Safest, Riskiest Choices Miami Dolphins Might Consider in 2015 NFL Draft
It's relative to say what are the safest and riskiest choices the Miami Dolphins could make in the 2015 NFL draft.
Every pick is a risk, from the first round to the seventh round. What you want is someone who can fill a hole and contribute, but underneath that is the knowledge that nothing is guaranteed.
With that in mind, some picks are riskier than others. What makes a pick risky is any real inconsistency in play, injury history, off-field personal issues or any possible conflicts the player has had with coaches or teammates.
As for the safer picks, what makes those players safe is consistency throughout their college careers, an ability to stay healthy and the ability to handle changes, whether they come from position, coaching staff or scheme.
Here's a look at the safest and riskiest picks the Dolphins could make in the upcoming draft. In this piece, we'll look mainly at players the team can select in the first two rounds.
Safe: La'el Collins, Tackle/Guard, LSU
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If you want a safe player, one thing you want to look for is someone who was written up as being "consistently boring."
That has been the worst thing I've read about La'el Collins, and it was complimentary. In the piece, SB Nation's Stephen White describes Collins' tape as "boring with a bit of nasty," commenting:
"Watching Collins sit back to pass block reminded me of watching Taylor Lewan last year; everything looked the same from play to play no matter the opponent. Collins was so consistent with his patience and footwork that I had to rewind to make sure I wasn't watching the same play over and over again.
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My own look at the tape shows how true this is. Collins' pass blocking is some of the best you'll see, and he has progressed every year of college, showing skills that demonstrate that he's not just ready to play in the NFL but ready to start as well.
I know what you're thinking, though: Isn't he a tackle?
Yes, he is, and no, that's not Miami's main concern on its offensive line (it's guard).
Collins projects to be as good a guard as he would be a tackle, perhaps better. Lance Zierling of NFL.com seems to think so:
"Brawling right tackle or guard prospect in the NFL who has had a level of success in hyper-competitive SEC West. Lacks athleticism to be a consistent left tackle, despite his snaps there in college. Collins plays with a mean streak that is evident in every game, and could come in and start right away in a power-running game as a guard.
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Slide Collins in at right guard between Mike Pouncey and Ja'Wuan James. Then, place Billy Turner at left guard next to Branden Albert. That's the recipe for a dominant offensive line. No draft pick is a guarantee, but Collins is close to being one.
Risky: Todd Gurley, Running Back, Georgia
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This is a draft pick I would've considered safe only a few months ago.
I had good reason to think that, as Gurley is a rare Adrian Peterson-type tailback who dominated when he was on the field thanks to a career average of 6.4 yards per carry, 3,285 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns.
No, a controversy based off arbitrary and archaic NCAA rules doesn't damage how I see him in terms of his character, nor does it turn him into a risk.
A torn ACL, however, does make a draft pick a risk.
Right now, we don't have a real timetable as to when Gurley will be available, which should scare teams off drafting him.
It should be noted, though, that last week, Gurley spoke about his recovery with Alex Marvez and Gil Brandt on Sirius XM NFL radio (h/t Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk) and gave an update.
“I’m feeling pretty good, the recovery’s going pretty good,” Gurley said. “I’ve been starting to run and do like backpedaling and stuff like that. It’s been going pretty good, it’s going smoothly.”
Gurley is a high-risk player but could come with high rewards. From what I've seen, you might be looking at one of the most dominant running backs in the NFL once he's healthy, and that might be worth a high draft pick despite the long wait for him to get on the field.
Safe: DeVante Parker, Wide Receiver, Louisville
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Here is why DeVante Parker, despite missing the first seven games of the 2014 season with a broken foot, is considered a safe pick.
The first reason is the fact that he recovered well from the broken foot, and it showed no signs of slowing him down once he returned.
The second reason has to do with these statistics:
| Season | Receptions | Yards | Average | Touchdowns |
| 2013 | 55 | 885 | 16.1 | 12 |
| 2014 | 43 | 855 | 19.9 | 5 |
Some things to note:
- Parker went from having top-tier NFL prospect Teddy Bridgewater in 2013 to the combination of sophomores Will Gardner (until he got hurt for the year) and Reggie Bonnafon.
- Parker played in five fewer games in 2014 than he did in 2013.
- This was a brand-new head coach (going from Charlie Strong to Bobby Petrino) and a brand-new offense.
Despite the challenges Parker faced, he came back with a vengeance. If Parker could handle the turbulent season he had in 2014, he should be able to handle just about anything the NFL can throw his way.
That makes this pick a mighty safe one for the Dolphins to make at 14, assuming Parker's available there.
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Risky: Marcus Peters, Cornerback, Washington
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Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has some concerns about Marcus Peters:
"Talented cover cornerback with size, ball skills and the confidence NFL teams are looking for, but lacks the necessary discipline and maturity on the field and in practice. Peters has raw talent, but is far from a polished cornerback, and that is without taking the character concerns into consideration.
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Peters is the best fit at cornerback for the Miami Dolphins, a team desperately in need of depth at the position.
Taking him based off his talent alone should be a no-brainer. He has great size for the position and tremendous athleticism.
Peters has the production to back this up, too. In 35 games in three seasons, he has 93 tackles, nine tackles of a loss, 27 pass deflections and 11 interceptions.
So why is he so risky? Well, take a look at his rocky relationship with Washington head coach Chris Petersen; then, remember who's coaching the Dolphins and the history we've seen with him and difficult players.
Peters was dismissed from the Huskies in November after a season that included multiple run-ins with the coaching staff, including an outburst at Coach Petersen following a personal-foul penalty in the first game of the year.
According to Peters, it was after that incident when he should've been booted off the team, telling USA Today's Tom Pelissero:
"It was an avalanche ready to happen, man. It was going to collapse sooner or later. I don't blame (Petersen) for anything. All I can blame is myself, because I made those decisions and I have to live with them. Now I'll have to man up and I've got to answer these questions in interviews, and all I can do is sit there and answer truthfully and honestly.
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Peters insists that he has changed and so far has said all of the right things; however, what makes this pick more of a risk is Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin. Philbin has a history of not handling troubled players well, and usually it's those players who wind up out (Mike Wallace)—sometimes even before anything can occur (Brandon Marshall).
Even players who might be considered a little too headstrong find themselves exiled from Philbin's fiefdom (Reggie Bush, Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett).
Peters might be too much to handle for Philbin despite the fact that there are plenty of coaches who would be able to get the most out of the inherent talent Peters possesses.
Safe: Brandon Scherff, Tackle/Guard, Iowa
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Everything about Brandon Scherff screams "safe" pick.
He excelled at tackle at Iowa, a school known for producing top-notch offensive line talent. He's more suited to play guard, a position Miami desperately needs help at, and would fit the scheme perfectly at the position.
The size, strength, agility and athleticism needed for the guard position are there, and he's one tough guy as well.
On September 8 of last year, Scherff underwent knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He would come back later in the season for Iowa's game against cross-state rival Iowa State.
And by "later in the season," I mean the game played on September 13.
Risky: Dorial Green-Beckham, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma
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Here's the embodiment of a risky draft pick: Dorial Green-Beckham.
Regarding talent, you're looking at possibly the next Julio Jones or A.J. Green: an alpha-male receiver who catches anything thrown his way paired with the speed to make corners miss.
He's blessed with just about everything you want in a wide receiver.
It's no surprise then that the Dolphins are using their interest in him as a smokescreen "falling in love" with him, per Bleacher Report's Matt Miller.
The risks come from Green-Beckham's past, a past that anyone following this year's NFL draft can recite by rote, dealing with substance abuse, domestic violence and getting kicked off Missouri's football team.
It certainly doesn't help that Green-Beckham has not played competitive football since December 2013, when he was with Missouri.
Despite those issues, it should be noted that Green-Beckham has not been charged with any of those crimes.
Also important is that he has advocates both in Missouri and Oklahoma, including the respective head coaches at both schools.
Per Hal Habib of The Palm Beach Post, Green-Beckham, Missouri coach Greg Pinkel and the Tigers in general still maintain a friendly relationship, while Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops endorsed his decision to enter the 2015 NFL draft despite not playing a single down for the Sooners.
The same piece notes that Green-Beckham himself acknowledges that he made mistakes, but he is ready to move on.
“All the decisions I’ve made, I wish I could take it back,” Green-Beckham said. “It happened. I was young. I made mistakes. I understand that. I just want to focus on one thing and just look forward to just this draft and being the best I can be.”
If he's serious about that, then the NFL could have itself another elite wide receiver for years to come, and he could even wind up as Ryan Tannehill's No. 1 target.
Stats provided by Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
D.N.H.
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