Why Baylor QB Bryce Petty Isn't Worth Reaching for in 2015 NFL Draft

There isn't a position in the NFL draft that carries more weight than quarterback. Every year, the top prospects receive a tremendous amount of attention, both from NFL clubs and the draftnik community alike.

However, the desperate situation that more than a few teams find themselves in can give them tunnel vision. They will look past flaws and ignore red flags in their zeal to upgrade at the league's most important position.

In 2015, Baylor Bears signal-caller Bryce Petty fits the bill.

There's little argument who the top prospects are under center this year: Florida State's Jameis Winston, Oregon's Marcus Mariota and, well, everybody else.

Rank	Mike Mayock (NFLN)	Rob Rang (CBS)	Todd McShay (ESPN)
1.	Marcus Mariota	Jameis Winston	Jameis Winston
2.	Jameis Winston	Marcus Mariota	Marcus Mariota
3.	Bryce Petty	Brett Hundley	Bryce Petty
4.	Garrett Grayson	Bryce Petty	Garrett Grayson
5.	Brett Hundley	Garrett Grayson	Sean Mannion

However, for more analysts than not, Petty is the No. 3 prospect at the position. That's after a 2014 season in which the 6'3," 230-pounder threw for nearly 3,900 yards and 29 touchdowns to lead the Bears to an 11-2 record.

There's plenty to like about Petty.

He has ideal size, and while he isn't going to be confused with Baylor's most well-known quarterback, Robert Griffin III, Petty is plenty capable of extending plays with his legs when needed.

As Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com wrote, Petty's arm strength and ability to make all the throws required of NFL quarterbacks aren't in question:

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When he gets in a rhythm, Petty is highly efficient passing downfield, showing touch, timing and placement, especially when peppering zone coverage with quick throws underneath. Has shown improvement with functional mobility to extend plays outside of the pocket and hit targets downfield for big plays vertically.

"

He also displayed plus athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine in February (finishing among the top performers in a number of drills) and shined both in Indy and at Baylor's pro day throwing the ball.

Baylor head coach Art Briles told Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that he views his former QB as a first-round pick when the 2015 NFL Draft kicks off April 30:

Granted, Briles may be viewing Petty through green-and-gold tinted lenses, but it could still happen. The teams picking at the back end of Round 1 may not need a quarterback, but as we saw last year with the Minnesota Vikings and Teddy Bridgewater, there could easily be a club sitting at the top of Round 2 that is willing to trade up a handful of spots.

That team could be making a mistake if it expects Petty to make a substantial contribution in the NFL anytime soon. Part of the problem is the shotgun spread he played in at Waco. Petty didn't make the pre-snap reads for the Bears; he looked to the sidelines and Briles for that, and it showed.

In the games where Petty struggled, it was often because his first read on a play was covered. He wasn't consistent when it came to reading through his progressions or improvising down the field.

As one AFC scout told Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, that portends a relatively steep learning curve for Petty at the NFL level: "Offenses that ask quarterbacks to look to the sidelines so coaches can make the pre-snap reads will never crank out NFL-ready quarterbacks. Those quarterbacks all need redshirt years in the league."

That learning curve becomes all the more pronounced when you consider Petty is almost 24 years old. Sure, he isn't as long in the tooth as, say, Brandon Weeden (another shotgun spread quarterback) was when he entered the NFL a few years ago.

But guess who Brugler sees on the field when watching Petty play? "Petty is reminiscent of a younger, more athletic version of Weeden, coming from a spread offense that relies on a lot of quick, one-read plays that make it easy to identify single matchups."

Dang, Dane. That's just mean.

And just in case you're a Cleveland Browns fan who has blocked it out of your memory, Weeden was a first-round pick (22nd overall) in 2012.

Granted, this doesn't mean Petty is doomed to follow the same path to NFL mediocrity that Weeden did. It's possible that with a year or two of seasoning, Petty will improve a great deal when it comes to making his progressions and seeing the field.

However, there are more than a few parallels between the 2015 draft and the 2012 edition. In 2012, there were two quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin) who stood head and shoulders above their counterparts at the position. This year, it's Mariota and Winston.

In 2012, a Cleveland team desperate to obtain a franchise quarterback was convinced that Weeden's flaws were fixable. It looked past the warts at Weeden's size and arm and pulled the trigger on what many pundits considered a reach.

We may well be watching that scenario play out all over again with Petty in 2015.

Don't be surprised if the results wind up being the same.

Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPManor.