NFL Draft 2015: Mock Draft and Trends That Will Be Bucked This Year

With the 2015 NFL draft less than a month away, teams are scrambling to put together their big boards, consider any potential trade partners or deals that could pop up and study the draft trends of teams to get a better idea of how the annual spectacle might play out.

Below, we'll try to do the same, going through a full mock draft while also breaking down a few trends that seem likely to be reversed this season. Let's get to it.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
5	Washington	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
7	Chicago Bears	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
14	Miami Dolphins	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
16	Houston Texans	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
17	San Diego Chargers	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
19	Cleveland Browns	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
26	Baltimore Ravens	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
27	Dallas Cowboys	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
28	Denver Broncos	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
29	Indianapolis Colts	Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State
30	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
31	New Orleans Saints	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
32	New England Patriots	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri/Oklahoma

Mock Draft Notes

I don't think the Tennessee Titans will draft Marcus Mariota, and I don't project trades in my mock drafts, either, but there is so much buzz right now about some team moving up to get Mariota at No. 2 that it just seems silly to put him anywhere else. 

Mel Kiper Jr., for instance, wrote the following about Mariota at No. 2 overall in his latest mock draft for ESPN:

"Reminder: I don't project trades here. But in talking to people inside and outside the league, my sense is that Mariota is likely to be taken here—it's just hard to say which team is making the pick. Yes, it could be Tennessee, but it could be a handful of other teams if a deal gets done (San Diego, the Jets, Chicago, St. Louis...many have been named as possible fits). As I've said before, I think Mariota has done as much as he can to show he wasn't just a system guy at Oregon. I wouldn't want to start him right away in 2015, but you can't question Mariota's physical profile or his potential to improve and grow as an NFL quarterback given his attitude and work habits."

He didn't mention the Cleveland Browns—who hardly seem sold on Johnny Manziel and could yet trade him—and the Philadelphia Eagles, though it's hard to see how the Birds would put together a package to move up that high in the draft.

That means Leonard Williams could drop out of the top three, and it's hard to imagine the Oakland Raiders passing on him at No. 4. Which means Amari Cooper could actually drop to the Chicago Bears, surely a dream scenario for them, while the Atlanta Falcons might see the top pass-rushers go before them and have to take a chance on Randy Gregory.

I could easily see Gregory dropping into the the second half of the first round after failing a drug test, but I could also see a team being too tantalized by his talent to pass him up. And he would fit Dan Quinn's defense, which has gotten the most out of smaller pass-rushers like Bruce Irvin in Seattle. Gregory would be a nice fit for Quinn's "4-3 Under" defense and might be the best blend of need and talent when Atlanta picks. 

At No. 10, I don't think the St. Louis Rams have a huge need for a receiver, but I also can't see them bypassing a potential playmaker like Kevin White at that spot. He'd be the best player on the board, and he would give Nick Foles an option to really stretch defenses vertically. If Foles is the man going forward for the Rams, they would be wise to surround him with as many quality weapons as possible. 

Finally, yes, I could see the New England Patriots taking a chance on Dorial Green-Beckham. The Patriots don't have a big, field-stretching wideout like Green-Beckham on the roster, and his immense upside, coupled with the fact that the Pats would be taking a chance on him with the No. 32 overall pick, make it feasible that they could draft him despite some prior character concerns. If he soothed their concerns in interviews, don't be shocked if he's selected by the Patriots.

Trends That Will Be Bucked

Running Backs Will Appear in the 1st Round 

Tom Lynn/Getty Images

The drought is over.

Well, OK, it's not technically over yet, but it seems incredibly likely that not only one but two running backs will be selected in the first round of this year's draft. For the past two years, no running backs have been selected in the opening round as teams continue to devalue the position and turn to committee approaches in their backfields. 

But Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are too talented to drop very far. Gurley could potentially be a top-15 pick, though I have him going No. 17 overall, while Gordon won't drop past the Dallas Cowboys in the first round—if he even falls that far. 

Gordon isn't buying that the position has been devalued, however, as he said during the NFL Scouting Combine, according to Frank Cooney of NFLDraftScout.com (via CBSSports.com):

"

It's a passing game. It's hard to say if we're a devalued position. Teams are just going with the picks they actually need. I don't know the thoughts that's going through their head. Maybe they didn't feel the running backs the last couple of years were first-round talent. ... We just have to change that this year and show people that we're capable of going in the first round.

"

It seems likely that Gurley and Gordon will do just that.

No Offensive Lineman in the Top 5

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

At least one offensive lineman has been taken as a top-five selection in three straight drafts and in eight of the last nine. That won't happen this year, however. 

While there is plenty of talent to be had at the position this year, none of it feels like elite talent. Some of the top players at offensive tackle—a position that always comes at a premium—such as Brandon Scherff and La'el Collins—are probably best suited at right tackle or guard, a position that teams don't value nearly as highly as left tackle at the draft. 

It doesn't help that there are two quarterbacks who could be top-five picks, a dominant defensive tackle in Leonard Williams, a number of edge-rushers and two wideouts, Amari Cooper and Kevin White, who can all make a case for being selected in the top five. 

Scherff probably won't drop out of the top 10 at this year's draft, but even if he did, it wouldn't be shocking, given the talent available at other positions. There is pretty solid depth on the line this year, but an offensive lineman probably won't be making an appearance at the top of the draft.