NFL Draft 2015: Which Players Are Tumbling Down Draft Boards?
If you go back and look at all the NFL mock drafts from the past several months, you will notice there are prospects that rise and others that tumble. A mock draft or a big board in January often doesn’t resemble anything that comes out in April.
The reasons for these fluctuations are as wide and varied as the prospects themselves. However, at this point in the draft season, there are a few big factors that affect movement.
First are non-football concerns. Character starts to bubble to the surface, and once the media gets ahold of it, you will see a lot of movement. It’s likely the league already knew about these things, had them slotted on their boards based on it already and didn’t change a thing.
Second are workouts. When guys start to bomb combine and pro-day workouts, people take notice. By contrast, players will tumble because other prospects at the same positions shine and force them down.
Finally, we have the groupthink that is unavoidable this time of year among the media. One guy moves a guy down, and pretty soon, six more pundits have dropped him. This isn't based on any factual analysis; rather, it's more about following trends and the herd.
With that, let’s take a look at eight players who seem to be tumbling down draft boards as we get closer and closer to the first round of the 2015 NFL draft.
If you want to see where these guys are ranked by some of the experts, check out these links.
CBS Sports expert mock drafts
NFL.com expert mock drafts
Bleacher Report's own Matt Miller
ESPN mock drafts from Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr.
Randy Gregory, Edge-Rusher, Nebraska
1 of 8
If you go back and peruse mock drafts from during the college football season, Nebraska edge-rusher Randy Gregory was a regular fixture at the top of the first round. Gregory’s combination of length and athleticism is impressive, and the film is strong.
However, as we move closer to the draft, things aren’t so rosy for the former Nebraska star. First, it surfaced, via Bleacher Report’s own Matt Miller, that Gregory ended the season at 218 pounds, which is beyond disconcerting. Unless this kid had a tapeworm, the idea that he’s going to wither down to under 220 pounds in the NFL has to raise some red flags.
If that wasn’t enough, it came out a bit later, via NFL.com, that Gregory also failed a drug test at the combine. It makes sense that teams are knocking him down. Looking at the NFL.com expert mocks, both Lance Zierlein and Bucky Brooks have Gregory falling to the New Orleans Saints at No. 13. Pair these events up with the strength of this edge group, and no one should be shocked if Gregory takes a tumble.
Shane Ray, Edge-Rusher, Missouri
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There are really a couple of ways to look at the perceived drop of Missouri edge-rusher Shane Ray. His drop in the media could be a product of the pundits finally catching up to what the league already believed. Or it could be an issue of the media weighing some shortcomings heavier than the league does.
What we are talking about here is the dreaded three-cone drill. The drill itself is meant as a measure of agility. For a player like Ray, who is hoping to transition to a 3-4 pass-rushing outside linebacker, agility and change of direction are vital.
So how bad was it? Ray’s three-cone at the Missouri pro day was a disappointing 7.70 seconds.
To offer a bit of perspective, if Ray had been able to run it at the combine, nine offensive lineman would have done it faster. While this might seem insignificant, it isn’t. Ray is part of a very crowded group that includes Clemson’s Vic Beasley and Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr.; every tenth of a second can be huge. Ray may not fall out of the top half of the first round, but as a player that has been perched at the top, this is a tumble for sure.
Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
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If there was ever a prospect whose value was inflated by the media, it might have been Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson. In January, Thompson was an explosive playmaker with a spot in the top half of the first round all but secured. He was beloved by the draft media. Then, he showed up to the combine as a 228-pound linebacker who struggled to shed blocks and had average athleticism, and questions began to arise.
The fact that there isn’t even a consensus about which of three positions Thompson will be best at, along with the fact that he isn’t elite at any of them means he is going to tumble. How far? Look for some team to take a shot on him in the middle of the second round, but they will have to decide if he’s athletic enough to be a big safety or if he's strong enough to be a 4-3 outside linebacker.
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Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana
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This 2015 running back class has gotten a great deal of positive publicity as the offseason has gone on. You would think this group was going to produce three Adrian Petersons and even a Marshawn Lynch or two. However, as the draft approaches, draft pundits seem to be coming back to reality about this entire class—but in particular, Indiana’s Tevin Coleman.
Don’t get me wrong; Coleman is a respectable football player. And on the right team, he could be very productive. Nevertheless, with projections of him in the first round just a month ago, he was doomed to tumble, and now he has. Coleman has nothing about his game that is outstanding, and in a class full of guys like that, it is more reasonable to see Coleman near the end of the second round than anywhere sooner.
Ronald Darby, CB, FSU
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Of all the names on this list, Florida State cornerback Ronald Darby is the one I find the most puzzling. When I don't see his name in the first round of any expert mock drafts, I just scratch my head. This draft is just aching for a truly elite cornerback, and judging by the tape of the top ones in this class, Darby certainly qualifies.
Why has Darby fallen out of favor? It’s a combination of things, I suppose. It looks as though the media has become enamored with elite athletes like UConn’s Byron Jones and high-upside guys like LSU’s Jalen Collins over experienced and skilled players like Darby. Darby is sliding because teams don’t like his lack of interceptions, and that has pushed him well into the second round.
Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
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Michigan wide receiver Devin Funchess is another prospect whose draft stock went from inflated by the media to back to earth as the draft approaches. At the start of the college football season, his move from tight end to wide receiver was going to be revolutionary. His physical frame and athletic ability flashed. But his season as a whole was something of a fizzle.
All of that can’t be cast at his feet, as the team struggled mightily to move the ball. Unfortunately, a player is only as good as his film, and Funchess doesn’t have a lot of film to get excited about. That, mixed with some ridiculous talent at the wide receiver position this year, made it inevitable that Funchess would slide from a first-round prospect to something more reasonable in the second round.
Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
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No player benefited more from the college football playoff than Ohio State wide receiver Devin Smith. Smith put on a show in the playoffs and won the hearts and minds of football fans everywhere. Smith had a string of big plays that created an inflated sense of worth among the draft community. This had him planted in the middle of mock drafts based on a handful of highlights.
Unfortunately, once the hype settled a bit, and everyone had a chance to go back and study Smith more closely, things were a little different. The league doesn’t value guys who can only run go routes in the NFL as first-round prospects. There are simply too many wide receivers in this draft who are more complete for Smith’s stretch to carry him to the draft with a first-round grade. Can Smith be a solid pro? There's no doubt about it, but in terms of all-around talent, he is a notch below the best.
Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
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I was reluctant to include Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong on this list. Strong remains firmly in the middle of the first round of most expert mock drafts, falling somewhere between the No. 4 and No. 7 wide receiver. These rankings are justified, because Strong plays a very physical game that fits well with what the NFL asks of wide receivers.
However, I must defer to those in the know, and when NFL analyst Charley Casserly comes on Path to the Draft (on NFL Network) and declares Strong a second-round prospect, I have to wonder if he's onto something. With guys like UCF's Breshad Perriman and Oklahoma's Dorial Green-Beckham gaining so much momentum because of their overwhelming athleticism, it would be logical for Strong and his lack of dynamic triangle numbers to be the wide receiver who gets pushed down.
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