Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Betting Guide to Favorites and Dark Horses

The Kentucky Derby is a like a prism. Shine light through it and it fractures into all these separate striations. There’s the hats, the juleps, the seersucker, the roses, the horses and, of course, the gambling.

An 18-horse field, albeit a technical nightmare for horsemen to navigate, is the best betting race of the year because of all the possibilities. Also because the field is so big it often takes some of the best horses on paper out of their game, thus opening the door for some scrapper to sneak up the fence and win the thing.

That happened in 2005 when Giacomo (50-1) and Closing Argument (72-1) finished one-two.

You can get as complicated as you’d like when betting the Derby, or you can be as simple as possible with straight win bets on just a few horses.

Let’s get down to basics and also throw in a little formula to help you figure out the cost of your exotics tickets should you be so bold.

The Derby comes around just once per year so don’t mess around.

Betting 100: The Basics

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

You don’t jump into advanced calculus without first learning some algebra. So do your tellers a favor and learn the script. Tell him or her:

1. Track
2. Race
3. Dollar Amount
4. Type of Bet
5. Number of the horse

For example, “Churchill Downs, Race 11, five dollars to win on the 18.”

Don’t say the horse’s name. Just don’t.

Win

Placing this bet means you want that horse to win and you only get paid if he wins, Captain Obvious.

Place

The horse must finish second or higher for you to cash a ticket. You get paid the "place" price even he wins.

Show

The horse must finish first, second or third. You get paid the "show" price even if he wins.

And one more thing…

If you win—and that’s a big "if" (speaking from experience here)—don’t run up to the teller asking to cash your ticket. Wait until the race is official and then go cash your ticket. You'll look like a first-rate amateur if you don't.

Betting 101: The Exotics

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Here’s how the big dogs start making their coin.

Say you love American Pharoah, who sits at 5-2 on the morning line. To get the most out of him you can single him on top in exactas, trifectas and superfectas and have him umbrella a bunch of other horses underneath with a longer shot at winning.

First…

Exacta

You picking the first- and second-place horses in order. You can box two horses in an exacta, and they can finish in any order so long as it is one-two. Naturally, the exacta box is more expensive because it is, at minimum, two bets on one ticket.

Trifecta

You pick the horses finishing one, two and three. Again, boxing this means the three horses (or more) can finish in any order so long as they finish inside the top three.

Superfecta

This is bananas: You pick the horses finishing one, two, three and four. The same rules apply for boxing them.

Cost of Boxing

Here’s a tidbit you won’t find many places, and it’ll keep you from getting too overzealous. That way when you go to the betting window you won’t get smacked across the cheek with $128 betting ticket that you’ll humbly and embarrassingly decline.

Here it goes with the simplest bet: the exacta box.

[(Total horses bet) x (total horses bet - 1)] x dollar amount.

If you want to exacta box three horses for a $2 bet, this is what it would look like:

[Three x (three - 1)] x $2 = $12 for the bet.

For a trifecta box, you add one more set of figures and subtract two from the total horses bet:

[Three x (three - 1) x (three - 2)] x $2 = $12.

For a superfecta box, it looks like this:

[Four x (four - 1) x (four - 2) x (four - three)] x $2 = $24.

You can start to see how pricing escalates with how many horses you choose to box. Pick wisely and wipe that mathematical cold sweat off your face.

Betting 301: The Multi-Race Wager

Garry Jones/Associated Press

As if one race wasn’t enough to handicap, there’s wagering that covers multiple races. These are far easier to calculate.

You may see that there are “rolling Daily Doubles” or “rolling Pick 3s.” All that means is that you can start a Daily Double or a Pick 3 on any race.

Here’s a list of the wagering schedule for Derby Day.

Daily Double (Rolling)

Pick the winner in two consecutive races.

You may hear people say, “Daily Double starting with Race 1. Single the three in the first with the five, eight, nine in the second.”

Pick 3 (Rolling)

Pick the winner in three straight races.

Pick 4 (Start on Races 2, 4 and 8)

Sensing a pattern? Pick the winner in four straight races.

Pick 5 (Starts on Race 7)

You get the idea.

Pick 6 (Starts on Race 6)

The holy grail of handicapping. Hitting a Pick 6 takes skill and, more often than not, quite a bit of money to cover your bases. Read Steven Crist’s Exotic Betting for a great trip down the handicapping rabbit hole.

What’s the Cost?

For a Pick 3, it’s the (Total number of horses bet) x (total number of horses bet) x (total number horses bet) x dollar amount.

For every race, just keep multiplying out the total number for that race.

A Pick 6 can be as low as $2 or as high as several thousand.

Dark-Horse Contender: Mubtaahij

What to make of the UAE Derby winner? He was smashing in his win at Meydan Racecourse, but horses that ship from Florida have a hard enough time winning the Derby, let alone the United Arab Emirates.

Still, Mubtaahij showed a stylish turn of foot that makes him dangerous to win at a long price. Who better to turn to than The Washington Post’s Andrew Beyer? He doesn’t think he’ll win, and if you want to get into the weeds with his piece, by all means. 

Beyer figured Mubtaahij earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, something that’s below the major contenders in this race and far slower than Prince Bishop, who won the Dubai World Cup on the same card.

Beyer wrote, “Give or take a point or two, the figure of 112 is right for Prince Bishop. And because Mubtaahij was 15 points slower, his winning figure was 97. And that is why Mubtaahij is unlikely to be draped with roses Saturday.”

At the end of the UAE Derby, Mubtaahij wasn’t even asked by his jockey to run hard, so naturally his speed figure would be just a touch slower. When asked, as he most surely will be on Saturday, he may show he’s every bit the contender whom Beyer dismisses.

Odds: 20-1

Dark-Horse Contender: Upstart

He ran a huge Beyer (108) in a loss to Materiality in the Florida Derby. Breaking from Post 19 in the Kentucky Derby is a hurdle but not a terrible one. There’s a lot of speed around him, so he should be able to ease toward the rail and save ground.

Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form said, “Certainly top-class, but concerned two tough races over tiring surface at GP could cause him to regress."

To which Mike Watchmaker, Privman’s colleague, added, “Only second best in Florida Derby, but got a nice Beyer. Can get involved if he drops back, makes one run."

That’s what Upstart will have to do. It makes sense with American Pharoah to his left, and that should allow him easy clearance to save as much ground as possible for one good run at the leaders.

Odds: 15-1

The Favorite: American Pharoah

Not much more can be said about American Pharoah. His two prep races this year—one in the slop, one over a fast track—were visually stunning. He won with ease. He’s fresh. His Sunday-morning tune-up for the Derby was regaled as one of the best ever by Gary Young, a clocker and bloodstock agent. He told PaulickReport.com:

"

I have been doing this for 35 years and he might be the best horse I’ve ever seen. He’s simply like Michael Jordan and stays in the air like he did in his rookie year. He stays in the air longer than any horse and you get the feeling that there’s not one gear left, but he may have two, three or four gears.

"

Were it not for his stablemate Dortmund, American Pharoah would be apocalyptically terrifying. Instead he’s just terrifying.

John Pricci spoke to two trainers on HorseRaceInsider.com and relayed what he heard from several trainers concerning Pharoah:

"

I asked both men the same question: “Is there anything about American Pharoah’s constitution, demeanor, action or running style that could compromise his chances?”

They had the exact same answer: “No weakness.”

Elsewhere, Steve Cauthen used the word "freak" to describe American Pharoah's ability. "Super horse" is what Todd Pletcher called him; "lengths ahead of Dortmund" was how Wayne Lukas put it.

"

There was the as-of-yet unexplained leg injury that derailed American Pharoah’s winter campaign somewhat, but beyond that it’s just they said above: no weakness.

Odds: 5-2

Prediction

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

It could be a Bob Baffert exacta, which will post all sorts of interesting Preakness questions. We'll cross that bridge when we get there.

1. American Pharoah
2. Dortmund
3. Mubtaahij
4. Keen Ice

Derby odds come courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com