The Biggest Question for Top College Basketball Teams in the 2015 Offseason
The college basketball offseason is almost entirely big questions, but there's one undeniably massive unknown hanging over every team that could open the season ranked in the top 20.
Now, without a doubt, the biggest question this offseason is about the five 5-star freshmen who still haven't committed. Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Thon Maker, Cheick Daillo and Malik Newman are going to significantly alter the college basketball landscape if and when they decide to announce where they'll be playing.
But that's the last you'll hear of those players in this article, because they would otherwise be the big question for more than half of these teams.
Rather, these are questions that these teams will seek to answer with the rosters as they are currently constructed. Some of these are optimistic questions. Others are pessimistic in nature. Either way, they're the X-factors that each team needs to figure out over the next six months.
Arizona Wildcats
1 of 20
Can they replace everyone?
A few of the teams on this list are losing a ridiculous amount of important players. Duke is moving on without four starters. Wisconsin will be without three starters and a fourth who would have been a starter all season if he hadn't broken his foot. Kentucky is trying to send seven players to the NBA.
Arizona is now smack dab in the middle of that boat. T.J. McConnell graduated and Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley are all leaving early for the NBA.
Those are the team's four leading scorers skipping town.
Yet, the Wildcats remain in extremely good shape.
They still have Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Gabe York, Elliott Pitts, Kaleb Tarczewski and Dusan Ristic as returning players who were part of the primary nine-man rotation last season. They're also adding Boston College transfer Ryan Anderson, 2013-14 JUCO Player of the Year Kadeem Allen and four of the 51 best freshmen in this year's class as graded by 247 Sports, including two 5-star guys—Allonzo Trier and Ray Smith.
It's going to be a much different roster than the one we got used to seeing this past season, but "different" doesn't necessarily mean "substantially worse." Arizona is still the team to beat in the Pac-12 and should be in the conversation for the No. 1 seed in the West Region for a third straight year.
Baylor Bears
2 of 20
How much more can Rico Gathers give?
Heading into last season, we were pretty excited to see what Rico Gathers could do as a junior with starter minutes. As a freshman, he averaged 13.6 points and 13.7 rebounds per 40 minutes, and he slightly increased that to 14.5 and 14.3, respectively, as a sophomore.
However, he averaged fewer than 18 minutes per game in each of those seasons, and there was at least cause for concern about the law of diminishing returns.
Those fears were put to rest, though, as he put up 15.5 points and 15.5 rebounds per 40 minutes in 29.9 minutes per game this past season. Those aren't quite the absurd numbers that Kenneth Faried posted during his years at Morehead State, but they're close.
Could he possibly become any more efficient while playing even more minutes?
If he put up 13 rebounds and 13 points per game, would it be enough for him to get in the discussion for the Wooden Award?
More importantly, would it be enough to lead Baylor back to a second consecutive No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament despite losing Kenny Chery and Royce O'Neale?
Gathers is probably the most relentless force in the game today. Let's see if the Bears can ride their horse to another great season.
Duke Blue Devils
3 of 20
Can Duke strike gold with another freshman point guard?
In three of the past five seasons, Duke's primary ball-handler has been a freshman. In 2010-11, Mike Krzyzewski had Kyrie Irving (for all of 11 games because of a toe injury). The following season, Austin Rivers led the Blue Devils to an upset loss against Lehigh. And, of course, they had Tyus Jones this past season.
Time to see what Derryck Thornton Jr. can do.
Krzyzewski pulled off quite the magic act when he got Thornton to commit and reclassify to the class of 2015. Prior to that, Duke's plans at point guard for the 2015-16 season consisted of Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard and ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Allen proved in the national championship game that he can contribute in a huge way, but neither he nor Kennard is exactly a pass-first type of player.
When we were submitting our ballots for the way-too-early top 25, Duke's ranking was one of the biggest points of contention. I had Duke in the top 10, assuming Jones would stay. Both C.J. Moore and Jason King had the Blue Devils outside the top 20, assuming Jones would go. But none of us had any inkling that Thornton was on the way.
If Thornton can be even half the player that Jones was, Duke has at least a snowball's chance of repeating as national champions. If he flops or gets injured, the Blue Devils might fail to earn a No. 3 seed or better in the NCAA tournament for just the second time since 1996.
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Gonzaga Bulldogs
4 of 20
Who replaces Kevin Pangos?
Gonzaga will probably have the best frontcourt in the entire country. For most of this past season, we propagated the Bulldogs as one of the few teams with enough strength in the paint to hang with Kentucky. Wisconsin and Duke were two other teams on that list. But the Badgers, Wildcats and Blue Devils lost the crux of their tall talent while Gonzaga gets Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski for one more season.
Who feeds them the rock, though?
Kevin Pangos is out of years of eligibility. So are Gary Bell and Byron Wesley, meaning Gonzaga will have an entirely different backcourt from yesteryear. The Bulldogs do add a 4-star point guard in Jesse Wade, but the more likely solution is someone who was already in house.
Josh Perkins played just five games before getting kicked in the jaw and missing the rest of the season, but the freshman did average 6.7 assists per 40 minutes during that limited audition. Eric McClellan could also potentially serve as the team's primary point guard.
Either way, though, it's a major step down from the veteran leadership of a guy like Pangos who was in the early conversation for the Wooden Award last season.
Fortunately, Gonzaga could theoretically put Wiltjer at point guard and still win 30 games and the WCC title.
Indiana Hoosiers
5 of 20
Will the Hoosiers lead the nation in scoring?
As of Thursday morning, there has been no definitive word on whether Yogi Ferrell or James Blackmon Jr. will be leaving for the NBA or coming back for another year. According to Justin Albers of AllHoosiers.com, the rumor currently circulating on Twitter is that Blackmon will return and Ferrell will jump to the pros.
If both of those outstanding players return, though, Indiana just might have the most unstoppable offense in the country.
The Hoosiers already ranked ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency this past season, but that was with Blackmon and Robert Johnson each playing at least 27 minutes per game as freshmen and with a 6'7" Troy Williams serving as their only legitimate offensive weapon in the paint. Now, those stud guards are one year older, and Indiana is adding a 5-star power forward in the form of Thomas Bryant.
Throw in Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Nick Zeisloft off the bench and the Hoosiers have a seven-man rotation that would be the favorite to win the Big Ten if Maryland and Michigan State weren't both expected to open the season ranked in the AP Top 10.
As was the case with Rick Barnes and Texas this past season, expectations will be extremely high for a team with a coach who lost the support of the vocal portion of his fanbase years ago. If Indiana doesn't win at least 25 games and advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2002, it could be the end of the line for Tom Crean.
Iowa State Cyclones
6 of 20
Could this finally be the year that someone finishes ahead of Kansas?
The great thing about Kansas' streak of 11 consecutive Big 12 titles is that we've been able to pencil in this debate for the past several offseasons.
Eventually, someone else has to win the Big 12. That doesn't mean it has to happen in 2015-16, but it absolutely could, because Iowa State should be one of the best teams in the country.
We have a tendency to overreact when star players return for another season, but I don't think we did that with Georges Niang. Keep in mind, Niang was named to the media's preseason All-Big 12 first team. We had him at No. 2 overall on our all-Big 12 teams in early August.
The experts from CBS Sports, the experts from NBC Sports and B/R's C.J. Moore all had Niang at No. 7 in their preseason rankings of the top 100 players. The only other unanimous top-nine player from those lists coming back this season is North Carolina's Marcus Paige.
In other words, we're talking about one of the early leading candidates for the Wooden Award coming back for one more season. It's kind of a big deal.
The Cyclones do lose Dustin Hogue and Bryce Dejean-Jones, but they'll still have an incredible starting five of Monte Morris, Naz Long, Abdel Nader, Niang and Jameel McKay with a bench of Hallice Cooke, Matt Thomas, Georgios Tsalmpouris and the impact transfer that Fred Hoiberg inevitably adds at some point in the next few months.
Never mind winning the Big 12. This team can absolutely win it all.
Kansas Jayhawks
7 of 20
Can Carlton Bragg do what Cliff Alexander could not?
Remember when Cliff Alexander was supposed to be the next big thing?
Last October, many (myself included) were comparing him to recent dominant power forwards like Jared Sullinger and Thomas Robinson and wondering whether he or Jahlil Okafor would ultimately be taken with the No. 1 overall pick this June. But after a lackluster season that ended amidst eligibility issues, Alexander might not even be taken until the second round.
In short, things deesclated in a hurry.
Now it's Carlton Bragg's time to shine for the Jayhawks, and Bill Self is obviously hopeful that this 5-star power forward will work out better than his last one.
Kansas is set up nicely for a 12th consecutive Big 12 title. Alexander and Kelly Oubre both went pro after one season, but without any noteworthy seniors on last year's roster, the Jayhawks still have a great core made up of Perry Ellis, Wayne Selden, Frank Mason, Brannen Greene and Jamari Traylor—but there's little question that their biggest weakness is at power forward.
Bragg doesn't have to be as good as Alexander was advertised to be, but if he can make a big impact, so will Kansas.
Kentucky Wildcats
8 of 20
Is Marcus Lee ready to make an impact?
John Calipari signed six 5-star freshmen in the class of 2013. Julius Randle and James Young played one season before going pro. Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison and Dakari Johnson decided to stick around for a second year before making the perhaps ill-advised decisions to go pro.
And then there's Marcus Lee.
Outside of a sudden outburst in the 2014 Elite Eight against Michigan, Lee did absolutely nothing for the final four-plus months of his freshman campaign. And he was clearly the 10th wheel in Kentucky's alleged platoon system in 2014-15, failing to play 20 minutes in any of the team's 39 games.
Lee averaged just 8.5 minutes per game over Kentucky's final 18 games. In the 11 games decided by fewer than 18 points during that stretch, he averaged 4.9 minutes per game.
But as things currently stand on Kentucky's roster, Lee is going to start at power forward with Derek Willis as his backup.
It's pretty safe to assume that Calipari will end up with at least one of the remaining four 5-star forwards that have yet to commit, but unless he signs at least three of those guys, Lee is inevitably going to play a significant number of minutes. Whether he's ready to make an impact will likely dictate how high Kentucky's ceiling could be.
Louisville Cardinals
9 of 20
Who scores for this team?
While he was part of the roster, Chris Jones averaged 13.7 points per game for Louisville last season. Terry Rozier poured in 17.1 per night, Montrezl Harrell averaged 15.7 and Wayne Blackshear tallied 11.6. They were the only Cardinals to score more than 4.1 points per game.
The other thing they have in common is that they're no longer with the team. They scored 78.0 percent of Louisville's points last season.
Worse yet, Shaqquan Aaron and Anton Gill are transferring, taking another 4.4 percent of the team's points with them.
Damion Lee announced on Twitter on Thursday morning that he'll be taking his immediately eligible talents to Louisville. While with Drexel last season, he averaged 21.4 points per game. He's a huge addition and a step in the right direction. But he's just one player.
Rick Pitino still has Quentin Snider, Chinanu Onuaku and Mangok Mathiang, but that isn't exactly a Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh type of Big Three. Louisville adds three very good freshmen in Deng Adel, Donovan Mitchell and Raymond Spalding, but it's going to take more than one transfer and a few 4-star guys to replace all that this team is losing.
I'm already on the record for saying that Louisville could miss the 2016 NCAA tournament altogether. A lot can still change between now and November and even more could happen before March, but a lot is going to have to change in order to maintain Louisville's streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 25 wins.
Maryland Terrapins
10 of 20
Is Diamond Stone the greatest name in sports history?
Easily the dumbest question on the list, but it gives us a chance to examine Maryland's case for a No. 1 seed next March.
Diamond Stone isn't quite the once-in-a-decade, can't-miss big man that Jahlil Okafor was for Duke last season, but the 5-star center doesn't need to average 20 points and 10 rebounds to be a significant upgrade for the Terrapins.
This is because Maryland's frontcourt situation last season was less than ideal.
Damonte Dodd and Michal Cekovsky played the bulk of the minutes at center, but neither one was much of a scorer or rebounder. They combined to commit 155 fouls while attempting just 153 field goals on the season. Jake Layman and Evan Smotrycz alternately served as the team's power forward, even though both of those 6'9" men preferred to spend their offensive minutes on the perimeter.
But not only are the Terrapins adding the second-best freshman center in the nation, according to 247Sports, but Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter Jr. will also be eligible after sitting out the 2014-15 season.
Last year, they cobbled together a frontcourt. Next year, it might be their biggest strength.
That's high praise, considering Maryland hit the lottery when superstar combo guard Melo Trimble decided to come back for a second season. The Terrapins should be the favorites to win the Big Ten, even though it's a daily struggle to remember they aren't in the ACC anymore. Thank heavens there's no more conference realignment this summer.
Michigan State Spartans
11 of 20
Will Tom Izzo employ John Calipari's platoon system?
Despite losing two of the best players from last year's roster (Travis Trice and Branden Dawson), Michigan State has more quality players than it could possibly need.
In the backcourt, the Spartans have Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn, Bryn Forbes, West Virginia transfer Eron Harris, Alvin Ellis, Denzel Valentine and incoming freshman Matthew McQuaid.
In the frontcourt, they have Matt Costello, Gavin Schilling, Marvin Clark, Javon Bess and incoming freshmen Caleb Swanigan and Deyonta Davis.
Add it all up and that's six guards and six big men. Sounds like a pretty good time for a platoon situation.
It would be a crime if Valentine played fewer than 30 minutes per game. However, every other player on that list is good enough to play 15 minutes, but hardly great enough to necessitate 25 minutes per game. The Spartans should run a deep rotation that stays fresh long into the season en route to a possible Big Ten and national championship.
North Carolina Tar Heels
12 of 20
(When) Will the Wainstein Report rear its ugly head?
Without question, the biggest unknown hanging over the 2015 offseason is the ramifications on North Carolina from the Wainstein Report.
(In case you've forgotten, the long and short of that report is that dozens of athletes in several sports over multiple years were taking "paper classes" and making a mockery of the 'student' part of student-athlete.)
If nothing happens and everyone comes back and the Tar Heels are eligible for postseason play, they have to be considered one of the primary candidates to win the 2016 NCAA tournament.
But what if they "pull a Syracuse" and self-impose a postseason ban in the middle of the season in hopes of lessening the impact of the impending sanctions from the NCAA?
What if they decide right before the season to self-impose that ban and key players choose to transfer?
What if the penalties come down tomorrow and Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Justin Jackson all decide to go pro rather than playing an unpaid season that couldn't possibly result in a national championship?
Truly, you can't overstate how much of an impact this non-basketball decision is going to have on the national landscape of the basketball season.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
13 of 20
Can Terry Henderson be "the guy?"
If everyone had come back for another year, North Carolina State could have legitimately contended for the 2016 ACC championship. The only noteworthy player the Wolfpack were required to carry on without was Ralston Turner, and as we detailed last week, Terry Henderson might actually be an upgrade on Turner.
But then Kyle Washington (6.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) decided to transfer and Trevor Lacey (15.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.5 APG) decided to forgo his senior year and declare for the NBA draft. All of a sudden, NC State went from a team returning almost everyone to a situation in which Cat Barber is the only top-four scorer still on the roster.
The Wolfpack will be fine in the post. They still have BeeJay Anya and Lennard Freeman and the 2014 freshman class of Abdul-Malik Abu, Caleb Martin and Cody Martin are more than capable of carrying the load.
But they desperately need Henderson to be a primary scorer in the backcourt alongside Barber. Henderson is a good enough shooter to make it happen, but we'll see if he actually does.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
14 of 20
Is there life after Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton?
Notre Dame still has some serious talent on the roster. Demetrius Jackson played extremely well as a sophomore, and Steve Vasturia was no slouch of a three-point assassin either. A frontcourt consisting of Zach Auguste, Bonzie Colson and V.J. Beachem will be among the best in the ACC, if not the country.
But the Fighting Irish don't have nearly the same luster without their dynamic backcourt duo.
Jerian Grant led the team in points, assists and steals. Pat Connaughton was the best rebounder and the most lethal three-point shooter. They each averaged more than 35.5 minutes per game, because the Fighting Irish simply couldn't function without them.
Notre Dame isn't hopelessly addicted to a guard-heavy rotation, though. In fact, Notre Dame regularly used to be led by power forwards like Luke Harangody and Jack Cooley and was still one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Mike Brey finds a way to get the most out of his roster.
He'll just have to search a little more than usual this season.
Oklahoma Sooners
15 of 20
Will one of the options at power forward pan out?
At the original time of publishing, our big question for Oklahoma was "What will Buddy Hield decide to do?" But with his announcement on Friday morning that he will return to Oklahoma to defend his Big 12 Player of the Year crown, the big unknown for the Sooners turns from the backcourt to the frontcourt for the second straight offseason.
If you'll recall, we couldn't have any conversation about Oklahoma last summer without the TaShawn Thomas caveat. It wasn't until after the regular season began that we finally learned that he would be eligible to play, and it instantly made Oklahoma one of the 10-15 best teams in the country.
But Oklahoma only got one season out of Thomas before he graduated, and now it's looking for answers at power forward once again.
Hield is an outstanding shooting guard. Ryan Spangler is a double-double machine at center. Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins are great sidekicks to Hield in the backcourt. That's four out of five spots in the starting lineup shored up nicely.
Figure out a solution at power forward, and the Sooners will be a top-10 team.
They certainly have quality options. Khadeem Lattin had a pretty respectable freshman season, given his limited playing time. Dante Buford and Akolda Manyang are huge additions that could have an immediate impact. However, not one of them is yet the surefire starter that Thomas was. If one of them can get to that point, look out for Oklahoma.
Texas Longhorns
16 of 20
What will Shaka Smart do with this roster?
As far as steal percentage is considered, Texas and VCU couldn't be much more night and day.
VCU ranked third in the nation, recording a steal on 14.0 percent of defensive possessions. Texas ranked 347th, tallying a steal on just 5.9 percent of defensive possessions.
Will Shaka Smart play to the strengths of this roster by focusing more on contesting shots in the half-court game or stick with what he knows best by employing his HAVOC defense?
The Longhorns are definitely deep enough and talented enough to pull it off, but is that really Smart's preferred defensive strategy or just something that he used to gain an edge at a school that wasn't big enough to draw the type of talent he'll absolutely be able to get at Texas?
Texas is one of the biggest wild cards heading into the 2015-16 season. If Smart is really one of the best coaches of this generation and if Rick Barnes really deserved to be fired long, long ago, Texas should immediately become one of the seven or eight best teams in the nation.
We have little doubt that both Smart and Texas made the right move and that the Longhorns will quickly become an annual contender once again. It's just a question of whether it happens this year or a couple years from now.
Villanova Wildcats
17 of 20
Will the Wildcats break the record for made three-pointers in a season?
According to the NCAA record books, Duggar Baucom's VMI Keydets rank both first and second on the list of team three-point field goals in a season. They made 442 triples in 2007 and 438 in 2009. Next on the list was Duke in 2000-01 with 407 of them. Those are the only teams with more than 375 made three-pointers in a season.
Relevance, your honor?
With JayVaughn Pinkston out of the picture, Villanova's lineup will most regularly consist of Daniel Ochefu at center and four other players with significant three-point range. Unless Darryl Reynolds really blossoms into a stud as a junior, Kris Jenkins figures to get the bulk of the team's minutes at the 4, and he averaged 7.7 three-point attempts per 40 minutes last season, rarely venturing inside the arc for his buckets.
On the wings, Josh Hart, Ryan Arcidiacono, Phil Booth and incoming studs Jalen Brunson and Donte Divincenzo all have plenty of three-point range.
Even with Pinkston playing 933 minutes without making a three-pointer, Villanova averaged 9.1 made triples per game in 2014-15. Kick that up a notch to 10.5 while advancing to the Final Four and the Wildcats would bypass the Blue Devils for third place on the all-time list.
Virginia Cavaliers
18 of 20
Who steps up on offense without Justin Anderson?
In the "way too early" top 25s that every outlet under the sun posts at the moment the national championship game ends, Virginia was unanimously a top-five team. With so much uncertainty surrounding Arizona, Kentucky and North Carolina, both Sporting News and Gary Parrish of CBS Sports were among those that had Virginia listed at No. 1.
But then Justin Anderson decided to declare for the NBA draft and the Cavaliers started to plummet. Parrish updated his rankings one week later and had dropped Virginia to No. 7.
And why not? Tony Bennett's offense was pretty pedestrian for the month of the season played without Anderson on the court.
The Cavaliers will figure something out. More minutes and touches for Anthony Gill can't possibly be a bad thing, and Marial Shayok had a strong enough freshman season to justify believing that he could make a huge impact with starter minutes.
The fact remains, though, that the Wahoos aren't nearly as formidable without Anderson.
A secondary but equally important question for Virginia is what kind of changes might be enacted when the rules committee meets from May 13-15? When people griped about the slow pace of basketball this past season, Virginia was almost always the first team mentioned and would likely be the one most negatively impacted by a more uptempo game.
Without Anderson and without as much control on defense, Bennett would really have to work to defend the National Coach of the Year award that he received from some outlets.
Wichita State Shockers
19 of 20
Who plays in the paint?
Previously on this list, we noted that Gonzaga has one of the most talented frontcourts in the country but ha a ton of question marks in the backcourt.
For Wichita State, it's the exact opposite.
Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are incredibly talented scorers, defenders and distributors. Evan Wessel is an outstanding glue guy. Kansas transfer Conner Frankamp should be able to make a significant, immediate impact.
Those are all guards, though.
Without question, Darius Carter was Wichita State's best interior player last season, but he graduates this summer. Is Rashard Kelly or Shaquille Morris ready for starter minutes at power forward? Can Tom "Bush" Wamukota or Rauno Nurger blossom into a regular contributor at center after doing next to nothing this past season?
Wichita State enters the 2015-16 season much like Indiana entered the 2014-15 season. Because of their great guards, the Shockers will be capable of outscoring just about any team when they're hot. However, they'll have their hands full with teams willing and able to feed the post on a regular basis.
Wisconsin Badgers
20 of 20
Can Bo Ryan cement his legacy as an outstanding coach?
No more Frank Kaminsky. No more Sam Dekker. Traevon Jackson and Josh Gasser are out of the picture too. Even Duje Dukan is out of years of eligibility.
It's fun to believe that great coaches can lose four starters and just continue winning like nothing ever happened, but it doesn't work that way.
Florida lost four starters and went from the No. 1 overall seed in the 2014 NCAA tournament to a team that didn't even get invited to the NIT. Michigan lost three starters and one would-have-been-starter-if-healthy in Mitch McGary and went from a No. 2 seed to also missing the NIT. Syracuse self-imposed a postseason ban, but the Orange weren't making the tournament anyway after losing three crucial starters from last year's No. 3 seed roster.
And how did Creighton do this year after losing the 2014 Wooden Award winner and three of his sidekicks? Winning percentage dropped by about 350 points, right?
Bo Ryan has a couple of 4-star guys signed for next season, but the Badgers have to replace an awful lot of production with little more than Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig leading the way.
If Wisconsin even makes the tournament next March, it will be an impressive feat and a testament to the work that Ryan has done over the past two decades. If the Badgers return to the Final Four for a third straight year, Ryan just might be have to be declared the greatest coaching mastermind in the game today.
Statistics on the following slides courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.com. Early entry draft decisions according to DraftExpress.com. Transfer decisions according to ESPN's Jeff Goodman.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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