Winners and Losers of Tim Tebow Signing with the Philadelphia Eagles

Tim Tebow has set the sports world abuzz once again, signing an unexpected one-year contract with Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles. Tebow, a former Heisman Trophy winner and first-round draft pick of the Denver Broncos, has not played in an NFL game since 2012.

The 27-year-old turned heads in 2011, when he led Denver to a series of clutch victories (including a first-round playoff victory over the Steelers, in which Tebow threw an 80-yard game winning touchdown). But after struggling as quarterback for the New York Jets, Tebow was cut by the New England Patriots in 2013. When he agreed to work as a television analyst for ESPN's SEC Network, few expected a return to football.

So what are the implications of Tebow's new contract? In the coming slides, I rank the the three biggest winners and three biggest losers of his new deal.

Winner No. 1: The National Football League

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NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell

To be absurdly understated, the past two years have not been good for the NFL's public image. Concussions, domestic and sexual violence, homicide, DUIs, drug charges—the National Football League is drowning in a flood of bad press. The game of football in general has come into question, and even President Obama has expressed concern over the game's safety. 

Tebow's return should provide a welcome distraction. For one thing, the level of media hype Tebow receives has arguably never aligned with his on-field production, meaning that even if he struggles in Philly, there will be plenty of press attention. His combination of collegiate success, running ability and well-chronicled Christian faith has made him a media maelstrom wherever he goes.

And for another, despite all the attention, Tebow is almost never in the headlines for the wrong reasons. Usually, if someone is publicly criticizing Tim Tebow, it's for his football performance—not the sort of off-field behavior that has plagued the NFL in recent years. Plus, media distractibility aside, Tebow's story is a compelling one for many fans. His return is a win for the NFL. 

Winner No. 2: Tim Tebow

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Tim Tebow

Tebow, of course, is the most obvious winner of all. In an 18-month span from 2011 to 2013, Tebow left the Broncos, signed with the Jets, left the Jets and signed with New England, before being cut in December of 2013. He hasn't been on an NFL roster since then, and he hasn't played an NFL game since 2012.

When New England cut Tebow in 2013, he signed a multiyear contract as a TV analyst, with ESPN’s SEC Network. At the time, plenty of pundits thought his career had probably come to a close. But he worked on his throwing motion, he didn't quit and today, he’s back in the league. It has to feel good.

NFL teams trim their rosters to 53 players before the season, and Tebow is far from a lock to make the cut. And even if he does make the team, there’s no guarantee that he’ll perform well or even play. But one way or another, he was a TV analyst yesterday and an NFL player today. That’s a win for Tim Tebow.

Winner No. 3: Chip Kelly

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Philadelphia Head Coach Chip Kelly

Eagles head coach Chip Kelly has a well-known and well-deserved reputation for innovation. His penchant for the unorthodox and willing-to-try-anything style (including the Eagles' frenetic offensive pace) make him arguably the NFL's most creative coach. By signing Tebow, Kelly has A) solidified that reputation and B) given himself an important opportunity. 

Tebow is experienced running a zone-read offense. And in the past two seasons, the Eagles have run a zone-read 514 times—235 attempts more than the next team, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Plus, if the NFL moves forward with potential changes to PATs and two-point conversions, Tebow's success in short-yardage situations (4-4 on goal line rushes for touchdowns in his career) could present a useful weapon for Kelly and the Eagles. 

Grantland's Bill Barnwell covered this earlier today, but the reality is that Chip Kelly has a lot riding on this move. If the Eagles cut Tebow before the season and then win 12 games, nobody will remember his signing. If the Eagles keep Tebow and Kelly somehow turns him into a serviceable NFL player—let alone a viable starting quarterback—it will be viewed as total vindication of Kelly's genius. 

Loser No. 1: Chip Kelly

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Chip Kelly

Our sole repeat appearance! As I said, Kelly has given himself a tremendous opportunity to prove his genius once again. But there's a fine line between "opportunity" and "risk," and that line will determine whether Kelly is a winner or loser of the Tebow signing. Consider what Kelly's done this offseason:

He traded LeSean McCoy, the team's best player and arguably the league's best running back. He traded the team's starting quarterback, Nick Foles, for another quarterback, Sam Bradford, who has never won more than seven games in a single NFL season (and has battled injury for the past two years). The team's top receiver last year, Jeremy Maclin, signed a five-year contract in Kansas City. And Kelly replaced that crop of talent with DeMarco Murray, Bradford, Kiki Alonso and...Tim Tebow?

Murray could hypothetically replicate McCoy's production. And Alonso, when healthy, has the potential to be a defensive star. But Bradford remains a huge question mark, and the odds of Tebow becoming a viable starter are slim at best. If Murray fails to live up to the hype, or if Alonso underperforms (after tearing his ACL last summer), it will be clear that Kelly's gambles are far from reliable. That would put a big, big hole in Kelly's NFL future and reputation. 

Loser No. 2: Marcus Mariota

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Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, with former coach Kelly

Mariota, one of the consensus top two quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft, has expressed several times that playing for Kelly (his former college coach at Oregon) would be a welcome opportunity. But that possibility—which was somewhat unlikely in the first place—appears to be growing ever less probable.

The Eagles now have five signal-callers on their roster, and while none of them are clear-cut starting-caliber quarterbacks, it would seem unproductive for the Eagles to jump through all sorts of hoops to grab the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft. Anything could happen down the road, but it seems fair to posit that Philadelphia will not select a QB in the draft. 

Mariota, of course, will be fine—he’s still going to be drafted, probably by the New York Jets—but he may have to resign himself to the fact that for now, playing for Kelly is off the table.   

Loser No. 3: Optimistic Eagles Fans

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Former Jets' QB Mark Sanchez

Kelly arrived in Philadelphia with plenty of fanfare, and he has not been unsuccessful. He's 20-12 in his career, the Eagles made the playoffs in his first season as head coach and many of his bag-of-tricks tactics have worked in the NFL. Coaches around the league are studying Kelly and the Eagles. 

But this is probably not the situation Eagles fans envisioned when Kelly joined the franchise in 2013. Right now, the two front-runners for the Eagles’ starting QB job are Mark Sanchez (of butt-fumble fame) and Sam Bradford. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bradford, Sanchez and Tebow are three of the five worst quarterbacks in the league since 2010 (by QBR).

It’s difficult for Philly fans to be excited when their team missed the playoffs last year, lost arguably its three best offensive players and doesn’t have a quarterback. Signing Tebow feels a bit like Kelly taking a swing in the dark and hoping to get lucky. And while Kelly's career is dotted with risk-taking (much of which has paid off), the Eagles may be in a worse position today than they were when he was hired.