UFC 186 Fight Card: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC 186 has had its troubles, but it finally hits Montreal this weekend.
Headlining the action will be a flyweight title tilt between champion Demetrious Johnson and No. 7-ranked contender Kyoji Horiguchi.
Also on the card will be the return of Quinton Jackson. Rampage was previously pulled from the card after Bellator was awarded an injunction, but a judge overturned that decision this week.
Three other bouts line the main card in this Saturday's pay-per-view. It will not be the most stacked action with heavy implications, but the bouts could deliver some exciting fights.
The main card is not a treasure trove of potential upsets for bettors to take advantage of, but there may still be some worthwhile action on the card. Where may you find it? That is what we will look at in this piece.
Yves Jabouin (+325) vs. Thomas Almeida (-450)
1 of 5
The opening bout of the main card will see highly regarded, undefeated prospect Thomas Almeida take on Yves Jabouin.
Almeida's steep odds are a bit of surprise with only one UFC bout to his credit, but it shows the confidence the handicappers have for him. I am not as confident.
Jabouin is a quality veteran who only has two losses at 135 pounds, and both losses came to heavy-handed strikers who were ranked in the top 10 at the time of their fights. I would not count him out of this fight in front of a friendly home crowd.
The smart pick is Almeida, but I'm going to take Jabouin in the upset. His striking will score enough points to sway the judges, and he will avoid being on the mat for too long. He will take a decision to open the card. At 3-1 odds, he is worth a small risk as well.
Prediction: Jabouin defeats Almeida by decision.
The Play: Take a small chance on Jabouin.
John Makdessi (-185) vs. Shane Campbell (+150)
2 of 5
Shane Campbell makes his UFC debut against John Makdessi. Campbell is on a three-fight win streak heading into this bout, and Makdessi is coming off a loss to Alan Patrick at UFC 169 last February.
This is a tough task for a debut. Makdessi is a quality striker who has a good track record in the Octagon. Campbell is primarily a striker as well, but he takes this fight on short notice and lacks the other tools to make him an immediate threat.
If Makdessi wants to play around on the feet for 15 minutes, he may be in trouble. Campbell has a six-inch reach advantage and can match him strike for strike. But Makdessi is a better mixed martial artist.
Campbell has a good shot at the upset, and that's why he's worth a small play here. Makdessi has never scored a takedown in the Octagon to make anyone believe he will suddenly grapple in this matchup. That could give Campbell time to find his rhythm.
I'll stick with Makdessi by decision, but Campbell is the better betting play.
Prediction: Makdessi defeats Campbell by decision.
The Play: A small play on Campbell.
Michael Bisping (-155) vs. C.B. Dollaway (+125)
3 of 5
I am a bit taken aback by how close the odds are, but maybe I shouldn't be. C.B. Dollaway has looked good in recent fights. He has excellent power in his hand, while Bisping has found it rough as of late since returning from his eye injury.
I still like The Count here.
His volume striking and pace will be big issues for Dollaway. And his takedown defense is stellar. That's another big issue for Dollaway.
At minus-155, I love Bisping. This is a great chance to get him while the odds are this low before a spike closer to fight day. Veteran bettors will probably flock to Bisping at these odds. His style gives him an edge against someone like Dollaway.
Bisping will get the finish in the third and final round. Dollaway will fade, and Bisping will keep turning up the heat with his boxing. There will be too much volume for Dollaway to handle.
Prediction: Bisping defeats Dollaway by TKO in the third round.
The Play: All-in on Bisping.
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Quinton Jackson (-310) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+240)
4 of 5
Rampage is back!
He will hear those words in the first five minutes of this fight.
Quinton Jackson returns to the UFC with a favorable matchup. Fabio Maldonado is a good boxer who loves exchanges, but that is trouble against Rampage. It is the type of fight Rampage loves to be involved in. With his raw power, he will put Maldonado down.
There is no value at the current odds unless you can find a decent prop bet for a TKO in a specific round.
If Rampage didn't show the power in his hands that we have historically seen from him, I would pick a late-round stoppage or a decision, but he is one of the hardest hitters in this division still. Maldonado cannot get hit cleanly and survive. And he will get hit cleanly in the first round.
Prediction: Jackson wins by TKO in the first round.
The Play: No value.
Demetrious Johnson (-950) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+600)
5 of 5
Much like the handicappers, I have no faith in Kyoji Horiguchi.
He is a one-dimensional fighter against quite possibly the pound-for-pound best in the game today—Demetrious Johnson.
Johnson is going to put on another clinic.
Horiguchi's best chance is landing a punch early, but even if he does, Johnson has shown remarkable ability to recover. He was tagged multiple times against a more powerful, more dynamic striker in John Dodson. It is a tough sell to suggest Horiguchi will be the one to finish Mighty Mouse.
Johnson's wrestling and submissions will come into play early. His lightning-quick shot will put Horiguchi on the canvas, and Johnson will take over quickly. He will get the finish. Look for props in this matchup as there is no value in a straight pick.
The champ reigns in dominant fashion on Saturday.
Prediction: Johnson defeats Horiguchi via submission in the second round.
The Play: No value.
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