Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Latest Betting Lines and Predictions

Let the over-scrutinizing begin.

The Kentucky Derby gets examined from every direction and studied like no other race on the entire calendar. The Breeders’ Cup rivals it as a spectacle but no single race gets the kind of attention levied toward the Derby.

So where do you begin to make sense of it?

Without post positions, which in a race like the Kentucky Derby greatly affect a horse’s chance at winning, the latest odds and predictions are somewhat incomplete. Even given that, we’ll still rank these horse as best we can based on their running styles and past performances.

Read on for a detailed look at the Kentucky Derby field and how they may run come May 2.

Odds come courtesy of OddsShark and are current as of April 28.

Tencendur

Current Odds: 66-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 40

Prediction: 20th

Tencendur is in way over his head. A solo winner from five lifetime starts, he punched his Derby ticket by nearly upsetting the Wood Memorial field.

He stalked the crawling pace in the Wood and put a head in front turning for home. He showed a lot of heart, but as a New York-bred he doesn’t stand much of a chance in the Derby.

Sure, Funny Cide won the Derby as a New York-bred back in 2003, but that was about as isolated a lightning strike as you’ll see in this sport.

Tencendur belongs at the New York tracks, but if you’ve got a shot at roses and you’ve got the points, why not take a crack at it?

Stanford

Current Odds: 66-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 40

Prediction: 19th

Any of these horses in the bottom half of the field could probably finish as high as 10th or as low as last. If a horse has no chance in the final quarter mile, jockeys often just jog home and save energy.

Stanford may be better suited for sprinting, though his sire, Malibu Moon, brought us the 2013 Derby winner in Orb.

In Stanford’s last two races, he set the pace and nearly upset International Star in the Louisiana Derby. That’s impressive, but if he gets into a speed duel at 10 furlongs, there’s no way he’ll be able to hang with Dortmund and American Pharoah.

Stanford won’t have the luxury of getting loose on an easy lead.

War Story

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Current Odds: 40-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 44

Prediction: 18th

War Story will do most of his running late in the race, as he did while finishing second and third in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, respectively.

Something worth noting about War Story is that he has a win over the Churchill Downs dirt. He won his maiden race in a seven-furlong sprint closing from 10 lengths off the pace to win by two- and three-quarter lengths.

Who knows? He could be a surprise closer and hit the board, or he may not like taking a mile’s worth of dirt in the face and will be eased turning for home.

With so much traffic, many of these deep closers—unless they’re Street Sense or Giacomo—just get jogged home if they don’t have a shot at a decent check.

Danzig Moon

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Current Odds: 40-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 45

Prediction: 17th

Danzig Moon did well to finish second in the Blue Grass Stakes. What really stands out isn’t that effort, but how well he’s handling the Churchill dirt during training hours.

Back on April 15, Danzig Moon whipped through five furlongs in 58 and change, the fastest of 60 recorded workouts at that distance that day.

Horses that train well over the surface tend to run very well in the afternoon. For one reason or another, the dirt can either be quicksand or a conveyor belt. In this instance, it looks like it could be a conveyor belt.

He made a big step forward in the Blue Grass, so it’ll be interesting to see how he wheels back three weeks later.

Mr. Z

Current Odds: 40-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 32

Prediction: 16th

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is back in the Derby with Mr. Z, one of the more heavily raced horses in the entire field (12).

Mr. Z has finished third in four of his last five races. Mr. Z ran a dud in the Louisiana Derby, and in a bit of desperation Lukas wheeled him back two weeks later in the Arkansas Derby to get him the points.

"That's one of the real negatives for the points system to me is, they force everybody to run when they probably wouldn't from a trainer and owner standpoint," Lukas said, pet Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal.

The only time a trainer wants to run his horse as often as Lukas ran Mr. Z is if he’s alive for the Triple Crown.

Mr. Z is a stalker, so if the pace is super hot, he’ll have a chance to close. If for whatever reason he doesn’t get over the track well, he’s not going to get too burned out on the front end.

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Current Odds: 40-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 30

Prediction: 15th

Ocho Ocho Ocho set the pace for the first time in his five-race career in the Blue Grass Stakes but ceded the lead while turning for home, eventually losing to Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon.

Red flag: Jockey Mike Smith abdicated, exit Far Right.

The Courier-Journal’s Jennie Rees wrote, “And after the San Felipe, Smith bailed to other mounts. Before Ocho Ocho Ocho was committed to the Derby, trainer Jim Cassidy suggested this was a bad year to be taking a shot. It might be Ouch Ouch Ouch in the Derby.”

That’s as much a nod to the depth of this field, but you never want to hear that from your trainer, especially if you’re the owner.

Bolo

Current Odds: 40-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 30

Prediction: 14th

Nothing stands out too much about Bolo. He has an obscure pedigree, and he hasn’t won since December.

His resume includes having shared the track with Dortmund twice and lived to race again.

Tactically, Bolo can run up the leaders in the early going. He has been behind Dortmund in both the Santa Anita Derby and the San Felipe Stakes and hung on gamely. 

Far Right

Current Odds: 33-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 62

Prediction: 13th

Far Right will be coming from far off the pace. You can imagine him running down the center of the track the way Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another or Giacomo did.

Then again, he could just flatten out while the varsity horses get serious.

But then you read something like this from trainer Ron Moquette and suddenly you’re talking yourself into Far Right.

"[Jockey] Mike Smith, right in front of my clients, he said he saw how the race was shaping up and knew this is a mile and an eighth with no speed," Moquett said about the Arkansas Derby, per The Courier-Journal. "So he said we weren't going to win that day's battle but saved some horse for the war."

That’s smart and a bit presumptuous of Smith, but he let American Pharoah win the battle in the Arkansas Derby in the hopes that he’ll have more to run at in Kentucky.

Firing Line

Current Odds: 18-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 60

Prediction: 12th

Firing Line has never finished worse than second, and two of the times he finished second were to Dortmund.

His win in the Sunland Derby was visually striking as he pulled away to win by 14 lengths. The Sunland Derby is often a very fast prep race, and Firing Line didn’t disappoint. He covered the nine furlongs in 1:47 and change.

Gary Stevens, Firing Line’s jockey, said in USA Today:

"

A total of a short nose and a long nose difference between them. I'm on a big strong colt who is very intelligent. Having been there and knowing what kind of animal it takes, he has all the tools. But so does Dortmund. I've got a lot of respect for Dortmund. He showed a ton of grit.

"

Firing Line could get hung out in a fast pace, and knowing how experienced Stevens is, he could ease him and save some energy for a try at a 14-horse field in the Preakness.

Itsaknockout

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Current Odds: 33-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 60

Prediction: 11th

Itsaknockout was waytheheckback in the Florida Derby. He finished fourth behind Materiality and Upstart, which sounds better than it is. He lost by 21 lengths.

"Doesn't do too much wrong actually, except the last race,'' Starlight Stables founder Jack Wolf said in USA Today. "Had a bad outing there, but other than that he's done most everything right.''

Given how he underperformed in the Florida Derby, that could lead to nice value at the betting window.

Itsaknockout does seem like a notch below the top contenders here in this very deep Derby field.

Keen Ice

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Current Odds: 40-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 22

Prediction: 10th

It took a late defection for Keen Ice to qualify for the Derby, but when trainer Dale Romans is involved you have to respect him.

Bob Nastanovic of The Desmoines Register wrote:

"

Keen Ice, an expected longshot, has a stamina-laden pedigree and his deep closing style in a race with a demanding pace could give him a chance. In recent years, Kentucky Derby winners Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009) charged home to win at odds of just over 50 to 1.

"

Curlin, Keen Ice’s sire, won several times at 10 furlongs, and that will be his saving grace. He has won just once in seven starts, but a significant move forward could put him in the mix.

Frosted

Current Odds: 16-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 113

Prediction: Ninth

Frosted was the surprise winner of the Wood Memorial and has the pedigree to do great things. He’s by Tapit, the 2004 Wood winner and one of the hottest sires in North America.

Frosted has shown versatility.

After breaking slowly in the Wood, Frosted was taken back and ran from much farther off the pace than normal. He ran down the pace-setting Tencendur and into the Derby.

"It might be the toughest Derby that we've had in quite a few years," trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said in Richard Rosenblatt’s Associated Press story (h/t Kentucky.com). "I feel like 10 or 12 horses can certainly win. So many of them are just so talented. It seems like one of the most talented groups of 3-year-olds that I've seen."

Frosted is in that company and could be peaking at the right time.

Materiality

Current Odds: 12-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 100

Prediction: Eighth

The Florida Derby winner is one of those newfangled unraced-at-2 horses trying to win the Kentucky Derby.

The son of Afleet Alex made his debut at Gulfstream in January and has won his three races by a combined 11 ½ lengths for trainer Todd Pletcher.

No horse has won the Derby after not racing as a 2-year-old. Can Materiality be the one? He doesn’t seem to have the foundation to withstand the rigors of the Triple Crown. Heck, who knows what the Derby will do to this horse’s psyche. It could break him.

"It's pretty rare that you see a horse go from a six-furlong maiden race to a 1 1/8-mile situation," Pletcher said in The Blood-Horse. "It's not something that we'd planned on months ago. It just sort of gelled at the right time.” 

Lightly raced horses have the benefit of being fresh, so maybe Materiality puts in a nice Derby effort, but he’d probably be better suited for one more prep and then a run at the Preakness two weeks after the Derby.

El Kabeir

Current Odds: 33-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 95

Prediction: Seventh

El Kabeir was the darling of the New York circuit throughout the winter. He won the Withers and the Gotham, so the Grade 1 Wood Memorial was met with much anticipation.

“It's exciting to go and he deserves to go,” his trainer, John Terranova, said, per The Blood-Horse's Karen Johnson. “I think this horse is going to run really well if he gets a fair trip. So far every time we've led him over there, he has given us a good effort."

El Kabeir gets the three-time Derby winning services of Calvin Borel. This isn’t scientific, but Borel is worth about five extra lengths at Churchill Downs. One thing is certain: Borel will have El Kabeir on the fence taking the shortest trip around the oval.

Upstart

Current Odds: 20-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 76

Prediction: Sixth

Upstart is a grinder.

Trained by Rick Violette, who brought a similar grinder in Samraat to the Derby a year ago, Upstart has the mettle to win this race.

His second-place finish in the Florida Derby didn’t look impressive, but the dirt at Gulfstream was playing particularly deep and slow that day. In his last workout, he ripped through five furlongs in 59.95 seconds.

“He’s push-button. He’s really a nice ride,” exercise rider Vicki King said in HorseRacingNation.com. “If he messes up, it’s the rider’s fault, because he does anything you ask him to do!”

Upstart could be a contender as well if he gets the trip.

Violette added:

"

He likes to work fast going into his races. His best races have come off fast workouts. When I toyed with that and toned it down a little bit, he didn’t run his A-race, which is kind of my program, but it was also something we’ve learned [about him] as a 2-year-old and 3-year-old. He wants to zip a little bit, and we try to keep our horses happy.

"

Disregard Upstart at your own risk.

Carpe Diem

Current Odds: 7-1

Kentucky Derby Points:

Prediction: Fifth

Carpe Diem represents one of four horses Pletcher will saddle for the Derby. This has been commonplace for the Pletcher Industrial Complex. Out of the armies of horses Pletcher has thrown at Louisville, he has managed one Derby win: Super Saver in 2010.

Carpe Diem zipped through four furlongs in 48.60 at Keeneland and appears as ready as he's going to be.

"He seemed to get over the ground really well," Pletcher said, per Lintner in the Courier-Journal. "We got fortunate with the weather; looks like most of the rain kind of went south of here. Perfect track. The track was in excellent condition. He seemed to handle it really well, finished up strongly, galloped out good."

Carpe Diem has a nice, relaxed style of running. He stalked the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and kicked clear turning for home. That’s an ideal running style for rationing energy and having enough in the tank to close out that final furlong.

Dortmund

Current Odds: 9-2

Kentucky Derby Points: 170

Prediction: Fourth

Here’s the thing with the Bob Baffert-trained Dortmund: He’s a big dude. He also won the Santa Anita Derby, a race that has produced two Kentucky Derby winners in the past three years (I’ll Have Another, 2012; California Chrome in 2014).

Pletcher said, per Beth Harris of the Associated Press (h/t DenverPost.com), “Of course, any time Bob Baffert has a couple of Kentucky Derby horses you have to give him a lot of respect. He's certainly tremendous at getting horses there and having them perform well."

Dortmund’s sire, Big Brown, won the Kentucky Derby in 2008 breaking from Post 20. Big Brown had more of a sprinter pedigree, but he was lethal at nine furlongs. Can Dortmund squeeze out 10 furlongs and win this thing on the front end? Yes, but he’ll need to relax on or near the lead to do it.

The Derby is a tough race to lead gate-to-wire, and there are some solid closers that will clip Dortmund at the end.

International Star

Current Odds: 18-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 171

Prediction: Third

Here’s the thing with International Star: The seas part for him.

Some horses are bad to the bone, and International Star gives off that vibe. Take a look at his win in the Risen Star. He wasn’t intimidated by the rail and blitzed right up the fence, and the surrounding horses got the heck out of Dodge.

The same thing happened in the Louisiana Derby, a field with greater competition. When International Star approached the leaders, they let him through.

Ed Zieralski of the U-T San Diego wrote, “He has just the right temperament and running style to handle the bumping and grinding that happens in the Derby. He also has the late burst to chase down the speed if American Pharoah, Dortmund, Firing Line and some others get caught up in a suicidal, front-running duel.”

There’s always a hot pace in the Derby, and if International Star can avoid the dreaded mid-pack traffic jam, he could be in the exotics.

Mubtaahij

Current Odds: 12-1

Kentucky Derby Points: 100

Prediction: Second

Three hundred meters from the wire in the UAE Derby, Mubtaahij looked like he was shot out of cannon. It was that impressive turn of foot that separates a contender from a pretender, and Mubtaahij is most certainly a contender.

Art Sherman, trainer to last year’s Derby winner, California Chrome, witnessed Mubtaahij romp in the UAE Derby. Sherman said, per Zieralski, “He’s a real runner and all racehorse.”

No horse has paired up winning efforts from Dubai to Louisville, so there’s that hurdle, but Mubtaahij made it look so effortless that he could be the first one.

American Pharoah

Current Odds: 9-4

Kentucky Derby Points: 160

Prediction: First

American Pharoah, the other Baffert horse getting a ton of attention, made winning the Arkansas Derby look like a two-minute lick. It looked laughably easy for the son of Pioneerof the Nile.

Still, having perhaps the best two-horse Derby tandem in the history of the race is no guarantee in a 20-horse field with 160,000 screaming fans laser-beaming their focus on the track. Jennie Rees of The Courier-Journal wrote:

"

However, Baffert well knows that having the favorite doesn't mean having the winner. He's won the Derby three times but was shut out with one of his strongest entries. That's when eventual Horse of the Year Point Given could do no better than fifth as the 9-5 favorite in 2001, with Baffert's Wood Memorial winner Congaree third. And actually, Congaree was only the third choice, behind Dollar Bill, who had been a well-beaten third in the Blue Grass and fourth in the Louisiana Derby.

"

American Pharoah has such a smooth, easy way of going, and he can sit just off the pace as he did in the Arkansas Derby. That push-button Nitro is what a horse needs in a race like the Derby—and across the Triple Crown—and that makes him, above all, the horse to beat come Saturday.