Battle for No. 3 Pick in 2015 NFL Draft Sets Up Jaguars with 'Win-Win' Scenario
Sitting with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to have a number of different scenarios that can unfold for them.
Most people have pegged them as the primary landing spot for one of the top edge-rushers in this year's class. Though Jacksonville did get plenty of pass rush last year from a bevy of different players, it's hard to debate that a true elite player could make things even better. And hey, Florida edge player Dante Fowler has all but mocked himself there!
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Since the Jaguars don't necessarily need a quarterback, they can auction the pick should Florida State's Jameis Winston or Oregon's Marcus Mariota fall that far. If neither of them do, then they can begin the debate on USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams versus that edge player.
There's a lot to unpack here, but most of the decisions to be made are blessings rather than curses.
Beasley or Bust
The common perception entering January was that the top edge-rusher spot in the draft is in the eye of the beholder. Missouri's Shane Ray, Clemson's Vic Beasley, Florida's Fowler and Nebraska's Randy Gregory were all popular names at the top of mock drafts.
In the eye of analytics, this is actually a really easy question to answer. Beasley is seen as far and away the best pass-rusher in this class by Football Outsiders' SackSEER score.
| Vic Beasley | Clemson | 95.7% | 34.0 |
| Randy Gregory | Nebraska | 89.7% | 32.2 |
| Bud Dupree | Kentucky | 94.6% | 29.2 |
| Dante Fowler | Florida | 43.3% | 21.7 |
| Shane Ray | Missouri | 18.5% | 20.4 |
If you look at the pure ability to bend the edge, which is something that is of paramount importance as an NFL pass rusher, Beasley wins there too. My subjective belief is that this is something that translates very well to the NFL. Compared to players like Fowler, who according to Pro Football Focus generated more pressure inside than outside, I think Beasley has an advantage.
Gregory isn't a bad player by any means, but when you add the failed drug test at the NFL combine to the perception that he can't play in the NFL at 250, I think you can see that he has more flags than Beasley. Ray has so many flags about his play that he could decorate a state capital.
The answer here, to me, is simple: If the Jaguars are locked into a pass-rusher with the third overall pick, Beasley is the best bet to be a success. His pass rush translates best both empirically and subjectively, and he has the fewest flaws of any of this group of first-round edge-rushers.
"vic beasley is still the best prospect in this draft
— Beaux Jaxson (@BeauxJaxson) April 10, 2015"
Too Soon for a New Bortleback?
I'll get out in front of this immediately: I don't think the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to give up on Blake Bortles after just one season.
But it merits mentioning, again, that Bortles was an objective disaster in his first season. He was one of the four worst quarterbacks in the history of Football Outsiders' DYAR, which stretches back all the way to 1989.
| David Carr | HOU | 2002 | -1,129 | -47.4% |
| Blaine Gabbert | JAX | 2011 | -1,009 | -46.5% |
| Bobby Hoying | PHI | 1998 | -964 | -68.3% |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | 2014 | -955 | -40.5% |
The highest pick we've ever seen immediate surrender on at quarterback was when the Panthers immediately bolted from second-rounder Jimmy Clausen to select Cam Newton No. 1 overall. Clausen was objectively better than Bortles was last season, and I think even if you harbor hopes that working with new offensive coordinator Greg Olsen will change things for Bortles, you have to admit he has a long way to go in a short period of time.
It's to the point where even massive improvement will only take Bortles so far as a starting quarterback.
And while I think there is something to the notion that he played too soon and developed bad habits ... well, the deed is done. As Futurama taught us: We saw it, we can't un-see it. We'll never know what Bortles would have been like without being forced into the fire, just as we won't know what David Carr would have looked like before him.
I'm of the opinion that Marcus Mariota has a chance, at his ceiling, to be one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. I know that's not a popular sentiment (though it has some backers), but that's where I stand. And if I'm Jacksonville, and I see what's happened to Bortles and where likely improvement would take him, I think you have to take a long hard look at pulling the trigger on Mariota—perhaps, this time, not rushing him onto the field within three games of the opener.
Especially if you can get someone else to believe in the mythos of a Bortles rebound to the extent that they'll give up a high draft pick for him.
Reaping the Trade Rewards
Of course, if the Jaguars aren't willing to move on from Bortles, and we pencil the Titans in for Williams, the odds are that some team will fall in love with whichever of the quarterbacks survives to 3. The Cleveland Browns, for instance, hold two first-round picks and recently hired Mariota's tutor as their quarterbacks coach.
Here's what NBC's Josh Norris thinks could be a fair price for the pick based on his most recent mock draft:
| First-Round Pick | 3 | First-Round Pick | 12 |
| First-Round Pick | 19 | ||
| 2016 Third-Round Pick | ?? |
And if we attach values from Chase Stuart's recent work on draft picks to those selections, it looks like this:
| Third overall pick | 27.6 | Twelfth overall pick | 18.8 |
| Nineteenth overall pick | 15.8 | ||
| 2016 third-round pick (floor) | 5.5 |
Honestly, I think the Jaguars could do a little better than this. The Browns are hardly the only team looking to move up to fix quarterback. The Jets would love to do better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Eagles have long been rumored to want to reel in Mariota. The Rams have been mentioned by CBS' Jason La Canfora as another team interested in Mariota. The Chargers could move up and get a new heir for Philip Rivers.
If one of those two quarterbacks is still on the board at No. 3, it could be potentially lucrative for Jacksonville. Picking at 12 should enable them to still get a top pass-rusher and also add another young piece, perhaps at running back or on the offensive line.
Poking Holes in Leonard Williams
Of course, if both quarterbacks are off the board at No. 3, then the Jaguars will probably find themselves tempted by USC lineman Leonard Williams.
Trumpeted by former NFL rusher Ryan Riddle as the best player in this draft, Williams has an advanced feel for hand techniques. He's got terrific speed for his size and showed the potential to be one of the most dominant defensive tackles in the NFL in taking over games the way he did last year.
However, there are some concerns about Williams as a perfect match for the Jaguars. One is that he was actually a little passive off the line last year for USC—something that Pro Football Focus trumpeted in wondering if we were all overrating his ability to make an impact. You don't have to spend a lot of time watching football to notice that Williams is slow off the line sometimes.
Another Jaguars-specific problem is that Williams may not be giving them something they don't have already. Jacksonville already has plenty of pass rush inside between Sen'Derrick Marks and Ryan Davis. And while it's great that Williams is a complete player, the main goal of most linemen these days is to get after the quarterback. Weight your ratings towards pass rush, and Williams may not even crack the top two interior rushers on Jacksonville's roster.
All in all, when the worst-case scenario is that you can wind up with a player like Leonard Williams, you must be sitting in the penthouse of the draft.
There's a lot of solutions here that create a profound positive impact on the long-term future of the franchise. All the Jaguars have to do is not screw it up.
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