NBA Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft, Top Storylines to Watch
All it takes is one or two special players in the NBA to take the next step. Even the mere possibility that those players are available in the upcoming draft is enough to hold onto hope for the league's most downtrodden franchises.
LeBron James and Kevin Love turned Cleveland from an afterthought to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in one season. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson took yet another step forward this year and led the Golden State Warriors from a mid-tier playoff team to the top seed in the Western Conference. James Harden carried an injury-plagued Houston Rockets to the No. 2 seed out West.
The best hope for those teams at home watching the playoffs is to land one of those future impact players in the NBA draft. With that in mind, here is a look at a complete first-round mock and some storylines to watch as the draft approaches.
*The order of the picks is courtesy of DraftExpress, as of Monday, April 27.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Mario Hezonja, G, Croatia |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Stanley Johnson, F, Arizona |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Myles Turner, C, Texas |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Montrezl Harrell, PF-C, Louisville |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
The Kentucky Players
A storyline was created the moment seven Kentucky players declared for the draft. It remains to be seen how many of them will actually hear their names called on draft day and how many will be forced to turn their attention toward free-agency ranks.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker are all virtual locks for the first round. Towns could be the top pick in the draft, and Cauley-Stein could go in the top 10.
Dakari Johnson isn’t quite the first-round guarantee that those players are, but he will likely be picked in the early second round because of his height and potential.
That leaves the Harrison brothers.
Both have NBA size at 6’6”, and they can attack the rim off the dribble. They were inconsistent shooters from deep, but Aaron Harrison proved his mettle with a number of clutch three-pointers in the 2014 NCAA tournament. Whether that translates to the next level or not remains to be seen, but both will at least get the opportunity to make a statement in Summer League play.
Interestingly, Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News believes that Booker, rather than the Harrison twins, should have stayed in school, even though he will likely be a first-round pick:
"Booker is not yet extraordinary in any NBA-level skill. Compared to many players who earn their livings as shooters, he is a good athlete. Compared to the majority of NBA wings, he is not. He has not yet learned the intricacies of how to get open; with Kentucky, it often was about him being free because defenses were occupied with the other high-level talents on the floor.
"
While DeCourcy may have a point, Booker will go in the first round and provide critical long-range shooting for a team off the bench. The same cannot necessarily be said about the Harrison brothers.
A Potential Surprise in the Top Two
Commentators and analysts debated between Towns and Duke’s Jahlil Okafor throughout the college basketball season as the future No. 1 pick, and it will carry over into the predraft process.
The underlying assumption is that one will go first overall and the other will go second, but that may not be the case. The first two picks will largely depend on which team wins the lottery and where a squad like the Philadelphia 76ers ends up in the draft process.
After all, Philadelphia already has youngsters Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel on the roster, and it wouldn’t make much sense from a positional standpoint to add another young big man to that group.
There are talented players available in D’Angelo Russell, Justise Winslow and Emmanuel Mudiay who could go in the top two to Philadelphia, or someone else, in the hope that Russell is the next Harden, Winslow is the next Kawhi Leonard or Mudiay is the next John Wall.
One NBA scout was very high on Russell in particular, per Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated: "He sees how a play is going to develop before it does. There are not many NBA point guards that can do that. It's a Chris Paul-type skill. And he has got it."
An NBA executive reportedly believes Philadelphia will pull the trigger and draft Russell, per Keith Pompey of The Inquirer: "He's the guy they want. That's the word around the league. You know the Sixers. They won't come out and say it, but he's the guy they want."
A word of warning for the readers of any reports from anonymous front office sources before the draft—every team has a vested interest in misleading the rest of the league before the draft. Russell may very well be the guy the 76ers want and ultimately pick, but don't be surprised if they are also attempting to throw their direct competition off their scent.
One thing is for sure amid any potential deception—Towns and Okafor are not locks for the first two picks.
The Chance at Overlooked Prospects Making an Impact
While most of the predraft focus will be on potential top-five picks Towns, Okafor, Mudiay, Russell and Winslow, there are bound to be some prospects who will thrive that go in the middle of the first round.
After all, names such as Jusuf Nurkic (the No. 17 pick), Mitch McGary (the No. 21 pick) and Nikola Mirotic (the No. 23 pick in the 2011 draft, but this was his first NBA season) made more of an impact this season than many earlier picks of the 2014 draft.
Michael Carter-Williams was the No. 11 pick in 2013, and he won Rookie of the Year, while No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett struggled to find his professional footing. Impact players Tony Snell went No. 20 and Mason Plumlee went No. 22 in that 2013 draft.
The recent precedent is in place for potential mid-first-round picks to make an early impact. National champion point guard Tyus Jones, matchup nightmare Sam Dekker and rebounding machine Montrezl Harrell, among others, are all viable Rookie of the Year candidates if placed in the right situation.
Don't stop paying attention to the draft after the first 10 picks.
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