Ohio State vs. Penn State and More: College Football Week 10 Projections

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week.

Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl matchups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2009.

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win).

Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog.

This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008.

Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where, and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position, and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team.

If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data.

In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 10 (Nov. 7, '09).

Game of the Week: No. 9 Ohio State—19 @ No. 13 Penn State—18

The defacto Big Ten Championship game will take place on Nov. 17 in Beaver Stadium when Ohio State travels to Penn State for a rematch of a game that the Nittany Lions won, 13-6, in Columbus last year.

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With teams that look equally talented at just about every other position, this game should come down to the quarterbacks and secondary. Penn State lost every player from its 2008 defensive backfield, whereas Ohio State brings back everyone but Malcolm Jenkins.

Watch for sophomore OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor to return to his native Pennsylvania and outperform his Penn State counterpart, Daryll Clark, by making one or two big plays in the passing game.

The Buckeyes find revenge and win 56.5 percent of the time and by an average score of 19-18. A Rose Bowl appearance likely awaits the Buckeyes...as does a rematch with USC.

Week 10 Standings

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynastyfrom WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!