire Maker, who won the 2003 Belmont and was a Derby runner-up, and the great-grandson of 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled.
In addition to the pedigree, American Pharoah also has experienced jockey Victor Espinoza on his side.
Espinoza led California Chrome to titles in last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness and did the same with War Emblem in 2002. Espinoza will not be intimidated by the stage and has critical experience as the jockey on the favored horse at Churchill Downs.
Espinoza discussed what lies ahead, per Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal: "I'm excited. It's the first time I've gone into it in back-to-back years with horses like this. I think I'm even more excited this year. Bob (Baffert) and I go way back. He's always been a help to me."
Throw in trainer Bob Baffert, who won back-to-back Kentucky Derbys in 1997 and 1998 and also in 2002, and there is little reason to doubt American Pharoah. Baffert has also trained five Preakness winners and won the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer three different times.
While Baffert would clearly enjoy seeing American Pharoah take home the Run for the Roses, he is also the trainer for contender Dortmund. It is hard to paint Baffert as a distinct advantage for American Pharoah since the top contender is also in Baffert’s stable, but it gives the favorite a boost over the rest of the field.
Ultimately, American Pharoah boasts the resume, pedigree and jockey combination necessary to win on horse racing’s biggest stage.
He will take the early lead like he so often does and ride that edge to another clear victory. While the No. 18 post pits American Pharoah on the outside, it also allows for more room out of the gates, which is where this horse thrives.
American Pharoah is the perfect front-runner because of his ability to cut off the lanes for those behind him and steamroll to the finish line. The Arkansas Derby was the closest thing to foreshadowing that fans will find in horse racing, and American Pharoah made a ringing statement.
Look for an even louder one Saturday.
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