Predicting Which Top Incoming Freshmen Will Go One-and-Done After 2015-16 Season

Will they, or won't they?

A question that used to be reserved for wondering whether characters from popular TV shows would ever start a relationship is now something that is posed toward every top-tier freshman in college basketball. With the NBA requiring players to be one year removed from their high school graduating class, the best of the best often spend only a single season in college.

With the deadline to declare for the NBA draft looming on April 26, we've already seen 12 freshmen become "one-and-done" players by turning pro, and a few notables still haven't made their decisions.

And in many cases these players had an idea they were going to head to the NBA after one season, but it wasn't a certainty for others. We're putting on our prediction hat to project which of the 20 best freshmen from the 2015 class will be one-and-done and which will stick around for at least two years.

20. Thomas Bryant

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Position: Power Forward

Height, Weight: 6'10", 225 lbs

Status: Committed to Indiana

Indiana got burned by an unexpected one-and-done player two years ago, when 6'10" Noah Vonleh headed to the NBA and became a lottery pick, but he only played 25 games as a rookie. The Hoosiers seem to have avoided a similar fate after this past season, as none of their freshmen have declared for the 2015 draft.

That means Indiana is going to have a stacked team this upcoming year, especially with the addition of a much-needed inside presence in Thomas Bryant. But on that same note, a strong team fueled by Bryant's contributions will likely make him an enticing choice for an early NBA departure.

One and done? Yes

19. Carlton Bragg

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Position: Power Forward

Height, Weight: 6'8", 205 lbs

Status: Committed to Kansas

In a preview of the McDonald's All-American Game in Chicago, Will Larkin of the Chicago Tribune quoted Carlton Bragg as saying "the ultimate goal for college is to win the national championship," but you also want to go somewhere you can develop into a pro. Larkin also noted that Bragg plans to spend one or two years in school.

Kansas has had two guys leave after one season each of the past two years, most recently with Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre jumping to the NBA draft as freshmen. Bragg might be a little less in a hurry to be a pro, given his comments, and while that's not a binding statement, it is an indication he's not a player who has already made up his mind.

The same can't be said for most of the dozen freshmen who have already declared following the 2014-15 season.

One and done? No

18. Dwayne Bacon

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Position: Shooting Guard

Height, Weight: 6'6", 190 lbs

Status: Signed with Florida State

Dwayne Bacon is the signature piece of a strong recruiting class for Florida State this upcoming season, and he comes to college having honed his skills at one of the top prep schools in the country in Oak Hill Academy. He's also shown off his ability to create highlights, winning the 2015 Powerade Jamfest dunk contest prior to the McDonald's All-American Game.

Bacon is viewed as a potential program savior—as well as someone who could keep his future coach, Leonard Hamilton, off the hot seat—and that kind of expectation will likely feed into his plans for beyond his freshman season. The hype surrounding this player is such that his performance at FSU won't matter as much as how scouts see him, similar to how Zach LaVine disregarded a less-than-impressive freshman year at UCLA in 2013-14 but put more stock in his aerial game (he ended up winning the NBA Slam Dunk Contest as a rookie in February) in order to become a first-round pick.

Bacon and LaVine are different kinds of players, and Bacon figures to have a much more productive freshman year in college. But that's where the differences end, as Bacon will join in LaVine in turning pro early.

One and done? Yes

17. Luke Kennard

Andrew Nelles/Associated Press

Position: Shooting Guard

Height, Weight: 6'5", 180 lbs

Status: Signed with Duke

Now that Duke has become almost as much of a one-and-done factory as Kentucky, it's fair to assume that most (if not all) of the freshmen that Mike Krzyzewski brings in each year will be spending just a single season with the Blue Devils. That might be the case for the other members of Duke's 2015 class, but Luke Kennard's game is going to need to undergo a major adjustment.

Most notably, he'll need to show he can perform in a system where he isn't scoring nearly every point for his team.

Kennard averaged nearly 40 points per game for his high school in Ohio as a senior, finishing as the No. 2 all-time scorer in state history (and a few spots ahead of LeBron James). At Duke, though, he'll be competing with Grayson Allen and others for the same scoring opportunities, and this could lead to some serious growing pains.

One and done? No

16. Antonio Blakeney

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Position: Shooting Guard

Height, Weight: 6'4", 170 lbs

Status: Committed to LSU

Antonio Blakeney was originally committed to Louisville but backed out of that pledge last fall and then picked LSU as his college destination in the winter. By doing so, he went from possibly being the most talented player on his team to no better than the second-best with the Tigers.

Because of the presence of No. 1 overall recruit Ben Simmons, Blakeney won't have to be a one-man show at LSU like he's been almost everywhere he's played to this point. Most players of his ilk are usually looking to have the spotlight all to themselves, but his choice to align with another top prospect should be looked at as a sign of maturity.

With that in mind, Blakeney might also be more realistic about his NBA chances than most 5-star players and will be a strong candidate to stick around for more than one year in college.

One and done? No

15. Isaiah Briscoe

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Position: Point Guard

Height, Weight: 6'3.5", 200 lbs

Status: Committed to Kentucky

When Isaiah Briscoe announced on ESPNU in November that he had chosen Kentucky over Connecticut and St. John's, he was specific in his reason for doing so.

"Coach Calipari has a machine going on with getting point guards to the NBA," Briscoe said, via Jeff Borzello of ESPN.com. "John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Derrick Rose. I can see myself in that mold."

For those scoring at home, the three players Briscoe compared himself to spent a combined three seasons in college.

One and done? Yes

14. Chase Jeter

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Position: Power Forward

Height, Weight: 6'11", 230 lbs

Status: Signed with Duke

Chase Jeter was one of the first players on this list to make his college choice, picking Duke last August over offers from Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, UCLA and others. He made this decision with the assumption that Jahlil Okafor was going to turn pro and not impact his minutes as a freshman—a sign that Jeter has been thinking ahead for some time.

Naturally, that probably also translates to the NBA, and as a result he has been getting himself set up for a likely one-and-done college career.

Jeter isn't as coveted at the pro level as his two most recent Blue Devils power forward predecessors, including Jabari Parker, though after a year in Mike Krzyzewski's system that figures to change.

One and done? Yes

13. Brandon Ingram

Andrew Nelles/Associated Press

Position: Small Forward

Height, Weight: 6'8", 180 lbs

Status: Uncommitted

The top-rated player in North Carolina, per the 247Sports composite rankings, looks like he's going to one of the state's top two programs. And that decision may ultimately dictate his time in college, since one has sent its past two wings to the NBA after one season, and the other has a similarly sized player who chose not to turn pro after his freshman year.

Duke is the favorite to land Brandon Ingram, per 247Sports' Crystal Ball predictor, and he would figure to slide right into the spot that Justise Winslow held this past year. At North Carolina, Justin Jackson is set to return for his sophomore season.

Other schools are still in the mix for Ingram, such as Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA, and they too can factor into his future plans if he goes to one of those programs. For now, though, with Duke in front the signs point to a one-and-done situation.

One and done? Yes

12. Allonzo Trier

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Position: Shooting Guard

Height, Weight: 6'4", 185 lbs

Status: Signed with Arizona

If there's one thing Allonzo Trier has shown over the past few weeks while playing on a series of different national stages, it's that he's not one to bide his time and weigh his options before making a decision. He took a game-high 18 shots in 20 minutes in the McDonald's All-American Game, took 12 shots in 23 minutes in the Nike Hoop Summit and then led all scorers with 28 points in Friday's Jordan Brand Classic.

"Allonzo Trier is always a candidate to be the top scorer whenever he's playing," ESPN.com's Jeff Borzello tweeted during the Classic.

With that kind of a mindset, he could be in for a rude awakening when he heads to Arizona this fall, as Sean Miller's teams have been among the most balanced offensively of any team in the country the last few years. It also makes it likely he won't waste any time going to the NBA, regardless of what his production is like as a freshman.

One and done? Yes

11. Henry Ellenson

Andy Manis/Associated Press

Position: Power Forward

Height, Weight: 6'10", 230 lbs

Status: Signed with Marquette

Mock drafts have Henry Ellenson high up on the list for 2016, but those projections assume he'll make a swift recovery from the broken hand he suffered in March in his final high school game and that no other injuries will pop up that could slow his progress. But what really could indicate whether Ellenson heads to the NBA after one season is how he develops in college.

He's gone off the beaten path of sorts by signing with Marquette, which was a Big East doormat this past season. Coach Steve Wojciechowski convinced the in-state product not to sign with more established Wisconsin, which is a huge step forward for the program as it looks to get back to a loftier perch.

Ellenson's arrival should help that cause, but it probably won't be a one-year turnaround. This had to factor somewhat in his decision to play there, so look for Ellenson to lean toward staying in school unless his stock rises further during his freshman year.

One and done? No

10. Thon Maker

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Position: Center

Height, Weight: 7'0", 205 lbs

Status: Uncommitted

Until a few months ago, Thon Maker was going to be in the 2016 recruiting class and figured to be a top target of most of college's biggest programs. That hasn't changed since he reclassified to 2015, as Kansas and Kentucky are the front-runners to land his services for next season.

While there are a lot of reasons to warrant moving up a class, the biggest is the ability to get into the NBA sooner. Had Maker stayed in the 2016 class, he wouldn't get to enter the draft until 2017, when he'd be 20 years old.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Maker is NBA-ready, and while DraftExpress and NBADraft.net both have him as the No. 25 pick in 2016, this may be more a product of his future value rather than his ability to make an instant impact.

One and done? Yes

9. Caleb Swanigan

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Position: Center

Height, Weight: 6'8", 265 lbs

Status: Committed to Michigan State

When Caleb Swanigan bucked all predictions—which had him headed to California—and committed to Michigan State, he made what was already going to be a solid Spartans team in 2015-16 even better. And he has the look of a Tom Izzo-type player, someone who's just as interested in banging around and getting dirty as anything else.

But like most of Izzo's players, Swanigan probably needs more development before he can be in the NBA.

Izzo has only had one player leave for the pros after one season (Zach Randolph in 2002), and since then big men like Draymond Green and Adreian Payne have stayed all four years before going into the draft. Green was a second-round pick and is headed into free agency as a hot commodity, while Payne just finished a solid first season in the NBA.

Swanigan could be MSU's next great pro post player, but it won't be after one season.

One and done? No

8. Stephen Zimmerman

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Position: Center

Height, Weight: 6'11", 214 lbs

Status: Committed to UNLV

Stephen Zimmerman took his name off the board this past week when he decided to stay in Las Vegas and join another talent-rich recruiting class for the Runnin' Rebels. UNLV's three-man class is currently rated seventh by 247Sports after last year's group ranked fifth. One member of the 2014 class, Rashad Vaughn, has already turned pro, and Zimmerman figures to be the best bet to do that from this squad after one season.

But Zimmerman still has some development to do in terms of being a post player at the NBA level. While he's shown great range and strong ball-handling skills, there are concerns that he lacks the strength to handle professional big men in the paint.

"In order to thrive at the next level, especially if he maintains his current track toward the NBA, bulking up will be absolutely essential," Bleacher Report's Tim Daniels wrote.

UNLV's 2014-15 team was loaded with long-and-lean players but didn't have much power. If he can't get stronger in one season, he'll need more time to prepare his body for the pros.

One and done? No

7. Cheick Diallo

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Position: Power Forward

Height, Weight: 6'9", 218 lbs

Status: Uncommitted

There's no hotter prep prospect right now than Cheick Diallo, who earned MVP honors for his performances in both the McDonald's All-American Game on April 1 and the Jordan Brand Classic on Friday in Brooklyn. He shared the second award with Arizona signee Allonzo Trier, as Diallo tallied 26 points and 11 rebounds.

Diallo's play of late has had him race up the draft boards for 2016, increasing the likelihood he'll spend only one season in college. The West African-born post player has been dynamic recently, and this has caused his short list of notable suitors to put a full-court press on him to make his choice.

He played his high school ball just outside of New York City, and St. John's could be a perfect place for him to showcase his talents for the pros. The fact that new Red Storm coach Chris Mullin has hired assistants from Iowa State and Kentucky who were those schools' main recruiters of Diallo adds to the likelihood that's where he's heading.

And if that happens, look for New York Knicks fans to attend as many games in Madison Square Garden watching their potential future player as they do the Knicks' current players.

One and done? Yes

6. Ivan Rabb

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Position: Power Forward

Height, Weight: 6'10", 210 lbs

Status: Committed to California

Ivan Rabb is staying close to his Oakland roots, committing to nearby California on April 13 in an announcement made at his mother's restaurant that's only a few minutes from campus. He might someday end up playing in the area as a pro for the Golden State Warriors, but don't expect that path to start anytime soon.

Though he's rated by 247Sports as the No. 6 overall recruit in the 2015 class, Rabb might be the least NBA-ready of this year's top freshmen.

"I think he's got a long way to go," Jonathan Givony of NBADraft Express said, per Josh Newman of Zagsblog.com. "We keep waiting for him to turn into this tantalizing prospect that we thought he would be two years ago when everyone had him No. 1 in his class, but it just hasn't materialized."

That could come about at Cal, where he'll be a featured attraction and get plenty of minutes to hone his game. For now, though, he appears slated for a multiyear college career.

One and done? No

5. Jaylen Brown

Position: Small Forward

Height, Weight: 6'7", 217 lbs

Status: Uncommitted

Jaylen Brown still has a long list of potential destinations for 2015-16. He could join Ivan Rabb at California, team up with Carlton Bragg at Kansas, be part of the next great recruiting class at Kentucky or stay in his home state of Georgia.

While his college choice is still up in the air, where he ends up a year from now is even less certain since it will probably depend on which team drafts him in June 2016.

Brown is listed as the No. 2 pick in next year's draft by DraftExpress, while NBADraft.net has him going third overall. A lot can change once Brown gets into school, but his career path looks headed for the quickest, shortest route possible to the NBA.

One and done? Yes

4. Diamond Stone

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Position: Center

Height, Weight: 6'10", 246 lbs

Status: Committed to Maryland

Diamond Stone and his family are saying all the right things when describing his choice to play for Maryland rather than a school closer to his Wisconsin home. And those statements aren't just the standard ones related to finding a place where Stone can prepare for the NBA, but rather one where he can set himself up for the future in general.

"We did our research, and we saw the personnel that would be around him," Stone's father, Robert, told Don Markus of The Baltimore Sun. "[The schools] were all in our eyes equally balanced for Diamond to go in and have a prosperous college career."

Robert Stone's comments also touched on academic support and cultural diversity, as well as preparing his son for a life where he could end up with a lot of money and the need to be "a progressive person."

Stone is tabbed by many experts as a one-and-done player, and he's on most draft boards, but for now he seems like the kind of player whose family will want him to stick around a little longer to ensure he's ready for the real world.

One and done? No

3. Malik Newman

Andrew Nelles/Associated Press

Position: Combo Guard

Height, Weight: 6'3", 174 lbs

Status: Uncommitted

Even though Malik Newman has yet to make his college decision—he's considering Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, North Carolina State and Ole Miss—it seems clear he only plans on being there for one year. He's indicated he doesn't plan on signing a national letter of intent when he does commit, nor does he intend to make any official visits to his potential schools.

If he doesn't want to be locked into a declaration of a school and doesn't even want to make sure that school has the facilities, atmosphere and (at least for a few semesters) academics that work for him, what would make him want to stay there any longer than he's required to?

Newman is projected by DraftExpress as the No. 4 pick in 2016, and NBADraft.net has him ninth overall. It seems like Newman has his mind set on next year's draft no matter what experts see happening in his future.

One and done? Yes

2. Skal Labissiere

Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Position: Center

Height, weight: 6'10", 200 lbs

Status: Signed with Kentucky

Considering how many Kentucky freshmen have gone into the NBA draft after one year under John Calipari—the number grew to 15 with three more after this season—it stands to reason that any big-name signee whom the Wildcats bring in is expected to turn pro as a freshman. Skal Labissiere is no exception, and with the way his stock has been rising in the past month, it seems like almost a foregone conclusion he'll be a one-and-done player.

Some 2016 mock drafts are tabbing the Haiti-born Labissiere as the No. 1 pick, including DraftExpress, who, after watching him go for 21 points, six rebounds and six blocks in the Nike Hoop Summit on April 11, noted he was a "bouncy big man" who possesses "physical tools, versatility on defense, and (an) offensive skill set (that will) him up for a monster season at Kentucky and should make it tough for whatever team ends up with the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA draft to pass him up."

Labissiere will also benefit from sliding right into a lineup at Kentucky that's short on big men and where his predecessors (Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Karl-Anthony Towns) are likely first-round picks this June.

One and done? Yes

1. Ben Simmons

Position: Small Forward

Height, Weight: 6'8", 220 lbs

Status: Signed with LSU

With the size of a post player and the skills of a guard, Ben Simmons is that rare breed that you could rightfully label as a "point forward." And considering how much the NBA loves big guys who can handle the ball in the open court, he's almost a lock to turn pro after one season.

In fact, the need to wait until he's 19 and has spent a year in school is probably the only reason he's not already headed to the NBA. Had he stayed in his native Australia he'd be considered a foreign player, and since he turns 19 in July he'd be eligible for this year's draft, but Simmons spent the past three years playing for Montverde Prep in Florida and led the program to three straight unofficial national high school titles.

Simmons has been aligned with LSU for some time, and despite the Tigers not being the standard destination for one-and-done players, it's where he's set himself up to put together one monster year before heading into the NBA.

One and done? Yes

All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.