Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Saturday night's main event between Lyoto Machida and Luke Rockhold feels like one of those fights that can't disappoint (logically, it probably will).
You have two guys who are comfortable taking the fight anywhere it may go. They'll strike. They'll grapple. They'll stalk each other for five rounds if they have to. Whatever the necessary route to the title, they'll take it.
April 18 is still a ways away, and there's really no telling how this fight is going to play out. The best we can do for now is break the bout down from head to toe and see if it leads us anywhere closer to a potential outcome for this five-round affair between two title contenders.
Striking
1 of 5
Put Machida up against any fighter in the UFC and it won't matter—he's the best striker there is.
Sure, Chris Weidman was able to alter The Dragon's strategy enough to retain his crown back in July, but that doesn't make him a better striker—it makes him a better executor. On pure striking alone—when talking about footwork, gauging distance, precision and timing—nobody does it better than Machida. Nobody.
But that hasn't stopped previous opponents from entertaining the idea that they're capable of standing toe-to-toe with the former light heavyweight champion. And in all likelihood, it probably won't stop Rockhold from doing so either.
Because for as many submissions as Rockhold has on his resume, it's his improved striking that has impressed the masses of UFC fans since he made the transition into the Octagon. It's also his striking that often leads to said submissions. Will his confidence to strike with the striker bode well for him, though? Probably not.
Edge: Machida
Grappling
2 of 5
Neither man should ever be colored a masterful grappler. Both fighters are good at maneuvering on the ground, but neither man has much success at forcing his opponents down there.
Rockhold boasts a 20 percent takedown accuracy rate while defending 72 percent of attempts thrown his way, according to FightMetric. Machida is more successful on both fronts, landing 65 percent of his own while defending 77 percent of his opponents' efforts.
But there's more to this than sheer numbers, particularly because of the unorthodox Brazilian fighter who'll likely have his gloves taped in red come Saturday night. He doesn't shoot for takedowns like the traditional mixed martial artist does—not at all.
Machida finds his way into fighting inside a phone booth just long enough to sweep a leg or trip his opponents onto the mat. It's not exactly textbook, but certainly effective. This proves especially fruitful for Machida, who often spends much of his time fighting from the outside, leaving most of his opposition thirsty for an opportunity to get close.
Edge: Machida
Submissions
3 of 5
There's no question which fighter has the advantage here.
Machida's sash may be the same color as Rockhold's (black), but as is in most cases, color doesn't tell the whole story. A brief glance at each middleweight's fight history will tell you that Rockhold has the advantage in both submission victories (eight to two) and losses (zero to one).
The Dragon's lone submission loss came at the hands (and pterodactyl arms) of light heavyweight champion Jon Jones in a standing guillotine, so maybe we can give him a slight pass there because so few men would have been able to defend that sort of freak submission.
Still, it's the fact that Rockhold might just be big enough to outmuscle Machida at any point during the fight that could force the former light heavyweight to beg for mercy before he can schedule another crack at the middleweight title.
Edge: Rockhold
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Machida: Open-Mindedness
We saw just how ineffective Machida was when challenging Weidman for the title last July. He landed effective shots from the outside but played it far too safe for far too long. By the time the championship rounds came around, he was forced to throw caution to the wind. It was time to fight.
It's not that he has more success when he dictates the pace of the fight. After all, he's known as one of the best counter-strikers the sport has ever seen. It's just that Machida struggles to recognize when the fight is lost and when it's still in his grasp. Had he realized what he needed to do against Weidman earlier on, we might have been half a year into the second coming of The Machida Era.
Rockhold: Pressure and Size
Yes, Machida needs to keep an open mind in order to win this fight. Rockhold doesn't—he needs to force Machida into a corner much like Weidman did at UFC 175. That's when Machida struggles to unleash his arsenal of weapons.
Rockhold needs to move forward and laterally. That's how he wins this fight.
He also needs to make use of the size advantage he boasts when stepping into the cage with the former 205-er. With two more inches of height and three inches of reach, Rockhold has the inherent ability to push Machida back while throwing strikes.
Prediction
5 of 5
Both guys are built to hit hard and last a full five rounds. With only four losses by way of submission or TKO between them, it's unlikely either man goes down before the final bell rings, at least not down for good.
Rockhold may have the advantage in the submission and grappling department, but he often uses his length and striking to get opponents to the ground. He rarely shoots for a takedown, and that spells disaster against a fighter like Machida who already defends most of the takedowns that good wrestlers manage to disguise.
And considering most of Rockhold's offense, grappling or otherwise, stems from his ability to strike in the early goings of any given round, Machida should have more than enough to win this fight. He can utilize his counter-striking (like he did against Ryan Bader) or aggression (like he did against C.B. Dollaway) to force his opponent to question his next move. Either way, Machida is setting himself up for another chance to dance with the middleweight king.
Prediction: Machida wins via unanimous decision
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