Ranking the Horses with the Best Chance at 2015 Triple Crown Glory

Affirmed.

That name may mean little, but for some Triple Crown aficionados and hopeful fans, that name represents the last Triple Crown winner. The year was 1978.

This year marks the 37th try at taking down the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes. We had a bid as recently as last year with California Chrome. We came within a few whiskers when Real Quiet got clipped at the wire in 1998. Were it not for jockeys with agendas, Smarty Jones wins the 2004 Triple Crown.

The sport hungers for a Triple Crown winner, but it serves the sport just as well to have a bid at the Triple Crown. The casual fan won’t be tuning in after the Belmont Stakes anyway, so what difference does it make to them?

For the more seasoned horse player and fan of the sport, yes, seeing the Triple Crown winner take on the late-developing three-year-olds and older horses in the preambles to the Breeders’ Cup makes for an exciting climax to a long year. But that's getting five weeks ahead of ourselves.

This year, we could be in for something special. Will one of these colts win the Triple Crown? Probably not, but by looking at pedigree, running style and relative fatigue, we can whittle down the field to a few contenders worthy of racing’s greatest honor.

Read on to see who could become the 12th horse to win the coveted—and increasingly elusive—Triple Crown.

4. Materiality

Pedigree

Materiality, for all his inexperience, has a sire who nearly won the Triple Crown. People forget that Afleet Alex came within one length of winning the Triple Crown in 2005. That one-length loss just happened to be in the Derby when Giacomo surged past in the final strides.

Afleet Alex won the Preakness in dramatic fashion and then destroyed the field in the Belmont Stakes.

Out of all the Triple Crown beats over the years, Afleet Alex's could be the toughest since Real Quiet, but no one talks about it since he lost the first leg and not the third.

Running Style

Materiality, like a lot of Todd Pletcher horses, has a stalking running style. There’s a good chance he’ll be forwardly placed in the Derby and all of his races from here on out. He’s never been farther than one length back at first call.

Wear and Tear

Materiality has raced just three times in his career and none as a two-year-old. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without a two-year-old foundation.

The silver lining is he comes in about as fresh as a horse can. There’s no question that this horse is talented. He went from breaking his maiden in a six-furlong sprint in January to holding off Upstart in the nine-furlong Florida Derby just two months later.

Triple Crown Chances

None, and here’s why: If he doesn’t win the Derby, which history suggests he won’t, Pletcher won’t run this colt back in two weeks.

Pletcher rarely wheels a Derby horse back in the Preakness. He does wheel them back five weeks later in the Belmont Stakes. Old-school trainers like D. Wayne Lukas often do enter them in the Preakness for kicks, but Pletcher bypasses the Preakness more often than not. It worked for Lukas in 2013 with Oxbow.

There are a lot of unknowns with Materiality. If he doesn’t get a nice trip, a race like the Derby could break his spirit. With the Derby being just his fourth career race, if things don’t go well, he may be relegated to the ranks of one-turn milers.

3. Dortmund

Pedigree

The big chestnut colt is sired by 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, a horse so talented he became the first horse to win the Derby from Post 20 since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

Big Brown went on to win the Preakness in a virtual walkover, but couldn’t win the Belmont Stakes. In fact, he was eased after he was stepped on, jarred a shoe loose and endured a tough trip on a day that was sauna-hot.

Running Style

He’ll be the speed, but he has proved that he can win from just off the pace. In his six wins from six starts, he was in front at the first call in his last three graded stakes races.

Wear and Tear

Six races aren’t too many, but he has run in three graded stakes this year, with each more impressive than the last. He won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by 4 1/4 lengths while setting sizzling fractions.

The half-mile went in at 46 and 1/4 seconds and he still kicked clear. Santa Anita tends to be fast in the afternoon, so the real question becomes: Was that effort too much heading into Kentucky?

Triple Crown Chances

Speed horses don’t fare well in these types of routes. War Emblem (also trained by Bob Baffert) won the Derby on the lead in 2002, but most horses track the leaders or come from way off the pace.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Dortmund takes the lead and can comfortably relax long enough to win one of these races, let alone the entire trifecta.

As far as talent goes, he’s as good as they come, but all three in five weeks is asking far too much of this Big Brown colt.

2. Mubtaahij

Pedigree

Mubtaahij is an Irish-bred horse by Dubawi, a horse who won or placed in several prestigious European races.

Mubtaahij’s great grandsire, Seeking the Gold, finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Travers Stakes, both at 10 furlongs.

Running Style

After watching his UAE Derby, it’s hard to believe this horse won’t be in the thick of the Kentucky Derby stretch run. People will point to the subpar horses he beat, but that turn of foot from 300 meters out was scary explosive.

He broke from Post 1 in Dubai and settled in behind the leaders. When he got his cue, he cleared the pace-setters in two bounds.

Wear and Tear

He’s a very experienced horse and heavily raced. Some respond well; others get sluggish. He’s of the former. He has four races under his belt in 2015 and has already won twice at distances longer than 1 1/4 miles.

The real problem is the travel. He shipped from Dubai to Chicago for quarantining and goes from there to Louisville.

Triple Crown Chances

If he handles the excessive traveling, his chances are solid to win the Triple Crown.

Because he’s from overseas, he’s a bit of a challenge for Americans to completely warm up to. He’s Irish-bred with a Belgian jockey, a South African trainer and is owned by a sheik.

A win in the Kentucky Derby—and a run at the Triple Crown—could spell great things for the thoroughbred breed. Mubtaahij doesn’t run on Lasix, a diuretic used to stop pulmonary bleeding. Many “nonbleeders” use it just because everyone else is using it.

North America is the only major racing jurisdiction that still allows the use of Lasix, and some argue it has set the breed back several generations. Trainer Michael de Kock told Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse:

"

It's purely about bleeding. As I understand things, Lasix is there to assist known bleeders and there has not even been a suspicion of this horse ever bleeding. I'm not sure what he'll do if given Lasix, and because he's never bled, I'm not prepared to gamble on his performance being altered with Lasix.

"

Mubtaahij has a great balance of experience and proven success at the distances.

1. American Pharoah

Pedigree

He’s sired by Pioneerof the Nile, the 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up. Were it not for a spirited and fearless ride up the fence by Calvin Borel and Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile could have been the Derby winner.

American Pharoah’s grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont Stakes in 2003. Lots of endurance in that top-side pedigree.

Running Style

He’s a speed horse that doesn’t need the lead. He has the versatility to get himself out of traffic. The way this horse runs is so smooth, without a wasted motion.

John Pricci of HorseRaceInsider.com wrote:

"

It is almost universally acknowledged by anyone who has seen him race that American Pharoah could be a “freak,” a crude term for the highest accolade in this sport of paupers and kings.

Many observers believe they saw what they needed to when American Pharoah rated comfortably in second before effortlessly—no hyperbole, just fact—sweeping to command and blowing the Arkansas Derby wide open at [the head of the stretch].

"

He won three graded stakes races by leading the field but was content to let a rabbit blast through the early fractions in the Arkansas Derby. American Pharoah just relaxed beneath jockey Victor Espinoza. He ran away from them down the stretch in a hand ride.

Wear and Tear

He’s raced just five times and only two times this year. He’s very fresh, and he just turned in a stylish 58-second five-furlong breeze in his final drill before the Derby. The way he’s racing and the way he’s training spell not just Derby hopeful, but Triple Crown hopeful.

Triple Crown Chances

Very good. Optimism when it comes to something so rare and so grueling is a fool’s game, but American Pharoah has all the tools: the pedigree, the running style, racing sparingly.

On top of that, he’s got a jockey who has ridden two horses into the Belmont Stakes with a chance to win the Triple Crown (War Emblem in 2002 and California Chrome in 2014).

American Pharoah is an exceptional horse who brings goose bumps to the skin just thinking about his potential to snap this 37-year drought.