Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: August 25th 2009

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Free MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -140 (August 25th 2009)
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The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants square off in a three-game set at AT&T Park with the first game set for Tuesday night and a first pitch at 10:15PM Eastern Time. This will be the final series of a ten game road trip for the Diamondbacks who are 61-82 (-21.4) in road games the last 2 seasons and 2-8 (-7.8) after 7 or more consecutive road games this season. San Fran returns home off an eleven game road trip of their own.

Arizona is 55-70 (-17.8) on the season overall and out of the playoff hunt while San Francisco is 6.5 games behind the division leading Dodgers and 3.5 back of second place Colorado with a record of 67-57 (+10.1). The Giants have been extremely tough at home posting a record of 39-20 (+15.5) this season. That’s not good news for this Arizona team as they are 42-68 (-29.6) when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons.

The difference in the two teams can easily be explained when you see that San Fran is ranked 1 in pitching with an ERA of 3.53 with opponents hitting .237 and have an OBP of .312 against them. The Diamondbacks are ranked 15 in pitching with an ERA of 4.33 with opponents hitting .264 and have an OBP of .329 against them.

At the plate we see much of the same with the Giants ranked 16 in hitting with a batting average of .261 averaging 4.0 runs per game with an OPS of .700. Arizona is ranked 28 in hitting with a batting average of .252 averaging 4.4 runs per game and an OPS of .742. The Diamondbacks have really struggled of late at the plate and we know they are 40-54 (-21.9) after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span the last 2 seasons.

Arizona will send right-hander Dan Haren to the bump with his 12-8 record and ERA of 2.74. He has a record of 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA on the road this season but recently he has struggled. Haren is coming off a horrible performance at Philly in his last start where he pitched for 5 innings giving up 6 earned runs on 9 hits including three homeruns in an 8 to 1 loss. Prior to that start he won at home versus the Dodgers 4 to 1 but his previous road start saw him lose in Washington 5 to 2 throwing for 6 innings giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits and two homeruns.

The Giants will send right-hander Matt Cain to the hill with his 12-4 record and ERA of 2.43. When Cain takes the bump at home he is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.37 and the Giants are 10-2 in his 12 home starts this season. He lost his last start throwing for 8 innings in Cincinnati giving up 1 earned run on 8 hits with 3 strikeouts in a 2 to 1 loss.

On the technical front we have two MLB Systems that are active for tonight’s game. The first tells us to Play AGAINST MLB (NL) road underdogs who allow 4.8 or more runs per game against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or better over his last five starts. This system is 108-34 over the last five seasons for +49.1 units. The second system tells us to Play ON MLB (NL) favorites in this price range who average scoring 4.1 runs or less per game facing a starter whose ERA is 3.70 or better and a bullpen who has a WHIP of 1.350 or better on the season. This system has a record of 41-10 since 1997 for +27.6 units of profit.

With significant support both fundamentally and technically for the host we will back them here as the Giants continue their pursuit of a playoff berth and the Diamondbacks begin their plans for the offseason.

Graded Selection: 2* San Francisco Giants 3 Arizona Diamondbacks 1